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Bye Bye Brewer
February 19, 2010 -
When I said the Jazz needed to make a deal, this was not what I had in mind. Shortly before Wednesday’s trade deadline, Utah shipped Ronnie Brewer off to Memphis for a protected 2011 1st round pick. Yup, another salary dump. I guess they answered my question as to whether they would be buyers or sellers in this market.
Before I go any further, I want to say that I actually don’t mind this trade. While I’ve always liked Brewer, he wasn’t having a particularly strong year. Most of us were expecting him to take another step forward in his progression this season, but if anything he seems to have gone backwards. The Jazz also had a logjam of players at the wing positions with Kirilenko, Korver, Miles, and Matthews all competing with Brewer for minutes. Particularly with the way Matthews has exceeded expectations, Brewer won’t be that difficult to replace...at least on the court. Ronnie was apparently well liked by his teammates, and I just hope this trade doesn’t do anything to adversely impact team chemistry.
The real reason I don’t mind this trade is that the Jazz likely would not have been able to keep Brewer this summer anyway. With so many teams projected to have cap space, Ronnie would have most surely received an offer that Utah would be unable (or unwilling) to match. With that in mind, they did well to get a 1st-round pick for him rather than watching him walk away for no compensation.
While I don’t mind this trade, I’m upset that it was the only move Utah made. I believe the Jazz missed a golden opportunity to improve their team, and that will be the topic of my next article.
I’ll miss Brewer. Aside from the fact that he couldn’t shoot to save his life, he was a fun player to watch. I wish him all the best in Memphis.
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Andrei Kirilenko, Where Have You Been?
February 3, 2010 -
I thought we’d never see you again. That guy who looks like you – the one who has been wearing your uniform and cashing your enormous paychecks for the past few seasons – had really worn out his welcome. I was getting sick of his antics. It’s not that he did anything blatantly wrong; he just wasn’t the guy who earned a max contract extension five years ago. Not even close. He didn’t play with the same energy, passion, or plain joy that you did before you disappeared.
Anyway, I don’t know where you’ve been hiding out since 2006, but it sure is nice to have you back.
With tonight’s victory over Portland, the Jazz have now won 11 of their previous 12 games, and Kirilenko’s play is probably the single-biggest reason why. Over that stretch he averaged 14 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 1.5 blocks while shooting an impressively efficient 62% from the field. It’s been a while since he has put up numbers like that for any consistent period of time.
But AK has been even more impressive in the last 7 games (all Jazz victories), during which he averaged 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and shot an absolutely ridiculous 72% from the field. He’s also back to doing a bunch of things that don’t show up in the stat sheet (deflections, altered shots, etc) but make the Jazz a much more difficult team to beat.
Perhaps most importantly, he looks like he’s having fun out there. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen that from him, and it’s a welcomed sight.
Not too many weeks ago, I was just about ready to give up on this season. The Jazz were underachieving, and they honestly weren’t much fun to watch. I’m not quite sure what got Kirilenko and the rest of the team back on track, but I sure hope they can stay there.
Welcome back, Andrei. Please stick around this time.
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Buyers or Sellers?
January 21, 2009 -
Fact: More millionaires are made during a recession than at any other time. Why? Because resources (stocks, real estate, materials, labor, etc.) are typically available at discounted prices, and those willing to take calculated risks have the potential to reap significant rewards.
Now replace “millionaire” with “title contender,” and let’s talk about the NBA. The weak economy has put a number of teams into a difficult financial position, so much so that premium talent is available at a discount. Other teams with deeper pockets are clearly looking to take advantage of the potential fire sales offered by their cash-strapped counterparts.
The Utah Jazz are at a major crossroads right now. The young team with a promising future that reached the Western Conference Finals in 2007 has actually regressed each season since. Greg Miller and the rest of the front office must decide whether they are gong to be buyers or seller in this market.
The Maynor/Harpring “trade” was a strong indication the Jazz are looking to sell. They gave up a promising young player for nothing more than financial relief. Considering how far above the luxury tax line the Jazz were, it’s easy to understand why management felt this was a necessary move. To a fan, however, it sends the message that winning is not the top priority. And fans are the ones who buy the tickets, memorabilia, etc that generate revenue. Alienate the fans, and you lose money.
The NBA is a business. I get that. But as with any business, focusing on short-term cost cutting can end up hurting your long-term profit potential. Conversely, absorbing some short-term risk/pain can pay huge dividends down the road. If you stop investing in the future of your business, the competition will eat you alive. The best thing the Jazz can do right now from both a basketball and a financial perspective is to buy aggressively.
The Jazz have an impressive collection of tradable assets in the form of all-star talent, expiring contracts, young players with upside, and even an unprotected 1st-round pick (likely to be in the top 10). They also have a number of roster defects they need to address. Only the most optimistic fan could believe that this team as currently constituted will ever win a title. One or two aggressive deals, however, could position Utah as a championship contender for at least the next three years.
A winning team is good for the bottom line.
Perhaps most importantly, the Jazz may be able to convince a certain Olympic point guard they are committed to winning so he doesn’t skip town three years from now. In case you're reading, Greg, his departure would be extraordinarily bad for the bottom line.
(P.S. I’m still working on my list of potential trades, but I’ve already come up with numerous “realistic” deals that would make the Jazz better.)
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Jazz Need To Make A Deal
January 14, 2009 -
When asked about the potential of the Jazz making a trade before the February deadline, Jerry Sloan recently said, “I’d rather keep guys together so you have better continuity.” While that sentiment is understandable and may actually be the best course of action much of the time, it feels a little narrow-minded at the moment. The problem here is the core of this Jazz team has now been together for four seasons...and they seem to be getting worse every year.
Continuity is great if you’re winning. The Jazz are not (at least not enough).
Albert Einstein once said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The Jazz organization may not have received a clinical diagnosis yet, but the neighbors are beginning to point and whisper.
So who to trade? Honestly, for the right deal I would part with anyone on the roster aside from Deron Williams. With any trade, however, I would expect Carlos Boozer to be the centerpiece.
Many NBA analysts feel the Jazz will keep Boozer for the remainder of the season. That would be an enormous mistake, in my humble opinion. Follow my logic here:
1. The Jazz have no shot at winning the NBA title this season. In fact they’re not even in the playoff picture right now.
2. Carlos Boozer will be gone this summer. The Jazz can’t afford to pay him what he wants, and unlike this past summer, there will be a number of interested teams with the cap room to sign him.
3. It would be incredibly short-sighted to keep a player you know isn’t part of the team’s future just to potentially win a few more games this season. If the Jazz were legitimate title contenders, it would be a different story.
4. Even if they can’t get fair market value for Boozer, the Jazz would be better off receiving some kind of asset in return rather than losing an all-star for nothing.
I refuse to accept excuses from Utah’s front office that they can’t find a trade for Boozer that makes sense. I’ve heard the argument from some fans that no team will give up anything of value for Boozer when they know they could just sign him as an unrestricted free agent this summer. Again, I don't buy it. The team that traded for Boozer would have his Bird rights and be able to offer him more money and a longer contract than any other team. At worst, they would have the ability to make a sign-and-trade or free up cap room to go after another free agent.
Rod Thorne, GM of the New Jersey Nets, recently said, "if you make a deal for an expiring free agent of the major variety, you’d have to feel your chances were very good to re-sign that player." Interesting comment, as I believe New Jersey could be a legitimate trading partner. I don't know Boozer personally, but he certainly seems to be motivate by money. Pay him, and he'll sign.
I could probably come up with at least 30 “realistic” potential Boozer trades that I would willingly accept. In fact I'll try to make good on that in my next post.
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There Better Be A Second Act
December 28, 2009 -
When I learned the Jazz had just traded away Eric Maynor (along with Matt Harpring’s contract) to the Oklahoma City Thunder for nothing more than cap relief and the rights to some former 2nd-round pick who will never play in the NBA, my first thought was, “This had better only be the first move.”
The Jazz wouldn’t really trade away their promising rookie 1st-round draft pick (who also happened to be the best backup point guard they’ve had in nearly a decade) just to save a few bucks… Would they? Teams committed to winning don’t just give away young talent without getting a quality asset in return. No, the Jazz must be clearing that cap space in preparation for a bigger deal that will bring in a true impact player...
Right?
In fairness to the Jazz front office, the “few bucks” they save is actually around $12 million when you combine the salary and luxury-tax impact from dumping Harpring’s contract. That’s a lot of dough, especially for a small-market team. Still, it doesn’t exactly send the message to your season ticket holders that you are committed to winning.
Back in June, I wrote an article entitled Five Mistakes the Jazz Could Make This Summer. With this trade, Utah has now made three of those five mistakes (although they waited until winter for this one). Fortunately it’s not too late for them to repent. With one aggressive deal, the Jazz could fix all three transgressions and land back on the path to salvation. The mulit-million-dollar question (literally) is will they have the stones to make it happen? I'm skeptical.
Farewell Eric, we barely knew thee. I was disappointed when the Jazz drafted you, but you managed to change my mind in only a few short months. Best of luck in OKC, and try not to make the Jazz look too foolish for giving you away.
In the meantime, I’ll sit here waiting and hoping for Act II.
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First Quarter Season Update
December 20, 2009 –
The 2009-10 NBA season is now more than one quarter of the way complete. I give the Jazz a B-minus for their performance thus far. Utah is 16-11, good for 2nd in the Midwest division and tied with Houston for 5th in the Western Conference. If you take the glass-is-half-full perspective, you can point to the rash of injuries the team faced as a legitimate reason they don’t have a better record. You can also bring up their 3-0 record against the Spurs, and other marquee wins against the Blazers, Lakers, and Magic as cause for optimism, proving the Jazz can beat the NBA’s elite (at least at home).
On the other side of the coin, you can point to complete meltdowns in the 4th quarter of close games against good teams (Lakers, Rockets, Nuggets, Mavs). Then there are the two inexplicable losses to the inept Minnesota Timeberwolves.
Speaking of, how in the world do the Jazz beat the Lakers and the Magic (2 of the 3 best teams in the league) in consecutive outings and then turn around and lose at home to the T-Wolves (the 2nd-worst team in the league) the very next game? As of that December 14th loss to Minnesota in Utah, half of the T-Wolves 4 victories had come against the Jazz. The silver lining here is that the Jazz only have one additional loss to a sub-500 team (Sacramento), and the Kings are actually surprisingly respectable with a 12-14 record.
One word basically sums up Utah's theme thus far – inconsistency. The Jazz have been pulling a Jekyll-and-Hyde act all season. You just never know which team is going to show up on a given night. In my 2009-10 Season Preview article, I noted a high level of uncertainty about how the Jazz would perform this year. The first quarter of the season has done nothing to change that opinion. Below are a few of my random observations:
Bright Spots:
- Deron Williams - DWill is playing great and has looked like a true superstar at times. It will be a true crime if he doesn't get his first all-star bid this season.
- Carlos Boozer – Booz has returned to his all-star form, has remained healthy, and is playing better defense than in previous seasons.
Disappointments:
- Kosta Koufos – I really expected him to have a breakout year, and he hasn’t even been able to get off the bench.
- Ronnie Brewer – He hasn’t played poorly, but his production is down over last season despite playing more minutes. I was hoping for further improvement, but he may have already peaked.
Surprises:
- Wesley Matthews – He may not have even made the roster had Korver and Miles not gotten injured in the preseason, yet he managed to win the starting SG position and has been hailed as the best defender on the team.
- Eric Maynor – I made no bones about my disappointment with Utah’s draft selection, but Maynor has shown solid potential and plays with poise beyond his years.
Things to watch:
- Minutes - How will Sloan integrate CJ Miles and Kyle Korver back into the lineup now that they are healthy? Will a full roster actually hurt the team since there will be fewer minutes to go around?
- Trades – Will the Jazz make a move before the February trade deadline? Should they? I’ll speculate/opine on that in my next update.
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Lineupology
December 8, 2009 -
The Utah Jazz didn’t exactly explode out of the blocks to start the 2009-10 season. While they are playing better now, it took them 13 games to get above .500 for the first time. Much of the slow start could be attributed (once again) to injuries. The absence of their two best shooters (Korver and Miles) really hurt them, as evidenced by the steady dose of zone defense they saw from opponents.
But the problems run deeper than that. Plain and simple, the Jazz have a flawed roster. The team has plenty of talent, but the players don’t complement each other particularly well. While the best long-term solution would be to make a trade or two (something I hope to see happen prior to the February deadline, but I’ll save those thoughts for another post), let’s assume for now that the roster remains the same. Sloan can still mitigate some of the problems by using the right mix of players together and avoiding certain problem combinations:
Problem Combo #1 – Boozer and Okur make possibly the weakest defensive frontcourt tandem in the entire league. While both are talented offensive players, neither is a shot blocker, neither is a strong individual defender, and both are horrible at help defense.
Problem Combo #2 – Brewer and Kirilenko make one of the worst-shooting wing tandems in the league. While both are athletic, exciting players, neither can stretch a defense nor be counted on as a consistent scoring threat.
Unfortunately, Jerry Sloan was playing both of these combinations together in the starting lineup of Williams, Brewer, Kirilenko, Boozer, and Okur at the beginning of the year. In fairness to Sloan, he has been somewhat limited by the numerous injuries and illnesses that have left the roster depleted all season. Ironically, it was injury and illness that basically forced Sloan into what I believe is the most effective starting lineup for the Jazz, which I’ll outline in a minute.
Since I know Sloan values my opinion, I’ve created a set of basic rules for him to use when determining his lineup combinations. They are as follows:
Rule #1 – Always have at least one shot blocker and one 3-point shooter on the floor at all times
Rule #2 – Avoid playing Boozer and Okur at the same time whenever possible
Rule #2A – When Booz and Memo do play together, Kirilenko should also be on the floor to ensure at least one shot blocker in the frontcourt
Rule #3 – Avoid playing Kirilenko and Brewer at the same time
Rule #3A – If AK and Brew must play together, Memo should also be on the court to ensure at least one 3-point shooter.
In my humble opinion, the best starting lineup for the Jazz right now is Williams (PG), Matthews (SG), Brewer (SF), Boozer (PF), and Fesenko (C), leaving Maynor (PG), Miles (SG), Kirilenko (SF), Millsap (PF) and Okur (C) coming off the bench. Minutes would be distributed as follows:
PG – Williams (38), Maynor (10)
SG – Matthews (24), Miles (24)
SF – Brewer (24), Kirilenko (24)
PF – Boozer (24), Millsap (24)
C – Fesenko (12), Okur (26), Boozer (10)
This distribution would severely limit the amount of time either of the aforementioned problem combos would need to be on the floor together. Minutes at the wing positions would essentially be up for grabs depending on matchups and who was playing better on a given night.
Sloan will have some tough choices to make when Korver and Price get healthy again, leaving a huge logjam in the backcourt. This is one reason why exploring a trade is still the best option. I’ll share my thoughts on that soon.
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Blog Format Change
December 2, 2009 -
With apologies to my loyal readers (I really appreciate both of you), I'm going to make a format change to my blog. While I had intended to provide a breif recap after each Jazz game, I just haven't been able to keep up. With my work and family schedule, I rarely get to watch the games live. Although my DVR (unquestionably one of the greatest inventions in the history of mankind) still makes it possible for me catch nearly every game, sometimes I don't watch them until a day or two after the fact. At that point, a game recap feels pretty dated.
With family in town for Thanksgiving, I've gotten way behind. Rather than trying to play catch up, I'm going to discontinue the regular game recaps. That will give me more time and flexibility to share my brilliant insight on topics and trends not specific to individual games. I may still do an occasional recap when I get the chance to watch a live game, but they will be the exception rather than the rule.
Thanks for understanding, and please keep the comments coming (or start them, as the case may be...)
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