Showing posts with label Raja Bell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Raja Bell. Show all posts
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Quarter Season Update
December 3, 2010 -
In my preseason preview post, I made what I felt was a pretty optimistic prediction of 55 wins for the Jazz this season. Somehow, the Jazz have actually managed to exceed that pace with a 15-5 record through the first 20 games of the season. With so many new players on the roster, I actually expected them to struggle somewhat early on. Sometimes it's nice to be wrong.
I won't take the time now to go through a full analysis of the team, but instead I'll identify a few players who are exceeding, meeting, and falling short of my expectations thus far. I won't cover everyone on the roster -- just those who have stood out in one way or another in my mind.
Exceeding Expectations
Deron Williams – After a bit of a slow start, he’s now playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. Dude is amazing.
Paul Millsap – I expected him to take a back seat to Jefferson. Was I ever wrong. His offensive game has really evolved (just ask the Miami Heat), and he just keeps getting better.
Meeting Expectations
CJ Miles – I almost put him in the top category, but he just hasn’t developed that consistency yet. He continues to show flashes of brilliance but still mixes in too many no-show performances. He’s definitely improving, though.
Al Jefferson – Big Al has exceeded my expectations in some areas (defense) and fallen short in others (rebounding). All in all, he’s about where I expected him to be 20 games into his Jazz tenure. He should continue improving, and he’ll need to for the Jazz to be serious contenders.
Andrei Kirilenko – While there’s always a part of me that’s disappointed when AK consistently fails to be the player he was 5 years ago, he is meeting my expectations if not my hopes.
Falling Short
Gordon Hayward – I was livid when the Jazz drafted him. He began to change my mind a little with his solid performance during summer league. Then he teased me with his 26-point outburst against the Lakers during preseason. Unfortunately he’s done nothing since. It’s still early, but I expect more from the #9 pick.
Raja Bell – I’m basing this solely on his on-court performance and not his locker room impact, which I think is invaluable. Bell is simply not shooting well enough. With the loss of Korver and Matthews, the Jazz desperately need Raja's outside shot.
In summary, this team seems to be coming together a little ahead of schedule. That said, I’m sticking with my prediction of 55 wins. The West is just too good. The Jazz managed to win a few games they probably shouldn’t have, and they’ll need better play out of their wings in particular if they want to keep up the current pace.
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Utah Jazz Season Preview 2010-11
October 25, 2010 -
With the Jazz set to begin playing games that actually count on Wednesday, it’s time for my annual season preview. Heading into last year, I wasn’t feeling much optimism. I expected more of the same: a good-but-not-great regular season followed by an early playoff exit. I officially predicted Utah would win 54 games, earn a 4th seed in the West, and lose easily to the Lakers in the 2nd round. The Jazz simply didn’t have a championship-caliber roster. That fact had been evident to me for quite some time.
My forecast was eerily accurate. Utah won 53 games, landed the 5th seed in the Western Conference (actually tied for 4th), and was unceremoniously swept by LA in the conference semis. Despite the fact they finished only 2 regular-season wins short of the 2nd seed in the uber-competitive West and managed to upset the heavily favored Nuggets (my second most-hated team behind the loathsome Lakers) in the opening round of the playoffs, the Jazz never really looked like a title contender.
Heading into the 2010-11 season, my mood is completely transformed. Considering how many key players the Jazz lost this summer, optimism is somewhat of an unexpected emotion. Three months ago I was ready to give up on Utah’s front office, calling them complacent and content with mediocrity. Now I’m signing their praises.
Let’s start with a statistical recap of last season, followed by my 2010-11 projections:
2009-10 Record: 53-29 (1st-tie in Northwest Division; 4th-tie in Western Conference; Lost in 2nd round of playoffs)
2009-10 Statistical Leaders:
Points: Carlos Boozer (19.5)
Rebounds: Carlos Boozer (11.2)
Assists: Deron Williams (10.5)
Steals: Andrei Kirilenko (1.43)
Blocks: Andrei Kirilenko (1.22)
FG%: Carlos Boozer (56.2%)
3Pt%: Kyle Korver (53.6%)
FT%: Wesley Matthews (82.9%)
Key Additions: Al Jefferson (trade), Raja Bell (free agent), Earl Watson (free agent), Francisco Elson (free agent), Gordon Hayward (1st-round pick), Jeremy Evans (2nd-round pick)
Key Subtractions: Carlos Boozer (free agency), Wesley Matthews (free agency), Kyle Korver (free agency), Kosta Koufos (trade), Ronnie Brewer (trade), Eric Maynor (trade)
Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup:
Deron Williams (PG), Raja Bell (SG), Andrei Kirilenko (SF), Paul Millsap (PF), Al Jefferson (C)
2010-11 Roster/Depth Chart
PG – Deron Williams, Earl Watson, Ronnie Price
SG – Raja Bell, CJ Miles
SF – Andrei Kirilenko, Gordon Hayward, Jeremy Evans
PF – Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur
C – Al Jefferson, Kyrylo Fesenko, Francisco Elson
Team Strengths
Point Guard – D-Will is the best in the business, and he keeps getting better. The addition of Earl Watson brings an experienced vet to man the ship while Deron gets a breather, which should take off some pressure. Utah will outclass virtually every team at this position.
Interior Scoring – The Jazz always have one of the highest FG% in the league, as their offense is designed to create layups and easy shots. Jefferson, Millsap, and Kirilenko will be a tough frontline for opposing defenses to contain.
Coaching – Despite the fact he’s regularly snubbed for COY, Sloan is a deserving hall-of-famer who demands (and usually receives) the best from his players. This year he actually has the right pieces to work with.
Home Court – There isn’t a more difficult place to play (according to NBA GMs) than Energy Solutions Arena.
Roster Flexibility – Almost every player on the Jazz roster can play multiple positions, giving Sloan the flexibility to create mismatches and exploit opponent weaknesses. The Jazz have at least five realistic options at every position:
PG – Williams, Watson, Price, Hayward, Kirilenko, Miles
SG – Bell, Miles, Price, Williams, Watson, Hayward, Kirilenko
SF – Kirilenko, Miles, Hayward, Bell, Evans
PF – Millsap, Kirilenko, Jefferson, Okur, Evans, Elson
C – Jefferson, Fesenko, Okur, Elson, Millsap
Concerns
Wing scoring – Will anyone step up and provide consistent scoring from the wing? It’s been five years since a Jazz wing averaged over 14 points per game, and that was Kirilenko (who is more of a tandem forward). It’s been over 10 years since a Jazz shooting guard did it, and that was Jeff Hornacek. Utah desperately needs consistent scoring from the wing, whether from a single player or by committee.
Interior defense – While the loss of Boozer (who played defense like a 6-year-old girl) should be addition by subtraction in this area, Jefferson isn’t exactly known as a defensive stopper. He is bigger than Boozer, however, and will block and alter more shots. This was a major weakness last year but did appear improved during the preseason. Still, it’s an area of concern until proven otherwise.
Outside shooting – Particularly with Okur out to start the season, this may be a deficiency. Korver is gone (you can’t help but miss a guy who shoots over 50% from behind the arc), and so is Matthews (38% from 3). Bell and CJ will need to light it up to prevent this from becoming a glaring weakness.
Wildcards
CJ Miles – The Jazz lost three key wings from last season: Matthews, Korver, and Brewer. CJ isn’t the athlete Brewer was, the defender Matthews was, or the shooter Korver was. BUT, he is capable of doing all three of those things in combination better than any of the aforementioned players. Miles appears slotted for a 6th-man role this season, and Utah will need his scoring punch off the bench. If he has the breakout year Jazz fans have been waiting for…
Andrei Kirilenko – Can he stay healthy, physically and mentally? It’s tough to place a value on AK when he plays with confidence and consistency. He’s a game changer. At his best, Kirilenko paired with Williams and Jefferson gives the Jazz a “Big 3” on par with anyone but the Superfriends in Miami (and Utah has a much better supporting cast).
Mehmet Okur – When and how well will he come back from that Achilles injury? If truly healthy, Memo could be an outstanding weapon off the bench at either the 4 or 5 spot.
Player Projections
This is the part where I gaze into my crystal ball (which happens to be a fish bowl that really needs cleaning) and predict individual performances for the season:
Deron Williams established himself as the top PG in the league last season, and he’ll keep that title this year. While his Team-USA buddies whine for trades and collude to join forces in big markets, Deron will quietly deliver an MVP-caliber performance.
Al Jefferson received a guarantee when he came to Utah that Deron Williams would make him an all-star. That promise will be fulfilled in February when Big Al is named an all-star reserve by the coaches. Jefferson will take a few months to achieve peak performance, but he’ll be a regular 20/10 machine by 2011.
Paul Millsap won’t improve much statistically from last season, but he will continue his progression as a player. Sap will be the perfect complement to Jefferson, bringing consistent hustle, energy, and toughness to the front line.
Andrei Kirilenko will have his best season since 2005-06. Though he won’t match his statistical totals from that year, he will have an invaluable impact on games and be a major catalyst to Utah’s success. Despite the potential trade value of his expiring contract, AK will finish the season a Jazzman.
Raja Bell will benefit the team with intangibles as much as he does with his defense and outside shooting. Similar to AK, his stats won’t convey the full value of his presence. Raja’s attitude will help revive the culture of toughness from Jazz teams of the past that seemed to have disappeared in recent seasons.
Mehmet Okur will struggle a little bit and probably have his worst statistical year in a Jazz uniform. Part of this will be due to his injury, and part will be due to a lack of minutes created by the play of Jefferson, Millsap, Kirilenko, and even Fesenko. Still, he will be a valuable contributor off the bench and will win a few games for the Jazz with his clutch shooting.
CJ Miles will finally almost become the player Jazz fans have been hoping he would become since he was drafted straight out of high school five years ago. Though nothing to generate all-star chatter, CJ will have something that could qualify as a breakout year. He won’t, however, deliver quite the needed consistency to make the Jazz true title contenders.
Gordon Hayward will look like a ROY candidate one game and a D-Leaguer the next. Still, Gordon will make a meaningful contribution throughout the season and validate Utah’s decision to make him the 9th pick in the draft (can’t believe I actually said that).
Earl Watson will start slow but finish strong. He will have some fans clamoring for Price early on, but by the all-star break Watson will be the best back-up PG in Utah since Howard Eisley (on his first tour of duty) played behind Stockton.
Kyrylo Fesenko will continue to drive Sloan nuts and remind Jazz fans of a more-athletic Ostertag by looking brilliant one night and failing to show up the next. Even so, Fess will have by far his beast season to date and will be a key cog in the second unit.
Francisco Elson will make KOC look smart. He will more than earn his vet-minimum salary by providing defense, rebounding, and toughness in limited minutes. In fact, he’ll become a fan favorite by getting under the skin of opposing players—something he managed to do twice in the preseason despite only playing in two games.
Ronnie Price will make Sloan wish he had more minutes to dole out. His playing time will be hampered by the presence of Watson, but Price will still find a way to contribute, bringing energy and hustle.
Jeremy Evans will once again make KOC and the Jazz scouting department appear brilliant. This 2nd-round gem will spend time in Orem but will actually work his way into some minutes as the season progresses. Portland is probably already preparing a toxic contract offer for him when he becomes a restricted free agent.
Putting It All Together
Three months ago I never would have imagined saying this, but this Jazz team could actually contend for a title. I didn’t like the roster composition of last year’s team. They were too small, too soft, and didn’t have the right chemistry. Hate to single anyone out, but Utah simply was not going to win on the delicate back of Carlos Boozer.
Following a masterfully orchestrated offseason by Kevin O’Connor, Utah now has the pieces in place to be a legitimate title contender. BUT (and this is a Charles Barkley-sized but), it will take everyone staying healthy and playing up their potential to make it happen. Realistically, I think the Jazz are still a couple of years away.
Based on where the “experts” are predicting them to finish, however, they'll be a lot closer than most people think this season.
Projected 2010-11 Record: 55-27
(1st in Northwest division, 2nd in Western Conference, lose to Lakers in Western Conference Finals)
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Utah Jazz Offseason Grade
September 24, 2010 -
At one point during the first part of July, the Jazz appeared headed for disaster. They had lost four key contributors from the team that began the 2009-10 season (Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and Eric Maynor) and got no one back in return. Thanks to the Portland Trailblazers, who seem to have made it their mission to offer oversized, front-loaded contracts to all of Utah’s restricted free agents, the Jazz were on the verge of losing a fifth (Wesley Matthews). To make matters worse, Utah was still over the salary cap and therefore didn’t have the means to pursue any marquee free agents from other teams. The future looked bleak, raising fears that Deron Williams would soon want out. The logical next steps were for Sloan to announce his retirement, Nuskin to drop their sponsorship of the Jazz Dancers, and the ESA scoreboard to crash down on center court.
Just as the last glimmers of hope were flickering out, Kevin O’Connor ducked into a phone booth, exchanged his suit for some purple and green tights, and emerged as Super GM. (OK, that was lame, but KOC really did pull off a minor miracle when all seemed lost.) Over the remainder of the summer, the Jazz did more than just salvage their offseason—they somehow managed to actually improve their roster over last year.
It all started with a move that reminded me of the Lakers’ infamous “trade” with Memphis to acquire Pau Gasol for a ham sandwich and a bag of stale chips (about which I’ve always wondered who in the LA front office had incriminating photos of whom in the Memphis front office). The Jazz managed to steal Al Jefferson from Minnesota for Kosta Koufos, 2 protected 1st round draft picks, and a trade exception. Sucks to be a T-Wolves fan.
Jefferson is a beast. While it may take him a while to get comfortable with the new system, he should eventually have no trouble replacing Boozer’s scoring and rebounding. Plus he’s bigger and younger. This was a clear upgrade.
Next, the Jazz brought back Raja Bell on a free agent contract. Bell should be able to replace Matthews production for about a third of the price. He also brings leadership and toughness that the Jazz have been lacking in recent years.
After trading for Jefferson and signing Bell, I fully expected the Jazz to round out their roster with rookies and D-leaguers just to keep the tax bill to a minimum. But KOC wasn’t finished. First, he signed 7-footer Francisco Elson who will give the Jazz additional size and athleticism behind Jefferson at center. I don’t expect too much from Elson, but with Okur likely to miss the first part of the season, this was an important signing.
Finally, the Jazz shored up another weakness by signing Earl Watson to backup Williams at the point. I was actually thrilled with this move. Watson is a tough defender and can run an offense effectively. Though he won’t see much playing time behind Williams, he gives the Jazz exactly what they need—a savvy vet to prevent the game from slipping away while Deron gets a breather.
In my 20+ years as a Jazz fan, I don’t ever recall a roster makeover quite this drastic. I’ve been screaming for Utah to make some moves for a few years now, and they finally did it. I really like this team on paper. The Jazz definitely got bigger and tougher. The biggest question is how well will they jell together?
Training camp starts next week, so we'll find out soon enough. If this group can develop the right chemistry, they could really make some noise.
Additions: Al Jefferson (trade), Raja Bell (FA), Francisco Elson (FA), Earl Watson (FA), Gordon Hayward (draft), Jeremy Evans (draft)
Subtractions: Carlos Boozer (FA - Chicago), Wesley Matthews (FA - Portland), Kyle Korver (FA - Chicago), Ronnie Brewer (trade – Memphis), Eric Maynor (trade – OKC), Kosta Koufos (trade – Minny)
Offseason Grade: A-minus. They certainly exceeded my expectations and made the most of a potentially devastating situation. Had the Jazz managed to keep Wesley Matthews, they would have earned an A.
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Jazz Aren't Title Contenders...Yet
August 2, 2010 -
I was just about ready to throw in the towel on the Jazz front office, declaring them content to mire in mediocrity and unwilling to take the risks necessary to build a true title contender. Supporting my case was a mound of evidence compiled over the past 18 months in the form of trades that never happened, deals that occurred simply for financial reasons, and free agents lost for seemingly nothing.
The last month has changed things considerably and proven that Greg Miller is indeed committed to more than just frugality. He wants to win, and as a fan, that’s what I needed to know.
Trading for “Big Al” Jefferson and signing Raja Bell was a huge step in the right direction, but I’m not yet ready to declare the Jazz title contenders. Here is my assessment on the current team needs:
- Post defender / shot blocker (Can that be Fess?)
- Backup PG (If only we still had Eric Maynor…)
- Outside shooting (Can CJ step up? Is Hayward ready to replace Korver?)
- Wing scoring (Still looking for Hornacek’s replacement after all these years)
Here's how I see the minutes shaking out to start the season with the current roster (and assuming Memo is still injured):
DWill (38), Price (10)
Bell (32), CJ (16)
AK (24), CJ (12), Hayward (12)
Millsap (36), AK (12)
Jefferson (36), Fess (12)
That’s not a bad looking lineup. Depending on the team chemistry and whether or not individual guys play to their potential, they could be as good as most anyone in the West. Still, I think the Jazz could become the primary contender to the Lakers with one or two more moves. Let's breakdown the weaknesses:
Defensive C
While Jefferson should be an upgrade over Boozer, he’s definitely not known for his defense. The Jazz still lack an intimidating presence in the middle. The best solution would be for Fesenko to evolve into that player, but I don’t really expect that to happen.
The wild card here is Ante Tomic. How good do the Jazz think he will be, and will he come over for the 2011-12 season? I can see Utah being hesitant to trade for immediate help if they believe their center of the future is already in the organization and ready to contribute next year.
Backup PG
Price is OK, but there is usually a noticeable drop off when he comes in for Deron. I’m still sick about the Maynor trade, as the Jazz would be rock solid at the point if he were still on the team. As it stands, any extended injury to Williams would kill this team. If Utah could figure out how to add a vet like Earl Watson, they would be well served to make it happen.
Outside Shooting
On the bright side, at least Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko can’t start together on the wings. On the not-so-bright side, Utah lost the NBA’s best 3-point shooter in Korver. Fortunately, the additions of Bell and Hayward should help ease the blow. The key here, however, is CJ Miles. He has a sweet stroke but a surprisingly low shooting percentage from behind the arc (34%). If CJ and Bell can both shoot near 40% (Bell is a career 41% 3-pt shooter), and Deron and Memo maintain their previous levels, the Jazz should be fine from the outside. Unless an obvious deal presents itself, I wouldn’t prioritize bringing in another shooter right now.
Wing Scoring
Similar to outside shooting, CJ Miles may be the key here. If he can finally have that breakout year that we’ve all been waiting for, he might become the consistent 3rd-scoring option the Jazz have been lacking since Hornacek retired. The other possibility is Kirilenko. We know he has it in him, but can he stay healthy AND focused for an entire season? I don’t have faith that either of those will happen, let alone both. With that in mind (and assuming Hayward won’t be ready to make a meaningful contribution), if the Jazz have the opportunity to acquire a top-tier wing -- even at some sacrifice -- they should strongly consider it.
The million dollar question is which of Utah’s weaknesses can be improved from within, and which will require a move or two to remedy?
As much as Utah needs a defensive post presence, swapping Boozer for Jefferson and giving more minutes to Fesenko should yield an improvement. Couple that with the potential that Ante Tomic could join the team next year, and it might not make much sense to prioritize going after another center.
I honestly think the team’s biggest need right now is a consistent scoring threat on the wing. If Andrei Kirilenko returns to his all-star form of 6 years ago, the Jazz are an immediate title contender. There are few players in the league I would rather have than AK at his best. This is the guy who averaged over 16 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists to go with nearly 3 blocks, and 2 steals per game. He was amazing to watch.
Unfortunately I don’t believe we will ever see that Andrei again, at least for any extended period. He’s still a valuable player, but the Jazz need someone more consistent to anchor the wing and provide a third scoring option behind Deron and Al.
I don’t expect the Jazz to make another move this offseason, other than to round out the roster with minimum-salary players. But I do hope they keep their eyes open for someone like an Andre Iguodala who could be available at a discount. An all-star-caliber wing like that would give the Jazz a triple threat as good as any in the league.
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Raja Bell Is Back
July 22, 2010 -
I’m still bitter about losing Wesley Matthews to the Blazers, but learning that Raja Bell has decided to sign with the Jazz is a nice consolation prize. What makes it all the more sweet is the fact that in opting for Utah, Bell rejected a personal sales pitch from Kobe Bryant to join the Lakers.
If you want to know why Kobe wanted Raja on his team, just take a look at the picture. In reference to that incident, I would normally lose respect for a player who laid a clothesline on an opponent in the middle of a game. But since Bell did this to Kobe Bryant, I’m completely fine with it. In fact, I respect him more for it. (For those not familiar with the situation, Bell was heavily provoked by cheap elbows from Kobe throughout the entire series. And yes, Bell was ejected and suspended for the maneuver.)
I was sorely disappointed when Bell left the Jazz to sign with the Suns 5 years ago, and I’m thrilled to have him back now. With Matthews gone, the Jazz desperately need his defense. With Korver gone, the Jazz need his 3-point shooting. But most of all, the Jazz need his toughness. Welcome back, Raja.
Gotta hand it to Kevin O'Connor. He's taken what was shaping up to be a disastrous offseason and turned it into something pretty exciting.
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