Showing posts with label Gordon Hayward. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gordon Hayward. Show all posts
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Quarter Season Update
December 3, 2010 -
In my preseason preview post, I made what I felt was a pretty optimistic prediction of 55 wins for the Jazz this season. Somehow, the Jazz have actually managed to exceed that pace with a 15-5 record through the first 20 games of the season. With so many new players on the roster, I actually expected them to struggle somewhat early on. Sometimes it's nice to be wrong.
I won't take the time now to go through a full analysis of the team, but instead I'll identify a few players who are exceeding, meeting, and falling short of my expectations thus far. I won't cover everyone on the roster -- just those who have stood out in one way or another in my mind.
Exceeding Expectations
Deron Williams – After a bit of a slow start, he’s now playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. Dude is amazing.
Paul Millsap – I expected him to take a back seat to Jefferson. Was I ever wrong. His offensive game has really evolved (just ask the Miami Heat), and he just keeps getting better.
Meeting Expectations
CJ Miles – I almost put him in the top category, but he just hasn’t developed that consistency yet. He continues to show flashes of brilliance but still mixes in too many no-show performances. He’s definitely improving, though.
Al Jefferson – Big Al has exceeded my expectations in some areas (defense) and fallen short in others (rebounding). All in all, he’s about where I expected him to be 20 games into his Jazz tenure. He should continue improving, and he’ll need to for the Jazz to be serious contenders.
Andrei Kirilenko – While there’s always a part of me that’s disappointed when AK consistently fails to be the player he was 5 years ago, he is meeting my expectations if not my hopes.
Falling Short
Gordon Hayward – I was livid when the Jazz drafted him. He began to change my mind a little with his solid performance during summer league. Then he teased me with his 26-point outburst against the Lakers during preseason. Unfortunately he’s done nothing since. It’s still early, but I expect more from the #9 pick.
Raja Bell – I’m basing this solely on his on-court performance and not his locker room impact, which I think is invaluable. Bell is simply not shooting well enough. With the loss of Korver and Matthews, the Jazz desperately need Raja's outside shot.
In summary, this team seems to be coming together a little ahead of schedule. That said, I’m sticking with my prediction of 55 wins. The West is just too good. The Jazz managed to win a few games they probably shouldn’t have, and they’ll need better play out of their wings in particular if they want to keep up the current pace.
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Do Preseason Wins Mean Anything?
October 20, 2010 -
I’ve never been one to put much stock in preseason results. These games are less about winning and more about fine-tuning rosters, evaluating young players, and experimenting with lineup combinations. Starters rarely play more than 30 minutes, and the best players are rarely on the floor at the end, even in close games.
That said, with last night's victory over the Lakers the Jazz are now 7-0 in the preseason, with 5 of those victories coming on the road and 6 coming against 2009-10 playoff teams. That’s gotta count for something, right?
Turns out there is a positive correlation (rated at 0.4 for you stats geeks) between preseason wins and regular-season performance. Since 2004-05, teams that post a winning record in the preseason have made the playoffs 65% of the time, whereas only 38% of teams with a losing preseason record made the postseason. Taking it a step further, every team that has gone undefeated or had only one loss during the preseason made the playoffs. Only one team, the 2007-08 Cavs, earned a playoffs berth after posting one win or less in the preseason.
While I’m encouraged by those statistics, I’m much more excited by the way the new-look Jazz have played than the fact that they have yet to lose. For example:
- I’m excited that Al Jefferson was able to frustrate (if not dominate) Pau Gasol at both ends of the court -- something Boozer could never dream of doing
- I’m excited that Andrei Kirilenko is playing with more confidence than I’ve seen from him in years
- I’m excited that baby-faced Gordon Hayward dropped 26 points on the Lakers (primarily against their starters) while showing off an array of all-around skills
- I’m excited that CJ Miles is embracing his new 6th-man role and providing a much-needed scoring punch off the bench
- I’m excited that Fesenko looks fitter, faster, and more focused than I've ever seen
- I’m excited that Jeremy Evans -- who can jump out of the gym -- is playing light years beyond my wildest expectations and could actually work his way into the rotation this season
- I’m excited that team defense seems to be improving as the preseason progresses
I could actually keep going, and that’s a testament to how good this team has looked. All these positive observations mean much more to me than an undefeated preseason record.
Still, I’d much be 7-0 than 0-7.
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Jazz-Suns Preseason Impressions
October 15, 2010 -
I came home from work yesterday to a pleasant surprise: The Jazz/Suns preseason game was televised (in HD) on League Pass. This was my first opportunity to actually watch the new-look team (referring both to the uniforms and the new players), so needless to say I was excited.
After watching the game, I’m still excited.
Recognizing that a single preseason game is hardly a valid sample size, here’s my analysis, player by player, of what I saw last night.
Let's start with the new guys:
Al Jefferson: I have officially added Minnesota GM David Kahn to my Christmas card list for the absolute gift he gave us this summer. Jefferson is a beast. Watching him go to work in the post was a thing of beauty. It’s so nice to have a player you can throw the ball into and expect him to score. His footwork, ball fakes, and touch around the basket are superb. Without a double team, he scored at almost every opportunity.
I was surprised at the fluidity of his mid-range shot. His passing, believed to be one of his weaknesses, looked solid to me. He had 3 assists, including a beauty to a cutting Millsap for a layup.
I was literally giddy after witnessing Jefferson’s performance. I know it’s just the preseason, but he was unstoppable in the post. Once he gets a little more comfortable in the system, I could see him averaging 25 points per game. Yes, he looked that good. Carlos Boozer will not be missed. Period.
Gordon Hayward: On the one hand, he definitely looked like a rookie. On the other hand, he showed me enough positives to make me feel he will turn into a legit player. I’m just not sure how long it will take.
He wasn’t abused on defense the way I feared he might be. On offense, his shot wasn’t falling and he clearly struggled to finish through contact. He seemed to be thinking too much and probably still has some nerves. He did, however, show some great court vision and passing skills. The ball doesn’t stop when it comes to him. He seems to understand the offense already, which is a great sign. I’m still not convinced the Jazz made the right pick, but I’m also not convinced they didn’t.
Jeremy Evans: Holy freakin’ pogo stick! This kid can jump. High. Evans was probably the player I was most excited to watch after reading about his freakish athleticism. He didn’t disappoint. The guy is just instant energy. While I originally expected Evans to spend the year with the Flash (if he even made the final roster), I now think he may crack the rotation at some point. Last night he had 12 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals, and 1 assist… in only 13 minutes. He needs polish and he needs muscle, but this kid has a bright future. KOC found another 2nd-round steal.
Earl Watson: I was thrilled when the Jazz signed him. He didn’t show me much last night, although he did have 4 assists with no turnovers. It will take a while for him to get comfortable, but I think he’ll be a solid backup for Deron. I love his intensity on defense.
Raja Bell: Good to have him back in a Jazz uniform. Didn’t do much statistically, but you can tell he just fits on this team.
Now for the incumbents:
Deron Williams: He was solid but not spectacular. You can tell he has another gear that he simply hasn’t engaged yet because there is no reason to. His play was a little sloppy, but his brilliance still shone through at times. I expect an MVP-caliber year from him.
Andrei Kirilenko: What is up with the hair? A few more inches and he’ll have the full Fabio. Aside from that, he looked good. Nothing we haven’t seen before. He does so many things that don’t show up in the box score, and last night was no exception.
Paul Millsap: He had a solid game. Didn’t have a particularly eye-popping stat line, but he looked good. While Jefferson’s presence will probably hurt his stats a little, I think their games will actually complement each other pretty well.
Kyrylo Fesenko: Fess actually looks quite a bit better to me. I heard he dropped 20 pounds, and it really shows with his improved mobility. He is amazingly quick and agile for a player his size. He still makes boneheaded mistakes, but this performance gave me hope that he may actually have a breakout season.
CJ Miles: He looked OK. Not a great game, but definitely not a poor one. He was 2 for 2 from behind the arc, so that’s a bonus. I may have my expectations a little too high for CJ, mostly because I think the Jazz will really need him this year. I hope he finds his groove quickly.
Ronnie Price: Barely played and didn’t take a shot. I think we know what to expect from him by now.
Everybody Else (Gaines, Jeffers, Thompson, Nichols): These four are competing for what will likely be a single, final roster spot. None of them particularly stood out last night. Gaines is a long shot simply because Utah already has 3 PGs with guaranteed contracts (Williams, Price, Watson). Jeffers plays hard but is undersized (I think he got his shot blocked 3 or 4 times). I didn’t really get much of a feel either way for Thompson or Nichols, so I have no opinion yet as to whom I prefer.
In summary, I was pretty impressed with the team as a whole. They still have rough edges as would be expected with so many new faces. Still, something just feels good about this group. Can’t wait to watch more of them and see how accurate my first impressions prove to be.
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From Offseason to Preseason
October 6, 2010 -
Kevin O’Connor did his job. Now it’s Jerry Sloan’s turn.
Following one of the busiest offseasons in team history, the Utah Jazz are now officially in preseason mode. Sloan has the not-insignificant task of integrating a plethora (can’t ever use that word without thinking of El Guapo on The Three Amigos) of new faces, most of whom will be expected to contribute in a big way. This was by no stretch of the imagination a typical Jazz summer.
To put things in perspective, it’s entirely possible that Deron Williams will be the only Jazz player to start the first game of both the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. That’s big change, especially for a conservative franchise like Utah. You have to go back five years (Deron’s rookie season) to find the last time 3 starters changed from one season to the next. The Jazz have never changed 4 starters over one season in my 20+ years as a fan.
To put it lightly, Sloan has his work cut out for him.
That said, this may end up being one of his easier coaching years in recent history. Why, you ask? Because looking at this roster, I see more toughness and fewer egos. I see guys who are committed to working hard and getting better. I see guys who actually want to be on this team and seem to genuinely like each other. Music to Jerry's ears.
(I also see more size and athleticism than I ever recall seeing on a Utah team, but I’ll save that for another post.)
It can be tough to separate fact from fiction in the world of blogs and internet bulletin boards, but from everything I gather, this team seems to be on the same page. The new guys are all saying the right things, and the “inside” scoop is that all the players are particularly high on Jefferson, Hayward, and 2nd-round pick, Jeremy Evans.
I’m not ready to make my season predictions yet (I’ll wait to watch a few preseason games before doing that), but I’m feeling optimistic. Jerry has a big job to do, but I think he’ll do it well. And I think he’ll enjoy it.
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Gordon Hayward - Second Impression
July 11, 2010 -
If you read my last post, you know how I felt about the Utah Jazz drafting Gordon Hayward. Since then, I had the chance to catch a few of Utah’s games during the Orlando Summer League this past week. While I still feel the Jazz made a mistake in the draft, I did at least come away somewhat more encouraged about Hayward.
His stats weren’t exactly attention grabbing, but Hayward played solidly and efficiently. I definitely get the sense he will be a much better player when surrounded by other good players. He plays a team game that is not effectively showcased in the less-structured summer-league environment. To his credit, he didn’t resort to the selfish tactics displayed by some of his teammates and generally stayed within the offense. The unfortunate result is that he didn’t get nearly the amount of touches I would’ve hoped for from the 9th pick in the draft.
Here is my general assessment of Hayward’s performance in the three games I watched:
Positives- Poise and confidence – He played under control and didn’t seem intimidated (despite the fact that he looks like a boy among men)
- Shooting – He definitely has a nice stroke, and he shot over 50% for the week
- Basketball IQ – He seems to have a great understanding of the game and generally made smart, team-oriented plays
- Ball Handling – He has a good handle for a 6’8” player and made a few nice moves with the ball
Cons- Strength – He appeared physically outmatched at times
- Athleticism – I’m not sure he will be able to get to the hoop against most NBA wings
- Upside – Tough to judge this from a handful of summer league games, but I just don’t see this kid ever being more than a decent NBA role player
Of the three games I watched, I was particularly interested in Utah’s matchup with Indiana. The Pacers had the 10th pick in the draft (immediately after the Jazz) and selected Paul George, the player I had hoped the Jazz would take. This was Hayward’s worst game of the summer league. He looked totally outmatched by George, who scored 15 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, and looked every bit the part of a solid NBA prospect.
As I said, I still believe Utah made a mistake drafting Gordon Hayward with the 9th pick. While my impression of Hayward has definitely improved, I’m afraid passing on Paul George will come back to haunt the Jazz.
Gordon, PLEASE prove me wrong.
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NBA Draft Shock And Awe
June 30, 2010 -
I’m writing this after having a couple of days to cool down. Had I written it right after the NBA Draft, it probably wouldn’t have made it through many content filters.
I was on a business trip in Madison, Wisconsin the night of the Draft. We were actually at dinner, and I was checking the ESPN Draft Tracker on my Blackberry. Picks 1-5 went exactly as I expected (Wall, Turner, Favors, Johnson, Cousins). I was both surprised and disappointed to see Golden State take Ekpe Udoh at #6, as I had really hoped the Jazz would land him. Greg Monroe (the other player I really wanted) went next to Detroit at #7, as expected. The Clippers then took Aminu at #8, leaving the Jazz their choice of Ed Davis, Paul George, and Luke Babbitt, with an outside shot they might take Xavier Henry or Cole Aldrich. Or so I thought.
The anticipation was killing me as I hit “refresh” again and again, waiting for Utah’s selection to show up. Finally it did. And then I wished it hadn't. One minute I'm enjoying a delicious steak. The next, I've literally lost my appetite.
Years of waiting for this draft pick, with aspirations it could yield the next Lebron James or Dwight Howard, all flowed rapidly down the drain as the name flashed back at me from my Blackberry screen.
The Jazz didn’t go with the raw but talented power forward from North Carolina. They didn’t go with the athletic wing from Fresno whom some analysts said has as much upside as anyone in the draft. They didn’t even make the “safe” pick by taking the shot-blocking center from Kansas to shore up a long-term need.
Nope. Instead, the Jazz picked Opie.
Honestly, I am still stunned. Gordon Hayward? Really? Of all the players projected to be taken within 5 or 6 spots of where the Jazz picked, he is literally the LAST guy I would have chosen. Sure, he had a great season leading the unheralded Butler Bulldogs to within a missed last-second shot of shocking Duke in the national title game. But still. The kid looks like he’s 12 years old. I’m not sure his skills will translate to the NBA. He really doesn’t fit a need for the Jazz. Did I mention that I am still stunned?
I’ve been wrong before, and I hope I’m wrong now, but I think the Jazz blew this draft. Hopefully Hayward will change my mind in Summer League.
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