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Five Mistakes the Jazz Could Make This Summer
June 1, 2009 -
I’ve been speculating heavily in recent weeks about what moves the Jazz will make this summer. Unfortunately, there are too many factors beyond the team’s control at this point for them to do much more than theoretical planning. The decisions the front office makes this summer (and potentially up to next season’s trade deadline) will have a profound impact on the future success of this team. The Jazz have enough talent and resources to transform themselves into immediate title contenders with a few key moves. Conversely, they could also condemn themselves to years of mediocrity with a few key blunders.
With that in mind, I have identified five major mistakes the Jazz must not make this summer:
Mistake #1: Overpay for Boozer – The Jazz should be all too familiar with the perils of bad contracts. Perennial underachiever, Greg Ostertag, was overpaid for years, and his contract prevented the Jazz from acquiring additional talent that could have helped bring a title to Utah. Andrei Kirilenko is the most recent example of an overpaid underachiever. His max deal has two years left and represents a huge burden to the team’s current financial flexibility.
On one hand, Carlos Boozer is a two-time NBA all-star and Olympic gold medalist. He is one of only a handful of players capable of averaging 20 points and 10 boards over the course of a season. On the other hand, Boozer missed one third of his possible games over the past four years, with three separate “major” injuries. He also disappeared for critical stretches, including the 2008 Playoffs. His defense is dismal, and his character, leadership, and desire have all come under legitimate question.
Paul Millsap is not as talented a scorer, but he’s a comparable rebounder and much better defender than Boozer. He is also younger, more durable, and will come significantly cheaper. Millsap is a Jerry Sloan-type player who brings it every night. You can’t ask for a much better contingency plan should Boozer leave.
Let’s cut to the chase. Considering that the salary cap is shrinking, the Jazz should not offer Boozer that raise he so brashly predicted. If he can find a team willing to give him one, more power to him. Utah should then explore sign-and-trade opportunities with that team, assuming they have assets the Jazz would want in return.
If that doesn’t work, just let him walk.
Yes, I just suggested letting an all-star walk out the door. While it would hurt to lose Boozer for nothing, the alternative of being saddled by a terrible contract attached to a player who will never deliver a title would be even more painful.
Mistake #2: Keep Boozer and Okur together – The sample size is now officially large enough to draw a solid conclusion: Booz and Memo are the weakest defensive frontcourt tandem in the league. Champions play tough D, and these two either can’t or won’t. It’s a shame, because they actually complement each other nicely on offense.
Bottom line: if one stays, the other must go. Personally I would prefer to keep Okur for a number of reasons (this argument could command a separate article), but I could live with either scenario so long as one of them is replaced by a defensive stalwart. I can’t stomach another season of opposing teams taking it to the hole without fear or retribution.
Mistake #3: Trade the 2010 Knicks’ pick without getting an all-star in return – Thanks to the brilliant business mind of Isiah Thomas, the Jazz own New York’s 2010 first-round draft pick, completely unprotected. This pick could range anywhere from the mid-teens all the way up to number one. Based on the Knicks’ performance last season, it will most likely be in the 6-10 range. The 2010 draft is supposed to be one of the strongest in recent years, making this pick an even more coveted prize.
The Jazz can approach this asset a couple of different ways. They can hold on to it, hope the Knicks have another poor season, and pray for lottery luck. Or they could trade the pick to improve the team right away with a known commodity. They could also use it to entice another team to take bad contracts (i.e. Kirilenko), and this is what scares me.
This pick is far too valuable to be used for anything less than significantly improving the team. Sure, it could end up being a bust, but it could also land a franchise player. The Jazz should entertain trade offers for the pick during the upcoming year, but only if they receive all-star talent in return. Simply using it to dump salary would be inexcusable.
Mistake #4: Take a passive approach – The Jazz are traditionally a conservative organization, not exactly known for shaking things up. (How often have you heard the terms “Utah Jazz” and “blockbuster trade” in the same sentence?) In recent years, the Jazz have employed a stay-the-course strategy, making minor adjustments in hopes that this young team would evolve into a title contender. Injuries aside, I think the past season proved that strategy to be flawed. This team has too many serious weaknesses (defense, 3-pt shooting, athleticism, toughness, wing scoring, etc.) to address them with a little tweaking.
Fortunately the Jazz have a number of valuable resources at their disposal to orchestrate trades including all-star talent (Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko), expiring contracts (Harpring, Brewer), young players with upside (Millsap, Brewer, Miles, Koufos, Fessenko), and the aforementioned NY draft pick. Kevin O’Connor needs to use these resources aggressively to address key weaknesses. The Jazz need to make at least one, if not two major deals this summer.
Deron Williams is the team’s franchise player. He is untouchable (unless of course the Cavs are shopping LeBron). Everyone else is fair game. The goal should be to surround Williams with the best possible cast, even if that means shipping away two or three of the current core. Swapping Brevin Knight for Kenyon Dooling won’t cut it.
Mistake #5: Focus on cutting costs – In the current economic recession, many teams around the league are hurting financially. With owners and GMs looking to cut costs, good talent will be available at deep discounts. Mark my words: the teams that are aggressive during this period will be the big winners over the next decade. Of course the Jazz need to be prudent with their finances, but if they get too conservative and prioritize cost cutting above talent acquisition, they will miss a golden opportunity to improve the team. Sure, that’s easy for me to say when I don’t have to pay the bills, but a winning team equates to winning ticket and merchandise sales. The same principle holds true for a mediocre team.
A little short-term financial pain over the next year or two could equate to serious long-term gain and potentially reward the franchise with that first elusive title.
At the end of the summer, I'll revisit this topic and grade the performance.
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Salary Cap Concerns
January 21, 2009 -
Reading the recent WSJ interview with Greg Miller got me thinking about the tough decisions the Jazz will face with free agency this summer. Greg reiterated the statement that the Jazz will not go over the luxury tax threshold. If we take him at his word, that means there is no realistic way to keep Williams, Boozer, Memo, and AK. At least one of those players will have to go before the trade deadline next year.
The salary cap and luxury tax threshold for the 2008-09 season are $58.7M and $71.2M respectively. For the sake of argument, let’s assume those numbers remain the same next year (normally they increase annually as league revenues continue to grow, but the down economy will likely have an impact, and they could actually drop).
If no one opts out, the core of Williams, AK, Booz, and Memo will make a combined $51.9M, leaving just under $20M to round out the roster. Other guaranteed contracts (Brewer, CJ, Fess, Harp, Korver, and Koufos) total $20.3M, already putting the Jazz over the luxury tax limit and still needing to sign 3 additional players just to meet the roster minimum of 13.
I haven’t even mentioned Millsap yet. He is playing for $797K this season and will likely get offers from other teams in the $6-10M range, despite the fact that he is an RFA. Even if no team wants to use their cap space this summer (something I don’t expect to happen), at bare minimum he will get full mid-level offers (currently $5.6M). The Jazz would be stupid to let him go for nothing, and I can’t imagine they would.
The way I see it, the Jazz have two primary options to avoid the luxury tax while keeping the majority of the core intact for a championship run. One is to trade Boozer, and the other is to trade AK. We’ll come back to that in a minute.
In addition to moving AK or Booz, the Jazz must do a few more things to stay under the tax threshold:
Dump Harpring’s $6M salary – Although I hate to lose his toughness and leadership, Harp’s salary is far too high for his level of contribution. The ideal situation would be to trade him for a 2nd-round pick to a team that needed him. Worst case would be to include a draft pick to convince another team to take him.
Sign Millsap for less than $8M – Since he is an RFA and not many teams are projected to have cap space this summer, the Jazz should be able to re-sign Sap for less than he might otherwise command. While I’m sure they will match any reasonable offer he receives, the Jazz need to keep his first year in the $7M+ range to avoid luxury tax problems.
Sign Knight and/or Price for less than $3M combined – Both players will be unrestricted FAs this summer. If the Jazz want to bring both of them back, they need to keep the combined deals under $3M. Otherwise, they need to choose one and then plan to sign a 3rd PG for the minimum.Now back to the tough decisions. As I mentioned in my opening paragraph, the Jazz simply can’t afford to keep DWill, Memo, Booz, and AK at their current salaries. Williams is the franchise player, so he is untouchable. End of discussion. Memo (unless he demands a serious raise this summer) is a great value, and I wouldn’t let him go either. With his size, shooting ability, and clutch play, he can do too many things that Jazz would really struggle to replace if he were gone. Memo’s limitation is on defense, which leads us to Boozer…
While a great complementary combo on offense, Boozer and Memo are just too weak defensively as a PF/C tandem for the Jazz to win the title. Neither is a shot blocker or good help defender, and this leaves the middle too wide open. Championship teams play tough defense, and I just don’t see that happening with the existing frontcourt.
Boozer can score and rebound with he best in the league. Guys who can put up 20 points and grab 10 boards on a consistent basis are extremely tough to come by. Fortunately for the Jazz, they happen to have another one already on the roster who, by the way, also plays great defense, blocks shots, hustles on every play, has proven quite durable, is younger, and will probably be $5-10M per year less expensive.
If we look at the 22 games that Millsap has started in Boozer’s absence and remove the 2 where he played limited minutes due to injury (Detroit and Dallas), his averages over the remaining 20 games are as follows:
Millsap – 19.5 pts, 12.3 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 blks, 1.6 stls, 55.6% FG, 71.6% FT, 37.1 mins
Compare those with Boozer’s averages for the 12 games he played prior to his injury (a relatively small sample size, but they are close enough to his complete 2007-08 stats to make for a valid comparison):
Boozer – 20.5 pts, 11.7 rbs, 2.7 asts, 0.3 blks, 0.9 stls, 55.9% FG, 72.7% FT, 33.8 mins
Millsap is in a virtual statistical dead heat with Boozer in every category except blocks and steals, where he is far superior. Looking at these numbers and considering Millsap is only in his third season makes the potential loss of Boozer much more palatable.
If the Jazz believe that Boozer – defensive deficiencies be damned – must be retained at all costs, the other alternative is to trade Kirilenko. AK is a unique talent who can change a game by himself, but he’s far too inconsistent for his monster salary. Unfortunately, this makes him more difficult to move considering his deal goes through 2011.
Deciding who to trade may well come down to how much the Jazz can get in return. So what should they try to get back in exchange for one of their top players? This is the easy part. The Jazz desperately need consistent scoring and perimeter defense from the wing positions. Brewer, CJ, Korver, and Kirilenko, can all look brilliant at times, but none of them command a double team or require a defense to focus on stopping them. Inserting an all-star-caliber shooting guard or small forward into this team makes them immediate contenders. On my next entry, I’ll outline some trades I would seriously pursue.
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