Showing posts with label Season Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season Preview. Show all posts
-
Utah Jazz Season Preview 2010-11
October 25, 2010 -
With the Jazz set to begin playing games that actually count on Wednesday, it’s time for my annual season preview. Heading into last year, I wasn’t feeling much optimism. I expected more of the same: a good-but-not-great regular season followed by an early playoff exit. I officially predicted Utah would win 54 games, earn a 4th seed in the West, and lose easily to the Lakers in the 2nd round. The Jazz simply didn’t have a championship-caliber roster. That fact had been evident to me for quite some time.
My forecast was eerily accurate. Utah won 53 games, landed the 5th seed in the Western Conference (actually tied for 4th), and was unceremoniously swept by LA in the conference semis. Despite the fact they finished only 2 regular-season wins short of the 2nd seed in the uber-competitive West and managed to upset the heavily favored Nuggets (my second most-hated team behind the loathsome Lakers) in the opening round of the playoffs, the Jazz never really looked like a title contender.
Heading into the 2010-11 season, my mood is completely transformed. Considering how many key players the Jazz lost this summer, optimism is somewhat of an unexpected emotion. Three months ago I was ready to give up on Utah’s front office, calling them complacent and content with mediocrity. Now I’m signing their praises.
Let’s start with a statistical recap of last season, followed by my 2010-11 projections:
2009-10 Record: 53-29 (1st-tie in Northwest Division; 4th-tie in Western Conference; Lost in 2nd round of playoffs)
2009-10 Statistical Leaders:
Points: Carlos Boozer (19.5)
Rebounds: Carlos Boozer (11.2)
Assists: Deron Williams (10.5)
Steals: Andrei Kirilenko (1.43)
Blocks: Andrei Kirilenko (1.22)
FG%: Carlos Boozer (56.2%)
3Pt%: Kyle Korver (53.6%)
FT%: Wesley Matthews (82.9%)
Key Additions: Al Jefferson (trade), Raja Bell (free agent), Earl Watson (free agent), Francisco Elson (free agent), Gordon Hayward (1st-round pick), Jeremy Evans (2nd-round pick)
Key Subtractions: Carlos Boozer (free agency), Wesley Matthews (free agency), Kyle Korver (free agency), Kosta Koufos (trade), Ronnie Brewer (trade), Eric Maynor (trade)
Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup:
Deron Williams (PG), Raja Bell (SG), Andrei Kirilenko (SF), Paul Millsap (PF), Al Jefferson (C)
2010-11 Roster/Depth Chart
PG – Deron Williams, Earl Watson, Ronnie Price
SG – Raja Bell, CJ Miles
SF – Andrei Kirilenko, Gordon Hayward, Jeremy Evans
PF – Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur
C – Al Jefferson, Kyrylo Fesenko, Francisco Elson
Team Strengths
Point Guard – D-Will is the best in the business, and he keeps getting better. The addition of Earl Watson brings an experienced vet to man the ship while Deron gets a breather, which should take off some pressure. Utah will outclass virtually every team at this position.
Interior Scoring – The Jazz always have one of the highest FG% in the league, as their offense is designed to create layups and easy shots. Jefferson, Millsap, and Kirilenko will be a tough frontline for opposing defenses to contain.
Coaching – Despite the fact he’s regularly snubbed for COY, Sloan is a deserving hall-of-famer who demands (and usually receives) the best from his players. This year he actually has the right pieces to work with.
Home Court – There isn’t a more difficult place to play (according to NBA GMs) than Energy Solutions Arena.
Roster Flexibility – Almost every player on the Jazz roster can play multiple positions, giving Sloan the flexibility to create mismatches and exploit opponent weaknesses. The Jazz have at least five realistic options at every position:
PG – Williams, Watson, Price, Hayward, Kirilenko, Miles
SG – Bell, Miles, Price, Williams, Watson, Hayward, Kirilenko
SF – Kirilenko, Miles, Hayward, Bell, Evans
PF – Millsap, Kirilenko, Jefferson, Okur, Evans, Elson
C – Jefferson, Fesenko, Okur, Elson, Millsap
Concerns
Wing scoring – Will anyone step up and provide consistent scoring from the wing? It’s been five years since a Jazz wing averaged over 14 points per game, and that was Kirilenko (who is more of a tandem forward). It’s been over 10 years since a Jazz shooting guard did it, and that was Jeff Hornacek. Utah desperately needs consistent scoring from the wing, whether from a single player or by committee.
Interior defense – While the loss of Boozer (who played defense like a 6-year-old girl) should be addition by subtraction in this area, Jefferson isn’t exactly known as a defensive stopper. He is bigger than Boozer, however, and will block and alter more shots. This was a major weakness last year but did appear improved during the preseason. Still, it’s an area of concern until proven otherwise.
Outside shooting – Particularly with Okur out to start the season, this may be a deficiency. Korver is gone (you can’t help but miss a guy who shoots over 50% from behind the arc), and so is Matthews (38% from 3). Bell and CJ will need to light it up to prevent this from becoming a glaring weakness.
Wildcards
CJ Miles – The Jazz lost three key wings from last season: Matthews, Korver, and Brewer. CJ isn’t the athlete Brewer was, the defender Matthews was, or the shooter Korver was. BUT, he is capable of doing all three of those things in combination better than any of the aforementioned players. Miles appears slotted for a 6th-man role this season, and Utah will need his scoring punch off the bench. If he has the breakout year Jazz fans have been waiting for…
Andrei Kirilenko – Can he stay healthy, physically and mentally? It’s tough to place a value on AK when he plays with confidence and consistency. He’s a game changer. At his best, Kirilenko paired with Williams and Jefferson gives the Jazz a “Big 3” on par with anyone but the Superfriends in Miami (and Utah has a much better supporting cast).
Mehmet Okur – When and how well will he come back from that Achilles injury? If truly healthy, Memo could be an outstanding weapon off the bench at either the 4 or 5 spot.
Player Projections
This is the part where I gaze into my crystal ball (which happens to be a fish bowl that really needs cleaning) and predict individual performances for the season:
Deron Williams established himself as the top PG in the league last season, and he’ll keep that title this year. While his Team-USA buddies whine for trades and collude to join forces in big markets, Deron will quietly deliver an MVP-caliber performance.
Al Jefferson received a guarantee when he came to Utah that Deron Williams would make him an all-star. That promise will be fulfilled in February when Big Al is named an all-star reserve by the coaches. Jefferson will take a few months to achieve peak performance, but he’ll be a regular 20/10 machine by 2011.
Paul Millsap won’t improve much statistically from last season, but he will continue his progression as a player. Sap will be the perfect complement to Jefferson, bringing consistent hustle, energy, and toughness to the front line.
Andrei Kirilenko will have his best season since 2005-06. Though he won’t match his statistical totals from that year, he will have an invaluable impact on games and be a major catalyst to Utah’s success. Despite the potential trade value of his expiring contract, AK will finish the season a Jazzman.
Raja Bell will benefit the team with intangibles as much as he does with his defense and outside shooting. Similar to AK, his stats won’t convey the full value of his presence. Raja’s attitude will help revive the culture of toughness from Jazz teams of the past that seemed to have disappeared in recent seasons.
Mehmet Okur will struggle a little bit and probably have his worst statistical year in a Jazz uniform. Part of this will be due to his injury, and part will be due to a lack of minutes created by the play of Jefferson, Millsap, Kirilenko, and even Fesenko. Still, he will be a valuable contributor off the bench and will win a few games for the Jazz with his clutch shooting.
CJ Miles will finally almost become the player Jazz fans have been hoping he would become since he was drafted straight out of high school five years ago. Though nothing to generate all-star chatter, CJ will have something that could qualify as a breakout year. He won’t, however, deliver quite the needed consistency to make the Jazz true title contenders.
Gordon Hayward will look like a ROY candidate one game and a D-Leaguer the next. Still, Gordon will make a meaningful contribution throughout the season and validate Utah’s decision to make him the 9th pick in the draft (can’t believe I actually said that).
Earl Watson will start slow but finish strong. He will have some fans clamoring for Price early on, but by the all-star break Watson will be the best back-up PG in Utah since Howard Eisley (on his first tour of duty) played behind Stockton.
Kyrylo Fesenko will continue to drive Sloan nuts and remind Jazz fans of a more-athletic Ostertag by looking brilliant one night and failing to show up the next. Even so, Fess will have by far his beast season to date and will be a key cog in the second unit.
Francisco Elson will make KOC look smart. He will more than earn his vet-minimum salary by providing defense, rebounding, and toughness in limited minutes. In fact, he’ll become a fan favorite by getting under the skin of opposing players—something he managed to do twice in the preseason despite only playing in two games.
Ronnie Price will make Sloan wish he had more minutes to dole out. His playing time will be hampered by the presence of Watson, but Price will still find a way to contribute, bringing energy and hustle.
Jeremy Evans will once again make KOC and the Jazz scouting department appear brilliant. This 2nd-round gem will spend time in Orem but will actually work his way into some minutes as the season progresses. Portland is probably already preparing a toxic contract offer for him when he becomes a restricted free agent.
Putting It All Together
Three months ago I never would have imagined saying this, but this Jazz team could actually contend for a title. I didn’t like the roster composition of last year’s team. They were too small, too soft, and didn’t have the right chemistry. Hate to single anyone out, but Utah simply was not going to win on the delicate back of Carlos Boozer.
Following a masterfully orchestrated offseason by Kevin O’Connor, Utah now has the pieces in place to be a legitimate title contender. BUT (and this is a Charles Barkley-sized but), it will take everyone staying healthy and playing up their potential to make it happen. Realistically, I think the Jazz are still a couple of years away.
Based on where the “experts” are predicting them to finish, however, they'll be a lot closer than most people think this season.
Projected 2010-11 Record: 55-27
(1st in Northwest division, 2nd in Western Conference, lose to Lakers in Western Conference Finals)
more
-
Utah Jazz Season Preview 2009-10
October 27, 2009 -
With the Jazz set to open their season tomorrow night in Denver, it's time to publish my official 2009-10 preview. I haven't been this unsure about how the Jazz would perform since 2003-04, the year after Stockton retired and Malone left to chase that elusive title with the hated Lakers.
The range of possibilities is wide this season, but I'll gaze into the crystal ball as best I can. Here are my projections for the team, as well as individual players:
2008-09 Record: 48-34 (3rd in Northwest Division; 8th in Western Conference; Lost in 1st round of playoffs)
2008-09 Statistical Leaders:
Points: Deron Williams (19.4)
Rebounds: Carlos Boozer (10.4)
Assists: Deron Williams (10.7)
Steals: Ronnie Brewer (1.7)
Blocks: Andrei Kirilenko (1.1)
FG%: Paul Millsap (53.4%)
3Pt%: Mehmet Okur (44.6%)
FT%: Kyle Korver (88.2%)
Key Additions: Eric Maynor, Wes Matthews
Key Subtractions: Brevin Knight, Jarron Collins
(Obviously I use the word “key” rather loosely.)
Roster/Depth Chart
PG – Deron Williams, Ronnie Price, Eric Maynor
SG – Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Wes Matthews
SF – CJ Miles, Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring
PF – Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap
C – Mehmet Okur, Kosta Koufos, Kyrylo Fesenko
Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup:
Deron Williams (PG), Ronnie Brewer (SG), Andrei Kirilenko (SF), Carlos Boozer (PF), Mehmet Okur (C)
Strengths
Point guard play – Deron is a budding superstar and one of the top-2 players in the league at his position. He has improved each season, and this one should be no exception. With Deron’s leadership and clear competitive drive, the Jazz have an ideal floor general.
Depth – Utah has one of the deepest rosters in the league, with a second unit capable of holding its own against many starting squads. This can prove highly valuable over an 82-game season.
Balance – At least 8 players on this theam are capable of dropping 20 points on any given night. At least 4 are capable of dropping 30. The Jazz are not dependent on a single superstar for the bulk of their scoring, which makes them more difficult to defend.
Flexibility – With such a deep, versatile lineup, Sloan has the option to exploit matchups without sacrificing talent. Most everyone on the team can play two and in some cases three different positions.
Weaknesses
Outside shooting – Utah was one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams last season. Four of the top six players based on minutes played per game (Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko, and Brewer) are not consistent deep threats. Okur was the only player on the team to shoot over 40% from behind the arc. When your center is your best shooter, you have to worry a little bit.
Wing play – The Jazz lack a consistent scoring threat from the wing positions to take pressure off Williams and the post players. Brewer, Kirilenko, Korver, and Miles can all score effectively in spurts, but none can be counted on to consistently provide 15+ points per game or to create their own shots.
Interior defense – With Boozer and Okur together in the starting lineup, Utah lacks a shot-blocking presence in the frontcourt. This has been painfully apparent over the past couple of seasons, as opposing teams regularly take it to the hole without fear.
Toughness – Not an attribute you would expect to be missing on a Jerry Sloan-coached team, but the Jazz failed to show much toughness last season. This was evidenced by their dismal record on the road and in the second game of back to backs. Losing Harpring to injury (and possibly retirement) will not help in that category.
Wildcards
Health – The Jazz missed 149 man games to injury or illness last season. Not a single person on the roster played in all 82 games, and all of the top guys except Brewer missed significant action: Boozer (45 games), Kirilenko (15), Williams (14), Okur (10), Millsap (6). Simply keeping the team healthy should result in a higher win total than last season, but they are already off to a bad start. CJ Miles and Kyle Korver were both injured in the preseason, requiring surgery that will keep them out until at least December. Okur, Brewer, and Price also missed preseason games due to injury.
Centers – Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko are both young, intriguing big men with the physical tools necessary to become a serious presence in the post. Will either begin to realize that potential this season? If one of both can step up and become that enforcer the Jazz have been missing, it could make a huge difference.
Boozer – No one (himself included) expected Carlos Boozer to be in a Jazz uniform on opening day. But here he is. Boozer is in a contract year and will have every incentive to play his heart out this season. The question is, what kind of a team player will he be?
Worst-Case Scenario – On paper, this is essentially the same team that made the playoffs last season by the skin of its teeth, and then barely put up a fight against the Lakers in the first round. Particularly with some of the improvements to other Western Conference teams, it’s not that difficult to imagine the Jazz landing in the lottery.
Best-Case Scenario – This team actually has the talent to win the West and contend for a title. When healthy and playing on the same page, the Jazz can compete with anyone in the league. Unfortunately neither of those two things happened much last season. If all the pieces fall into place, Utah will give the Lakers and Spurs a run for their money. At very least, they will be a team no one wants to meet in the playoffs.
Predictions – The Jazz will improve over last season’s disappointing finish. They will continue to have one of the most efficient offenses in the league but will also continue to struggle stopping good teams down the stretch of close games. That said, the interior defense will be better than last season due in part to Boozer’s newly found (and contract-motivated) commitment.
Deron Williams will have a monster year and earn his first all-star invitation, increasing his scoring and assists totals, and improving his shooting percentage. The DWill vs. CP3 debate will rage on, as Deron closes the statistical gap and leads his team to a better record.
Ronnie Brewer will earn a contract extension with his improved defense and limited-but-efficient offensive game. He will play heavy minutes in the first part of the season while Miles and Korver rehab their injuries. His lack of shooting will hurt the Jazz in the short term (particularly when he’s on the court with Kirilenko), as teams will pack the paint to stop Boozer and Millsap.
Eric Maynor greatly exceeded expectations in the preseason and will see solid minutes backing up Williams, particularly with Price likely logging some time at SG. Maynor’s lack of strength will be a liability against bigger guards, but he has shown he can play at this level.
Mehmet Okur will increase his 3-point attempts to compensate for the lack of other outside shooters. He will miss a handful of games throughout the season with back problems but will prove an integral part of the team's success.
Paul Millsap will make the Jazz look smart for matching his contract offer this summer. His stats will be limited by Boozer’s continued presence (though Sloan will likely find him some minutes at SF) but his contribution will go beyond the box score.
Carlos Boozer will be the consummate professional and will post career numbers. He hurt his brand so badly over the summer that he will be in damage-control mode all year. The crystal ball is a little murky, but I think I see a different colored uniform in February...
CJ Miles was poised for a breakout year before tearing a tendon in his shooting hand. He likely won’t be back in the lineup until sometime in December, and it may be the all-star break by the time he is back to form. He will have some outstanding games but won’t achieve the consistency we’ve all been craving from him.
Kyle Korver finally got his wrist healthy before injuring his knee. Like CJ, he will miss the first part of the season and may not be back until January. When he does come back, however, he will likely return to form relatively quickly. His shooting off the bench will be key down the stretch.
Kosta Koufos didn’t show the improvement I had hoped to see from him during the preseason. He will likely spend some time in Orem but will still see some minutes with the Jazz. Kouf is a bright guy and a hard worker, so I expect him to earn more time as the season progresses. 2010-11 will be his breakout year.
Kyrylo Fesenko seems to be getting better, just not as quickly as I would like. Since he’s not eligible for Flash duty anymore, he will see his share of DNP-CDs unless the opposing team has a big, legitimate center. Unfortunately the light won't come on quickly enough for him, and this will be his last season with the team.
Andrei Kirilenko bulked up significantly during the offseason. This should make him more durable over the course of the season but won’t bring back the all-star who disappeared a few ago. AK will have the occasional brilliant game (i.e. 18 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 3 steals) but won’t do it consistently.
Ronnie Price will take full advantage of his additional minutes, providing energy and hustle off the bench. Sloan admitted his error in not playing Price enough last year and won’t duplicate the mistake. While Maynor may actually beat him out for backup PG by the end of the season, Ronnie will remain in the rotation.
Jerry Sloan will once again be snubbed for coach of the year despite overcoming the offseason Boozer drama to exceed expectations in leading his team to one of the top records in the conference.
Projected 2009-10 Record: 54-28
(2nd in Northwest Division, 4th in Western Conference, lose to Lakers in Western Conference Semifinals)
The Jazz are likely still a few pieces away from being a true title contender. This season will be a step in the right direction, but they won't quite get there.
more
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
