-
Blueprint for KOC
April 20, 2009 -
I realize the playoffs just started, but this season is as good as over. Had the Jazz managed to move up to the 6th or 7th seed, I would have held out hope they could pull together and possibly win a series or two… But not against the Lakers. The Jazz are in complete disarray at the moment and are now facing the best team in the West, against whom they match up poorly under the best of circumstances. They will be lucky to win a single game.
With that rosy picture as our backdrop, time to focus on what must happen for the future. To break up the negativity, I’ll actually start with the positives of the current team:
PG play – Deron is arguably the best in the league at his position and should be for years to come.
Depth – Top to bottom, I can't think of a team with a more talented roster.
Youth – The entire squad is under 30 with the exception of Harpring, Knight, and Collins
Passing – The Jazz led the league in assists, and not just because of Deron
Now for the “areas of opportunity.” Here’s where the Jazz need some serious improvement:
Defense – Hard to imagine a Jerry Sloan team giving up 110 points on average over the last 12 games of the season, but it happened. The perimeter defense is weak, but the interior is disgraceful.
Toughness – This team is just too soft. Harpring, Millsap, Collins, and Williams are tough. Anyone else?
Wing scoring – The Jazz lack a wing player who can put up points in bunches and really forces a defense to focus on stopping him.
Rebounding – After leading the league in 2006-07, the team’s rebounding has regressed considerably over the past two seasons.
Cap relief – Without making some moves, the Jazz will be well over the luxury tax next season.
I’m going to break up the current roster into three categories, and then make my specific recommendations for KOC’s course of action:
Keep:
Deron Williams – He is the franchise player and only untouchable on the team (unless Lebron James or Dwight Howard is available…)
Paul Millsap – Showed great potential with his amazing double-double streak. He works hard, plays defense, still has upside, and will be much more affordable than Boozer
Kyle Korver – Much-needed sharpshooter, defense stretcher, and chick magnet.
Mehmet Okur – His post play is improved, and so is his 3-point shooting. He’s a tough mismatch for opposing teams, and the Jazz would struggle to replace what he brings.
Kosta Koufos – D-League numbers don’t mean much, but he could become the complete package at center with his size, athleticism, and work ethic.
Dump:
Carlos Boozer – His welcome is officially worn out. Too soft, too injury prone, and too invisible on defense.
Andrei Kirilenko – I love him, but he just can’t seem to keep it together as a role player and is nowhere near worth his contract.
CJ Miles – Experiment failed.
Jarron Collins – Expiring contract that should not be re-signed (unless the team has an open roster spot and he’ll take the league minimum).
Morris Almond – Jazz already made this decision when they declined his option.
Indifferent:
Ronnie Brewer – Young, athletic, and consistently improving. But isn't your shooting guard supposed to be able to shoot?
Matt Harpring – Jazz could use his toughness, but he’s over the hill and overpaid.
Ronnie Price – Great energy guy who is nice to have at the end of the bench.
Kyrylo Fessenko – Big potential that likely won’t be realized, but he’s a cheap 7-footer.
Brevin Knight – Not a terrible option if the Jazz can’t find anyone better, but he'll have to take a pay cut.
Here are my attempts at realistic proposals for moves the Jazz should make during the off season. I made some similar suggestions in a post a few months back, but these have been refreshed:
Move #1: Re-sign Millsap, Price, and Fess
Sign Millsap for $28M over 4 years – He's worth this money and won’t likely get a better offer in the current economy.
Sign Price for $2.4M over 2 years – Reasonable contract for a 3rd PG who knows the system and plays hard.
Pick up Fess’ option for $870K – Cheap contract for a young big with upside.
Move #2: Trade Boozer and Brewer to Charlotte for Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell
Why Charlotte does this: They were reportedly shopping Wallace at the trade deadline, so this should not be a stretch. Bobcats need a post scoring threat, and Boozer would actually be a great frontcourt complement to Diaw and Okafor, who can make up for his defensive deficiencies. If it doesn’t work out, they get cap space for 2010. Brewer is younger, cheaper, and has more upside than Bell.
Why Utah does this: Boozer needs to go. He is a defensive liability and cannot coexist with Okur. Millsap is at the very least a solid PF replacement at a much lower cost. Wallace gives the Jazz a desperately needed wing scoring threat while also providing rebounding and excellent perimeter defense. I don’t want to give up Brewer, but Wallace replaces his athleticism. Bell plays tough defense, can hit the three, and brings a little nastiness. He’s a better fit along side Wallace.
Move #3 (realistic): Trade AK, CJ, and Hapring to Oklahoma City for Earl Watson, Nick Collison, and Damien Wilkins (this trade would have to occur after Jul 27 due to CJ signing OKC’s offer sheet last summer)
Why OKC does this: They have cap space -- the key component here since salaries don't match -- but may have trouble attracting a top-tier free agent. This trade gives them two starter-caliber players (one of which they obviously wanted last summer) and a tough vet in exchange for three backups. AK could thrive in this system playing along side younger players. Additionally, the Thunder should still have enough cap space to go after a free agent in 2010 since Harpring’s contract is expring.
Why Utah does this: Despite the occasional great game, AK has sufficiently proven he will never match the level of play that earned him a max contract. He just doesn’t seem to be able to find his groove with this team. While clearly lopsided from a talent perspective, this trade gives the Jazz cap relief and provides solid backups at PG and PF in Watson and Collison, who are both tough defenders. It won't be easy to find a team willing to take AK's contract, so this may be the best they can do.
Those moves would leave the Jazz with the following roster (along with my guesstimate at the distribution of minutes):
PG – Williams (36), Watson (12)
SG – Bell (32), Korver (16)
SF – Wallace (36), Korver (12)
PF – Millsap (32), Collison (16)
C – Memo (32), Koufos (16)
Garbage/injury time: Fess, Price, Wilkins, Draft Pick(s)
2009/10 Total Salary: $71.4 MM
You never know how well a team will mesh together until you see them on the court, but I like this lineup on paper. I really believe Charlotte would do the Boozer/Wallace trade, and I think it’s a win for both teams. The big question is could the Jazz get more for AK, CJ and Harp than the proposed OKC deal? Here are a few slightly more “optimistic” scenarios:
Move #3a (optimistic): Jazz trade AK to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas
Move #3b - Trade CJ and Harpring to OKC (or any team with cap space) for a 2nd round pick
Why Chicago does this: They have a logjam in the backcourt with Hinrich, Rose, and Gordon. Hinrich still has 3 years on his contract, and $9M is a lot to pay a guard who is only getting 26 minutes a game. AK could start at PF and give them a veteran presence with a much more comlete game than Thomas. His contract is a year shorter than Hinrich’s.
Why Utah does this: Again, it’s about getting the most value in return for AK. Hinrich would give the Jazz their best backup PG since Stockton played behind Ricky Green. He could also play SG along side Deron in a small backcourt. He’s a good 3-pt shooter and a great defender. Tyrus Thomas is a bit of a wild card, but he’s the athletic post defender the Jazz have needed for years.
PG – Williams (36), Hinrich (12)
SG – Bell (26), Korver (12), Hinrich (10)
SF – Wallace (36), Korver (12)
PF – Millsap (32), Thomas (16)
C – Memo (32), Koufos (16)
Garbage/injury time: Fess, Price, Draft Pick(s)
2009/10 Total Salary: $70.3 MM
And here's one more (my ideal scenario):
Move #3a (ideal) - Trade AK and the NYC pick to LA Clippers for Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon, and Ricky Davis (filler -- to be waived)
Move #3b - Trade CJ and Harpring to OKC (or any team with cap space) for a 2nd round pick
Why LAC does this: The Clippers are terrible and likely looking to make changes. Kaman has been injured quite a bit, still has 3 years on his contract, and was actually playing behind Camby at the end of the season. They won't want to give up Gordon after a strong rookie year, but the unprotected NYC pick might entice them just enough. AK would give them a good veteren who could start at either SF or PF, or he could be a sixth man behind Thornton and Randolph at both spots.
Why Utah does this: Kaman would give the Jazz a legit traditional center and good frontcourt depth along with Memo, Millsap, and Koufos. Gordon provides the explosive SG the Jazz lack who can score from the perimeter, get to the line, and play tough D. Plus he is young and inexpensive. Giving up the NYC pick is a gamble, but they would be lucky to get a player as good as Gordon in the draft, and he would still be a couple of years away from contributing.
PG – Williams (36), Price (12)
SG – Gordon (30), Bell (18)
SF – Wallace (32), Korver (16)
PF – Millsap (32), Koufos (16)
C – Kaman (24), Memo (24)
Garbage/injury time: Fess, Draft Pick(s)
2009/10 Total Salary: $70.9 MM
This accomplishes everything the Jazz need:
Improved toughness – Losing Boozer, CJ, and AK is addition by subtraction in this category. Wallace, Bell, and Kaman all seem sufficiently tough.
Better rebounding – A front line of Wallace, Millsap, and Kaman would be outstanding on the boards.
Interior defense – Kaman, Koufos, Millsap and Wallace are all shot blockers.
Perimeter defense – Wallace, Gordon, and Bell are all strong defenders and an upgrade to the CJ - Brewer - Kirilenko trio.
Wing scoring threat – Gordon and Wallace are much better scorers than CJ and AK.
Avoid luxury tax – This lineup actually comes in below the tax threshold, and that even includes the signing of two draft picks.
If KOC can pull this off, he will be GM of the year and -- more importantly -- my hero. This lineup would be championship ready. In fact, if KOC could pull off any of the three scenarios I outlined above, I think the Jazz could be serious contenders next season (and I would expect an honorary position in the organization).
more
-
Salary Cap Concerns
January 21, 2009 -
Reading the recent WSJ interview with Greg Miller got me thinking about the tough decisions the Jazz will face with free agency this summer. Greg reiterated the statement that the Jazz will not go over the luxury tax threshold. If we take him at his word, that means there is no realistic way to keep Williams, Boozer, Memo, and AK. At least one of those players will have to go before the trade deadline next year.
The salary cap and luxury tax threshold for the 2008-09 season are $58.7M and $71.2M respectively. For the sake of argument, let’s assume those numbers remain the same next year (normally they increase annually as league revenues continue to grow, but the down economy will likely have an impact, and they could actually drop).
If no one opts out, the core of Williams, AK, Booz, and Memo will make a combined $51.9M, leaving just under $20M to round out the roster. Other guaranteed contracts (Brewer, CJ, Fess, Harp, Korver, and Koufos) total $20.3M, already putting the Jazz over the luxury tax limit and still needing to sign 3 additional players just to meet the roster minimum of 13.
I haven’t even mentioned Millsap yet. He is playing for $797K this season and will likely get offers from other teams in the $6-10M range, despite the fact that he is an RFA. Even if no team wants to use their cap space this summer (something I don’t expect to happen), at bare minimum he will get full mid-level offers (currently $5.6M). The Jazz would be stupid to let him go for nothing, and I can’t imagine they would.
The way I see it, the Jazz have two primary options to avoid the luxury tax while keeping the majority of the core intact for a championship run. One is to trade Boozer, and the other is to trade AK. We’ll come back to that in a minute.
In addition to moving AK or Booz, the Jazz must do a few more things to stay under the tax threshold:
Dump Harpring’s $6M salary – Although I hate to lose his toughness and leadership, Harp’s salary is far too high for his level of contribution. The ideal situation would be to trade him for a 2nd-round pick to a team that needed him. Worst case would be to include a draft pick to convince another team to take him.
Sign Millsap for less than $8M – Since he is an RFA and not many teams are projected to have cap space this summer, the Jazz should be able to re-sign Sap for less than he might otherwise command. While I’m sure they will match any reasonable offer he receives, the Jazz need to keep his first year in the $7M+ range to avoid luxury tax problems.
Sign Knight and/or Price for less than $3M combined – Both players will be unrestricted FAs this summer. If the Jazz want to bring both of them back, they need to keep the combined deals under $3M. Otherwise, they need to choose one and then plan to sign a 3rd PG for the minimum.Now back to the tough decisions. As I mentioned in my opening paragraph, the Jazz simply can’t afford to keep DWill, Memo, Booz, and AK at their current salaries. Williams is the franchise player, so he is untouchable. End of discussion. Memo (unless he demands a serious raise this summer) is a great value, and I wouldn’t let him go either. With his size, shooting ability, and clutch play, he can do too many things that Jazz would really struggle to replace if he were gone. Memo’s limitation is on defense, which leads us to Boozer…
While a great complementary combo on offense, Boozer and Memo are just too weak defensively as a PF/C tandem for the Jazz to win the title. Neither is a shot blocker or good help defender, and this leaves the middle too wide open. Championship teams play tough defense, and I just don’t see that happening with the existing frontcourt.
Boozer can score and rebound with he best in the league. Guys who can put up 20 points and grab 10 boards on a consistent basis are extremely tough to come by. Fortunately for the Jazz, they happen to have another one already on the roster who, by the way, also plays great defense, blocks shots, hustles on every play, has proven quite durable, is younger, and will probably be $5-10M per year less expensive.
If we look at the 22 games that Millsap has started in Boozer’s absence and remove the 2 where he played limited minutes due to injury (Detroit and Dallas), his averages over the remaining 20 games are as follows:
Millsap – 19.5 pts, 12.3 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 blks, 1.6 stls, 55.6% FG, 71.6% FT, 37.1 mins
Compare those with Boozer’s averages for the 12 games he played prior to his injury (a relatively small sample size, but they are close enough to his complete 2007-08 stats to make for a valid comparison):
Boozer – 20.5 pts, 11.7 rbs, 2.7 asts, 0.3 blks, 0.9 stls, 55.9% FG, 72.7% FT, 33.8 mins
Millsap is in a virtual statistical dead heat with Boozer in every category except blocks and steals, where he is far superior. Looking at these numbers and considering Millsap is only in his third season makes the potential loss of Boozer much more palatable.
If the Jazz believe that Boozer – defensive deficiencies be damned – must be retained at all costs, the other alternative is to trade Kirilenko. AK is a unique talent who can change a game by himself, but he’s far too inconsistent for his monster salary. Unfortunately, this makes him more difficult to move considering his deal goes through 2011.
Deciding who to trade may well come down to how much the Jazz can get in return. So what should they try to get back in exchange for one of their top players? This is the easy part. The Jazz desperately need consistent scoring and perimeter defense from the wing positions. Brewer, CJ, Korver, and Kirilenko, can all look brilliant at times, but none of them command a double team or require a defense to focus on stopping them. Inserting an all-star-caliber shooting guard or small forward into this team makes them immediate contenders. On my next entry, I’ll outline some trades I would seriously pursue.
more
-
About This Site
Welcome to UTJazzBlog.com.
This site is a constructive way for me to channel my fanatical Jazz fanhood without boring my wife to death.
By way of introduction, I'm a former Utah Jazz season ticket holder who now lives in the Phoenix area. While I've grown to like the Suns, I'll always be a Jazz fan at heart. Fortunately with the help of NBA League Pass, a DVR, and a patient wife, I'm still able to catch most games each year.
I have no connections with the Jazz front office, no access to players, and no media credentials. I'm just a passionate fan with a decent knowledge of the game and extremely remedial HTML skills, who would love to have Kevin O'Connor's job someday.
You can generally expect me to post updated content at least once a week, and more frequently during the season. I hope you enjoy my thoughts, analysis, speculation, and occasional feature articles. I welcome your feedback on my posts, and you're welcome to disagree with my opinions -- so long as you are OK with being wrong. :)
Thanks for visiting my site, and please let me know if you have any suggestions. Go Jazz!
-Clint Lowry
One housekeeping rule: If you choose to leave comments, please keep them clean. My family reads this (or at least they pretend to).
more
-
Terms of Use
This blog contains my original thoughts and commentary. On occasion when I quote another article or website, I document the reference and provide a link to the specific website or content. If you want to reference anything I say, please extend me the same courtesy by crediting the source (utjazzblog.com)and providing a link to my site.
I do my best to respect copyright and intellectual property rights, but the Internet can make it challenging to know the true origin and/or status of images. Nearly all photos on this site were downloaded from Photobucket.com. Section 6.1 of their terms of use states the following:
"By displaying or publishing ("posting") any Content on or through the Photobucket Services, you hereby grant to Photobucket and other users a non-exclusive, fully paid and royalty-free, worldwide, limited license to use, modify, delete from, add to, publicly perform, publicly display, reproduce and translate such Content, including without limitation distributing part or all of the Site in any media formats through any media channels, except Content marked "private" will not be distributed outside the Photobucket Services. Photobucket and/or other Users may copy, print or display publicly available Content outside of the Photobucket Services, including without limitation, via the Site or third party websites or applications (for example, services allowing Users to order prints of Content or t-shirts and similar items containing Content)."
Section 6.2 states the following:
"You represent and warrant that: (i) you own the Content posted by you on or through the Photobucket Services or otherwise have the right to grant the license set forth in this section, (ii) the posting and use of your Content on or through the Photobucket Services does not violate the privacy rights, publicity rights, copyrights, contract rights, intellectual property rights or any other rights of any person, and (iii) the posting of your Content on the Site does not result in a breach of contract between you and a third party."
Based on these guidelines, I work under the assumption that all images on my website are legal and royalty free.
more
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
