Utah Jazz Blog (UTJazzBlog.com)

Net Gain - Jazz Trade Williams To Jersey

2011-02-24T20:28:00.000-08:00

February 24, 2011 -
For the second time in two weeks, I’ve had my world rocked while innocently visiting ESPN.com between meetings at work. If not for the current state of unrest in the generally stable Jazz organization, yesterday's announcement would have come as even more of a shock. Still, I was considerably stunned to see the headline, “Nets trade for Jazz PG Williams” pasted across the top of the screen. What?!

Two weeks ago I would have said Deron Williams is untouchable. But a lot changed in two weeks. The Jazz were afraid if they didn’t act preemptively, they would end up like Cleveland and Toronto, whose superstars deserted them to team up in Miami last summer. As a result, the Cavs and Raptors now sit at the bottom of the league standings. That’s what happens when you lose a franchise player and get nothing in return.

The Jazz did what they felt they had to do, and I get that. I just didn’t expect it to happen so suddenly. I've complained in the past that the Jazz front office was too resistant to change. Guess they've proven me wrong.

So let’s break down the trade: The Jazz sent DWill to the Nets for Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, New Jersey’s 2011 1st round pick (unprotected) and Golden State’s 2012 1st round pick, (top-7 protected).

Devin Harris – While no Deron Williams, he is an above-average point guard with great speed and a knack for getting to the hoop. He’s a decent distributor and a great defender. He’s only a year older than Deron (27), and he comes at about half the price.

Derrick Favors – He’s the cornerstone to this trade for the Jazz. Favors was the #3 pick in last year’s draft and has incredible upside. His measurements and athleticism are nearly identical to Dwight Howard, just to put things into perspective. His rookie season performance has been underwhelming thus far, but with his combination of physical gifts, work ethic, and attitude, there’s no reason to believe he won’t improve considerably. He and Jefferson could make a devastating PF/C combo in a couple of years.

New Jersey 2011 1st-round pick – This pick is completely unprotected similar to the Knicks’ pick last year. That means the Jazz could end up with the #1 pick in the draft. More likely, the pick will be in the 6-8 range. I have yet to do any real draft research since I didn’t expect the Jazz to have a pick this year (they traded their own to Minnesota in the Al Jefferson deal), so I have no idea what kind of player they might be able to get. You'll have to stay tuned for that.

Golden State’s 2012 1st round pick – This pick is protected 1-7 in 2012 and 1-6 in 2013. Chances are the Jazz will get to claim it next season if they don’t package it in a future deal. Though I haven't done draft research yet, I have heard the 2012 draft is supposed to be much stronger than 2011, so this could be a valuable pick even if it's in the teens.

So those are the facts. Now for the analysis. My disappointment in this trade is twofold:

1. The Jazz didn’t force the Nets to take Okur’s contract. That would’ve freed up another $10M in cap space for Utah next season. Who knows? Maybe Utah tried and NJ said it was a deal breaker. Still, seems that if you give up your franchise player, you should be able to dump a bad contract as well.

2. The Jazz didn’t get a shooter in return. Anthony Morrow of the Nets is a career 45% 3-pt shooter and would’ve been easy to include from a salary perspective. Devin Harris – while a very good player -- is not a good outside shooter, and the Jazz have now lost their top-4 shooters from last season: Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, Mehmet Okur (to injury), and Deron Williams. That's a problem that needs to be addressed.

My ideal Jersey trade would have been Williams, Okur, Fesenko, and Price for Harris, Favors, Morrow, and Troy Murphy ($10M expiring contract), plus the two 1st round picks. Assuming the Jazz even tried, that may have been a little too much for the Nets.

In summary, Utah gets a very good replacement PG and effectively 3 lottery picks in exchange for Williams. In fact, an ESPN analyst (can't remember which one) today said that Favors would be the #1 pick if he had come out this season. All things considered, that’s not too bad a return for a guy the Jazz could’ve easily lost for nothing at the end of next season.

“I'm stunned that the Jazz made this trade. I'm more stunned that I am not devastated that the Jazz made this trade.”

That quote was posted by a fellow Jazz fan on a message board, but it sums up my feelings perfectly. We really won’t know how good this trade was for a few years when the Jazz have utilized (or traded) the 1sr round picks and Favors has had time to develop. But given what I know about the situation and the risk the Jazz faced with Williams, I think they made the right move.

Snow Flurries In Hell - Farewell To A Legend

2011-02-12T21:24:00.000-08:00

February 12, 2011 –
Clearly I haven’t posted anything for a while. This is due to a combination of factors involving work, travel, family responsibilities, and our DVR crashing. Add to that the fact that the Jazz have been virtually unwatchable lately (even with my NBA League Pass working again), and you get a big gap between articles.

Then Thursday happened. It’s not every day I pull up ESPN.com and get my world rocked. Despite the fact that I was alone at my desk, I felt the urge to look around for the candid cameras, thinking I was being Punked.

This has to be some kind of cruel joke. Jerry Sloan quitting? In the middle of the season, no less? Right up until the actual press conference when he said he was through, I kept expecting something to change his mind.

But obviously it never did. And just like that, the only coach the Jazz have known for the last 23 years walked away from the game, leaving the rest of us wondering what just happened. February 10, 2011 – a date which will live in infamy.

Jerry Sloan epitomized everything I loved about the Jazz: no nonsense, no ego, no fanfare, no self-glorification, no excuses. Just basketball the way it should be played. Five players working together within a system to become greater than the sum of their individual parts – when they actually buy in.

Somehow, somewhere, this recent group of players had gotten away from that. I’m not going to completely throw Deron Williams under the bus because I don’t know what happened behind closed doors. He gets the benefit of the doubt until the evidence proves otherwise. That said, it’s tough to believe he isn’t at least part of the problem. I’ve been a huge fan of his, but the pedestal might be cracking. He seems different this season, and not in a good way. I’ve always detested the notion of superstar players with entitlement attitudes upstaging coaches. If it does turn out that Deron drove Sloan away, that will be tough to forgive.

The optimist in me wants to think the Jazz will somehow be better off now. Sloan was at times stubborn to a fault, and I’ve wondered on numerous occasions if he had failed to adapt well enough to the modern game. Maybe a change is exactly what this team needs. I like Ty Corbin, and I’m excited that Jeff Hornacek will be an assistant as well. I hope Corbin will maintain the same culture of discipline and team play that Sloan employed, but perhaps with a little more flexibility. If he does, this might actually benefit the team in the long run. Perhaps Williams and Sloan simply had an honest personality clash, and Deron will thrive under Corbin. Maybe it really was just Jerry’s time to hang it up.

That’s what the optimist in me wants to think. In reality, I feel like I’ve been punched in the gut. Something just feels wrong about this. What is happening to this team? This organization? Will they continue to be the Jazz that I’ve followed so loyally for nearly 25 years, primarily because they stood in stark contrast to the rest of the NBA and its me-first culture? Larry Miller, Jerry Sloan, John Stockton, and Karl Malone were the Jazz. When the latter two retired, Miller and Sloan soldiered on, and the Jazz remained. When Larry passed away things started to feel a little different; but with Sloan on the bench, it was still the Jazz. You knew he was in charge.

But what now? The team is at a major crossroads, and I feel I’m in a similar position as a fan. It was a strange feeling watching the game last night. Thought I was cheering for the team to the end, in a way I was almost glad to see them lose. It just wouldn’t have felt right to win that first one without Jerry.

Quarter Season Update

2010-12-03T11:38:00.000-08:00

December 3, 2010 -
In my preseason preview post, I made what I felt was a pretty optimistic prediction of 55 wins for the Jazz this season. Somehow, the Jazz have actually managed to exceed that pace with a 15-5 record through the first 20 games of the season. With so many new players on the roster, I actually expected them to struggle somewhat early on. Sometimes it's nice to be wrong.

I won't take the time now to go through a full analysis of the team, but instead I'll identify a few players who are exceeding, meeting, and falling short of my expectations thus far. I won't cover everyone on the roster -- just those who have stood out in one way or another in my mind.

Exceeding Expectations
Deron Williams – After a bit of a slow start, he’s now playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. Dude is amazing.

Paul Millsap – I expected him to take a back seat to Jefferson. Was I ever wrong. His offensive game has really evolved (just ask the Miami Heat), and he just keeps getting better.

Meeting Expectations
CJ Miles – I almost put him in the top category, but he just hasn’t developed that consistency yet. He continues to show flashes of brilliance but still mixes in too many no-show performances. He’s definitely improving, though.

Al Jefferson – Big Al has exceeded my expectations in some areas (defense) and fallen short in others (rebounding). All in all, he’s about where I expected him to be 20 games into his Jazz tenure. He should continue improving, and he’ll need to for the Jazz to be serious contenders.

Andrei Kirilenko – While there’s always a part of me that’s disappointed when AK consistently fails to be the player he was 5 years ago, he is meeting my expectations if not my hopes.

Falling Short
Gordon Hayward – I was livid when the Jazz drafted him. He began to change my mind a little with his solid performance during summer league. Then he teased me with his 26-point outburst against the Lakers during preseason. Unfortunately he’s done nothing since. It’s still early, but I expect more from the #9 pick.

Raja Bell – I’m basing this solely on his on-court performance and not his locker room impact, which I think is invaluable. Bell is simply not shooting well enough. With the loss of Korver and Matthews, the Jazz desperately need Raja's outside shot.

In summary, this team seems to be coming together a little ahead of schedule. That said, I’m sticking with my prediction of 55 wins. The West is just too good. The Jazz managed to win a few games they probably shouldn’t have, and they’ll need better play out of their wings in particular if they want to keep up the current pace.

The Comeback Kids

2010-11-30T11:54:00.000-08:00

November 30, 2010 -
This year’s Utah Jazz team is definitely not for the faint of heart. Absolutely unreal how they have managed to consistently fall behind by double digits and then somehow come back to win.

It’s even more amazing when you look at the teams they’ve done it against. The Jazz had 8 such 10+ point comebacks during the month of November and managed to pull them off against some of the top teams in the league

Here's a summary of their conquests:

Nov 6: Clippers – trailed by 18 – won by 2 (double OT)
Nov 9: @Heat – trailed by 22 – won by 2 (OT)
Nov 10: @Magic – trailed by 18 – won by 10
Nov 12: @Hawks – trailed by 11 – won by 4
Nov 13: @Bobcats – trailed by 19 – won by 1
Nov 20: @Blazers – trailed by 11 – won by 9
Nov 26: Lakers – trailed by 19 – won by 6
Nov 28: @Clippers – trailed by 10 – won by 12

With the exception of the perennially woeful Clippers whom the Jazz victimized twice, all the teams on the list made the playoffs last season. Additionally, 6 of the 8 wins occurred on the road and 4 of them were on the 2nd night of a back-to-back -- two areas the Jazz have struggled in recent seasons. I don’t have the time or motivation to do the research right now, but I would be surprised if an NBA team has ever had this many double-digit comeback wins in a single month. Truly a November to remember.

While the ability to come back from seemingly insurmountable deficits it’s certainly a good thing, being forced to do it on a regular basis is not. Championship teams don’t routinely fall behind by double-digit margins. They put teams away early. The Jazz have shown tremendous heart and determination by refusing to quit no matter what the score, but they need to come out of the blocks a little faster if they plan to keep winning.

Every-Other-Game Al

2010-11-22T13:07:00.000-08:00

November 22, 2010 -
That headline is my new nickname for Al Jefferson, which I sincerely hope doesn’t stick. While scanning through Big Al's game stats, I happened to notice an interesting and somewhat disturbing trend. He seems to have one good game followed by a less-than-stellar outing. With the exception of the first four games of the season, Jefferson has never increased his scoring output in consecutive games. It goes up one game, then drops the next.

Jefferson’s first regular-season game (heretofore referred to as Game 1) in a Jazz uniform was forgettable. He scored only 6 points against Denver. He has failed to reach double digits only one other time since, a 2-point outing against Miami in Game 7. Big Al’s next-lowest scoring totals came in games 11 and 13, in which he put up 12 and 10 points respectively. In odd-numbered games, Jefferson is averaging a dismal 12 points on 40% shooting (31/77).

Even-numbered games have been a completely different story. Jefferson has averaged 20 points on 52% shooting (60/115) in those contests. He is also averaging 5 more minutes played in those games, which I think is more of a result of his higher productivity rather than a cause for it.

Here’s the real kicker: Utah’s record in even-numbered games is 6-1. In odd-numbered games, it's only 3-4.

The Jazz have only won a single game in which Jefferson scored less than 15 points, and that was the Miracle in Miami when Millsap posted a career-high 46 to offset Big Al’s disappointing night. The team clearly needs his scoring punch, and they tend to struggle without it.

We’re only 14 games into an 82-game season, so there’s not much statistical validity to any of this yet. Still, it’s somewhat concerning that Jefferson seems to have trouble putting up strong performances in consecutive games. The silver lining here is that he doesn’t string together consecutive bad games either. My hope is consistency (the good kind) will come in time as he becomes more comfortable with the system and his teammates.

EDIT: I wrote this article before the Sacramento game (#15 -- an odd number) on Monday night. Naturally, Jefferson had to go damage my theory with a 19-point outing against the Kings. Still, it was statistically worse than his previous game (20 pts on 8-13 shooting), so if he turns in a better performance on Wednesday then the pattern remains in tact.

Paul Millsap Takes His Talents To South Beach

2010-11-10T08:38:00.000-08:00

November 10, 2010 -
Let’s pretend you don’t already know what happened. Let me give you some key statistics from last night's Utah @ Miami game, and you tell me what outcome you would expect:

- Al Jefferson has his worst game of the season, scoring only 2 points on 1-7 shooting and spends the entire 4th quarter on the bench
- Raja Bell manages only 3 points on 1-6 shooting, his lowest output of the year
- CJ Miles hits only 5 of 14 shots including a dismal 0-6 from behind the arc
- The Jazz shoot 27% from the field in the first half and trail by 19 points at halftime
- Deron Williams fouls out
- Ronnie Price and Francisco Elson are in the lineup at the end of the game
- Dwayne Wade scores 39 points while shooting over 50%
- Lebron James posts his first triple-double in a Heat uniform (20 pts, 11 rbs, 14 asts)
- Chris Bosh exceeds his season averages in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks
- The Heat’s “big 3” combine for 76 points, 26 rebounds, 18 assists, 5 blocks, and 2 steals
- Miami attempts 47 free throws to Utah’s 21
- The Heat outrebound the Jazz and have fewer turnovers

Presented with that list of facts prior to the game, I would have guessed Utah loses by at least 20. Well, unless you’ve been living in a sports-free bubble for the past 12 hours, you know that despite the aforementioned statistics, the Jazz managed to mount a furious comeback and stun the Heat in overtime (despite trailing by 8 points with less than 30 seconds in regulation). So how in the world did this happen?

Three words: Paul Freakin’ Millsap

In one of the most impressive individual performances I’ve ever witnessed, Paul Millsap placed the Jazz squarely on his undersized-for-a-power-forward shoulders and willed them to an improbable victory. He scored 46 points (the most of any Jazz player since Karl Malone in 1998) and grabbed 9 rebounds while taking charges, playing tough defense, and doing everything but wiping sweat off the floor during timeouts.

Although most of his damage was predictably done in the paint, Millsap showcased a well-rounded offensive game, including the debut of a new weapon in his arsenal: the 3-point shot. Sap hit three clutch 3-pointers in the final minute of regulation to help force overtime. Prior to this game, he had only made two 3s in his 5-year NBA career. Jazz and Heat fans were equally stunned.

To be fair, Deron Williams (21 pts, 14 asts) and Andre Kirilenko (16 pts, 9 rbs, 7 asts) also contributed solidly to the victory, but this was Millsap’s show. Prior to the game, Chris Webber on NBA TV chose Sap as his fantasy pick of the night, stating that he believed Paul would have a strong performance against Miami’s front line. In his wildest fantasy, however, I don’t think CWebb imagined how right he would be.

Through the first 7 games, Millsap is now averaging 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting over 63% from the field. He won’t sustain this level for the entire season, but he’s already proven to be more than just a suitable replacement for Boozer at the power forward position. Millsap is a clear upgrade.

CJ Miles - Jazz Wild Card

2010-11-04T23:35:00.001-07:00

November 4, 2010 -
In a conversation with a fellow Jazz fan during the preseason, I stated that Utah’s wins this season would be more heavily correlated with CJ Miles’ performance than any other player. My thought process was as follows:

The PG position is rock solid. Deron is the best in the league, and the addition of Watson gives the Jazz a proven vet playing behind him. Price can fill in as needed.

The PF/C rotation is looking great with Jefferson, Millsap, AK, Memo, and a much-improved Fesenko (I'm not even counting Elson who may also contribute). The Jazz are bigger and better here on both sides of the ball over last season and will match up favorably with just about anyone.

The wing positions provide the biggest question marks. The Jazz haven't had consistent scoring from the wing in years. They've also had the propensity to get absolutely lit up by opposing SG/SFs. Bell will help with perimeter defense and outside shooting. Hayward should contribute, but it's tough to expect too much from him this year. Kirilenko will be important, but he's really more of an interior player than a true wing.

I think the major wild card is CJ. If he can provide that scoring punch and defensive energy off the bench, effectively taking some of the pressure off Deron and Al to have a big game every night, the Jazz will be a tough team to beat.

The first four games of the season have certainly supported my theory. Miles has averaged 20 points in Utah’s wins and only 2 points in their losses. Taking that a step further, he was 1-8 FG (0-3 3pt) combined in the two losses and 15-25 FG (8-11 3pt) in the two wins. That's a pretty remarkable contrast.

In the spirit of full disclosure, Miles was hardly the only Jazz player who stepped up his game in Utah's victories. But I can confidently say that no other player performed so poorly in the losses.

As CJ Miles goes, so go the Jazz… At least after four games.

It's Just Two Games

2010-10-30T10:38:00.000-07:00

October 30, 2010 -
The Cleveland Cavaliers posted the NBA’s best record last season at 61-21. Ironically, they started out by losing their first two games. The 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks finished with a league-best 67-15 record. They began that season with 4 consecutive losses—including a 31-point jack-stomping by the Rockets and an 18-point beat down by (of all teams) the LA Clippers.

So what’s my point? Utah’s lopsided losses to Denver and Phoenix are no reason to hit the panic button.

I’ll admit, I was pretty bummed after both of those games. It’s definitely not the way I wanted – or anticipated – the Jazz to start the season, particularly after watching them go 8-0 in the preseason. However, prior to the surprising preseason win-streak, my expectations were a little more in line with reality.

The Jazz are a remade team this season, with six new rotation players – two of which are starters. They need time to learn the system and get in sync with each other. It will happen. I still have faith in this team, and I am not ready to back off my prediction of a 55-win season. I won’t be surprised if they hover around .500 for the first 10-15 games before things really start to click. After that, watch out.

Utah Jazz Season Preview 2010-11

2010-10-25T23:26:00.000-07:00

October 25, 2010 -
With the Jazz set to begin playing games that actually count on Wednesday, it’s time for my annual season preview. Heading into last year, I wasn’t feeling much optimism. I expected more of the same: a good-but-not-great regular season followed by an early playoff exit. I officially predicted Utah would win 54 games, earn a 4th seed in the West, and lose easily to the Lakers in the 2nd round. The Jazz simply didn’t have a championship-caliber roster. That fact had been evident to me for quite some time.

My forecast was eerily accurate. Utah won 53 games, landed the 5th seed in the Western Conference (actually tied for 4th), and was unceremoniously swept by LA in the conference semis. Despite the fact they finished only 2 regular-season wins short of the 2nd seed in the uber-competitive West and managed to upset the heavily favored Nuggets (my second most-hated team behind the loathsome Lakers) in the opening round of the playoffs, the Jazz never really looked like a title contender.

Heading into the 2010-11 season, my mood is completely transformed. Considering how many key players the Jazz lost this summer, optimism is somewhat of an unexpected emotion. Three months ago I was ready to give up on Utah’s front office, calling them complacent and content with mediocrity. Now I’m signing their praises.

Let’s start with a statistical recap of last season, followed by my 2010-11 projections:

2009-10 Record: 53-29 (1st-tie in Northwest Division; 4th-tie in Western Conference; Lost in 2nd round of playoffs)

2009-10 Statistical Leaders:
Points: Carlos Boozer (19.5)
Rebounds: Carlos Boozer (11.2)
Assists: Deron Williams (10.5)
Steals: Andrei Kirilenko (1.43)
Blocks: Andrei Kirilenko (1.22)
FG%: Carlos Boozer (56.2%)
3Pt%: Kyle Korver (53.6%)
FT%: Wesley Matthews (82.9%)

Key Additions: Al Jefferson (trade), Raja Bell (free agent), Earl Watson (free agent), Francisco Elson (free agent), Gordon Hayward (1st-round pick), Jeremy Evans (2nd-round pick)

Key Subtractions: Carlos Boozer (free agency), Wesley Matthews (free agency), Kyle Korver (free agency), Kosta Koufos (trade), Ronnie Brewer (trade), Eric Maynor (trade)

Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup:
Deron Williams (PG), Raja Bell (SG), Andrei Kirilenko (SF), Paul Millsap (PF), Al Jefferson (C)

2010-11 Roster/Depth Chart
PG – Deron Williams, Earl Watson, Ronnie Price
SG – Raja Bell, CJ Miles
SF – Andrei Kirilenko, Gordon Hayward, Jeremy Evans
PF – Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur
C – Al Jefferson, Kyrylo Fesenko, Francisco Elson

Team Strengths
Point Guard – D-Will is the best in the business, and he keeps getting better. The addition of Earl Watson brings an experienced vet to man the ship while Deron gets a breather, which should take off some pressure. Utah will outclass virtually every team at this position.

Interior Scoring – The Jazz always have one of the highest FG% in the league, as their offense is designed to create layups and easy shots. Jefferson, Millsap, and Kirilenko will be a tough frontline for opposing defenses to contain.

Coaching – Despite the fact he’s regularly snubbed for COY, Sloan is a deserving hall-of-famer who demands (and usually receives) the best from his players. This year he actually has the right pieces to work with.

Home Court – There isn’t a more difficult place to play (according to NBA GMs) than Energy Solutions Arena.

Roster Flexibility – Almost every player on the Jazz roster can play multiple positions, giving Sloan the flexibility to create mismatches and exploit opponent weaknesses. The Jazz have at least five realistic options at every position:

PG – Williams, Watson, Price, Hayward, Kirilenko, Miles
SG – Bell, Miles, Price, Williams, Watson, Hayward, Kirilenko
SF – Kirilenko, Miles, Hayward, Bell, Evans
PF – Millsap, Kirilenko, Jefferson, Okur, Evans, Elson
C – Jefferson, Fesenko, Okur, Elson, Millsap

Concerns
Wing scoring – Will anyone step up and provide consistent scoring from the wing? It’s been five years since a Jazz wing averaged over 14 points per game, and that was Kirilenko (who is more of a tandem forward). It’s been over 10 years since a Jazz shooting guard did it, and that was Jeff Hornacek. Utah desperately needs consistent scoring from the wing, whether from a single player or by committee.

Interior defense – While the loss of Boozer (who played defense like a 6-year-old girl) should be addition by subtraction in this area, Jefferson isn’t exactly known as a defensive stopper. He is bigger than Boozer, however, and will block and alter more shots. This was a major weakness last year but did appear improved during the preseason. Still, it’s an area of concern until proven otherwise.

Outside shooting – Particularly with Okur out to start the season, this may be a deficiency. Korver is gone (you can’t help but miss a guy who shoots over 50% from behind the arc), and so is Matthews (38% from 3). Bell and CJ will need to light it up to prevent this from becoming a glaring weakness.

Wildcards
CJ Miles – The Jazz lost three key wings from last season: Matthews, Korver, and Brewer. CJ isn’t the athlete Brewer was, the defender Matthews was, or the shooter Korver was. BUT, he is capable of doing all three of those things in combination better than any of the aforementioned players. Miles appears slotted for a 6th-man role this season, and Utah will need his scoring punch off the bench. If he has the breakout year Jazz fans have been waiting for…

Andrei Kirilenko – Can he stay healthy, physically and mentally? It’s tough to place a value on AK when he plays with confidence and consistency. He’s a game changer. At his best, Kirilenko paired with Williams and Jefferson gives the Jazz a “Big 3” on par with anyone but the Superfriends in Miami (and Utah has a much better supporting cast).

Mehmet Okur – When and how well will he come back from that Achilles injury? If truly healthy, Memo could be an outstanding weapon off the bench at either the 4 or 5 spot.

Player Projections
This is the part where I gaze into my crystal ball (which happens to be a fish bowl that really needs cleaning) and predict individual performances for the season:

Deron Williams established himself as the top PG in the league last season, and he’ll keep that title this year. While his Team-USA buddies whine for trades and collude to join forces in big markets, Deron will quietly deliver an MVP-caliber performance.

Al Jefferson received a guarantee when he came to Utah that Deron Williams would make him an all-star. That promise will be fulfilled in February when Big Al is named an all-star reserve by the coaches. Jefferson will take a few months to achieve peak performance, but he’ll be a regular 20/10 machine by 2011.

Paul Millsap won’t improve much statistically from last season, but he will continue his progression as a player. Sap will be the perfect complement to Jefferson, bringing consistent hustle, energy, and toughness to the front line.

Andrei Kirilenko will have his best season since 2005-06. Though he won’t match his statistical totals from that year, he will have an invaluable impact on games and be a major catalyst to Utah’s success. Despite the potential trade value of his expiring contract, AK will finish the season a Jazzman.

Raja Bell will benefit the team with intangibles as much as he does with his defense and outside shooting. Similar to AK, his stats won’t convey the full value of his presence. Raja’s attitude will help revive the culture of toughness from Jazz teams of the past that seemed to have disappeared in recent seasons.

Mehmet Okur will struggle a little bit and probably have his worst statistical year in a Jazz uniform. Part of this will be due to his injury, and part will be due to a lack of minutes created by the play of Jefferson, Millsap, Kirilenko, and even Fesenko. Still, he will be a valuable contributor off the bench and will win a few games for the Jazz with his clutch shooting.

CJ Miles will finally almost become the player Jazz fans have been hoping he would become since he was drafted straight out of high school five years ago. Though nothing to generate all-star chatter, CJ will have something that could qualify as a breakout year. He won’t, however, deliver quite the needed consistency to make the Jazz true title contenders.

Gordon Hayward will look like a ROY candidate one game and a D-Leaguer the next. Still, Gordon will make a meaningful contribution throughout the season and validate Utah’s decision to make him the 9th pick in the draft (can’t believe I actually said that).

Earl Watson will start slow but finish strong. He will have some fans clamoring for Price early on, but by the all-star break Watson will be the best back-up PG in Utah since Howard Eisley (on his first tour of duty) played behind Stockton.

Kyrylo Fesenko will continue to drive Sloan nuts and remind Jazz fans of a more-athletic Ostertag by looking brilliant one night and failing to show up the next. Even so, Fess will have by far his beast season to date and will be a key cog in the second unit.

Francisco Elson will make KOC look smart. He will more than earn his vet-minimum salary by providing defense, rebounding, and toughness in limited minutes. In fact, he’ll become a fan favorite by getting under the skin of opposing players—something he managed to do twice in the preseason despite only playing in two games.

Ronnie Price will make Sloan wish he had more minutes to dole out. His playing time will be hampered by the presence of Watson, but Price will still find a way to contribute, bringing energy and hustle.

Jeremy Evans will once again make KOC and the Jazz scouting department appear brilliant. This 2nd-round gem will spend time in Orem but will actually work his way into some minutes as the season progresses. Portland is probably already preparing a toxic contract offer for him when he becomes a restricted free agent.

Putting It All Together
Three months ago I never would have imagined saying this, but this Jazz team could actually contend for a title. I didn’t like the roster composition of last year’s team. They were too small, too soft, and didn’t have the right chemistry. Hate to single anyone out, but Utah simply was not going to win on the delicate back of Carlos Boozer.

Following a masterfully orchestrated offseason by Kevin O’Connor, Utah now has the pieces in place to be a legitimate title contender. BUT (and this is a Charles Barkley-sized but), it will take everyone staying healthy and playing up their potential to make it happen. Realistically, I think the Jazz are still a couple of years away.

Based on where the “experts” are predicting them to finish, however, they'll be a lot closer than most people think this season.

Projected 2010-11 Record: 55-27
(1st in Northwest division, 2nd in Western Conference, lose to Lakers in Western Conference Finals)

Do Preseason Wins Mean Anything?

2010-10-20T15:44:00.000-07:00

October 20, 2010 -
I’ve never been one to put much stock in preseason results. These games are less about winning and more about fine-tuning rosters, evaluating young players, and experimenting with lineup combinations. Starters rarely play more than 30 minutes, and the best players are rarely on the floor at the end, even in close games.

That said, with last night's victory over the Lakers the Jazz are now 7-0 in the preseason, with 5 of those victories coming on the road and 6 coming against 2009-10 playoff teams. That’s gotta count for something, right?

Turns out there is a positive correlation (rated at 0.4 for you stats geeks) between preseason wins and regular-season performance. Since 2004-05, teams that post a winning record in the preseason have made the playoffs 65% of the time, whereas only 38% of teams with a losing preseason record made the postseason. Taking it a step further, every team that has gone undefeated or had only one loss during the preseason made the playoffs. Only one team, the 2007-08 Cavs, earned a playoffs berth after posting one win or less in the preseason.

While I’m encouraged by those statistics, I’m much more excited by the way the new-look Jazz have played than the fact that they have yet to lose. For example:

- I’m excited that Al Jefferson was able to frustrate (if not dominate) Pau Gasol at both ends of the court -- something Boozer could never dream of doing

- I’m excited that Andrei Kirilenko is playing with more confidence than I’ve seen from him in years

- I’m excited that baby-faced Gordon Hayward dropped 26 points on the Lakers (primarily against their starters) while showing off an array of all-around skills

- I’m excited that CJ Miles is embracing his new 6th-man role and providing a much-needed scoring punch off the bench

- I’m excited that Fesenko looks fitter, faster, and more focused than I've ever seen

- I’m excited that Jeremy Evans -- who can jump out of the gym -- is playing light years beyond my wildest expectations and could actually work his way into the rotation this season

- I’m excited that team defense seems to be improving as the preseason progresses

I could actually keep going, and that’s a testament to how good this team has looked. All these positive observations mean much more to me than an undefeated preseason record.

Still, I’d much be 7-0 than 0-7.

Jazz-Suns Preseason Impressions

2010-10-15T22:13:00.000-07:00

October 15, 2010 -
I came home from work yesterday to a pleasant surprise: The Jazz/Suns preseason game was televised (in HD) on League Pass. This was my first opportunity to actually watch the new-look team (referring both to the uniforms and the new players), so needless to say I was excited.

After watching the game, I’m still excited.

Recognizing that a single preseason game is hardly a valid sample size, here’s my analysis, player by player, of what I saw last night.

Let's start with the new guys:

Al Jefferson: I have officially added Minnesota GM David Kahn to my Christmas card list for the absolute gift he gave us this summer. Jefferson is a beast. Watching him go to work in the post was a thing of beauty. It’s so nice to have a player you can throw the ball into and expect him to score. His footwork, ball fakes, and touch around the basket are superb. Without a double team, he scored at almost every opportunity.

I was surprised at the fluidity of his mid-range shot. His passing, believed to be one of his weaknesses, looked solid to me. He had 3 assists, including a beauty to a cutting Millsap for a layup.

I was literally giddy after witnessing Jefferson’s performance. I know it’s just the preseason, but he was unstoppable in the post. Once he gets a little more comfortable in the system, I could see him averaging 25 points per game. Yes, he looked that good. Carlos Boozer will not be missed. Period.

Gordon Hayward: On the one hand, he definitely looked like a rookie. On the other hand, he showed me enough positives to make me feel he will turn into a legit player. I’m just not sure how long it will take.

He wasn’t abused on defense the way I feared he might be. On offense, his shot wasn’t falling and he clearly struggled to finish through contact. He seemed to be thinking too much and probably still has some nerves. He did, however, show some great court vision and passing skills. The ball doesn’t stop when it comes to him. He seems to understand the offense already, which is a great sign. I’m still not convinced the Jazz made the right pick, but I’m also not convinced they didn’t.

Jeremy Evans: Holy freakin’ pogo stick! This kid can jump. High. Evans was probably the player I was most excited to watch after reading about his freakish athleticism. He didn’t disappoint. The guy is just instant energy. While I originally expected Evans to spend the year with the Flash (if he even made the final roster), I now think he may crack the rotation at some point. Last night he had 12 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals, and 1 assist… in only 13 minutes. He needs polish and he needs muscle, but this kid has a bright future. KOC found another 2nd-round steal.

Earl Watson: I was thrilled when the Jazz signed him. He didn’t show me much last night, although he did have 4 assists with no turnovers. It will take a while for him to get comfortable, but I think he’ll be a solid backup for Deron. I love his intensity on defense.

Raja Bell: Good to have him back in a Jazz uniform. Didn’t do much statistically, but you can tell he just fits on this team.

Now for the incumbents:

Deron Williams: He was solid but not spectacular. You can tell he has another gear that he simply hasn’t engaged yet because there is no reason to. His play was a little sloppy, but his brilliance still shone through at times. I expect an MVP-caliber year from him.

Andrei Kirilenko: What is up with the hair? A few more inches and he’ll have the full Fabio. Aside from that, he looked good. Nothing we haven’t seen before. He does so many things that don’t show up in the box score, and last night was no exception.

Paul Millsap: He had a solid game. Didn’t have a particularly eye-popping stat line, but he looked good. While Jefferson’s presence will probably hurt his stats a little, I think their games will actually complement each other pretty well.

Kyrylo Fesenko: Fess actually looks quite a bit better to me. I heard he dropped 20 pounds, and it really shows with his improved mobility. He is amazingly quick and agile for a player his size. He still makes boneheaded mistakes, but this performance gave me hope that he may actually have a breakout season.

CJ Miles: He looked OK. Not a great game, but definitely not a poor one. He was 2 for 2 from behind the arc, so that’s a bonus. I may have my expectations a little too high for CJ, mostly because I think the Jazz will really need him this year. I hope he finds his groove quickly.

Ronnie Price: Barely played and didn’t take a shot. I think we know what to expect from him by now.

Everybody Else (Gaines, Jeffers, Thompson, Nichols): These four are competing for what will likely be a single, final roster spot. None of them particularly stood out last night. Gaines is a long shot simply because Utah already has 3 PGs with guaranteed contracts (Williams, Price, Watson). Jeffers plays hard but is undersized (I think he got his shot blocked 3 or 4 times). I didn’t really get much of a feel either way for Thompson or Nichols, so I have no opinion yet as to whom I prefer.

In summary, I was pretty impressed with the team as a whole. They still have rough edges as would be expected with so many new faces. Still, something just feels good about this group. Can’t wait to watch more of them and see how accurate my first impressions prove to be.

From Offseason to Preseason

2010-10-06T23:33:00.000-07:00

October 6, 2010 -
Kevin O’Connor did his job. Now it’s Jerry Sloan’s turn.

Following one of the busiest offseasons in team history, the Utah Jazz are now officially in preseason mode. Sloan has the not-insignificant task of integrating a plethora (can’t ever use that word without thinking of El Guapo on The Three Amigos) of new faces, most of whom will be expected to contribute in a big way. This was by no stretch of the imagination a typical Jazz summer.

To put things in perspective, it’s entirely possible that Deron Williams will be the only Jazz player to start the first game of both the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. That’s big change, especially for a conservative franchise like Utah. You have to go back five years (Deron’s rookie season) to find the last time 3 starters changed from one season to the next. The Jazz have never changed 4 starters over one season in my 20+ years as a fan.

To put it lightly, Sloan has his work cut out for him.

That said, this may end up being one of his easier coaching years in recent history. Why, you ask? Because looking at this roster, I see more toughness and fewer egos. I see guys who are committed to working hard and getting better. I see guys who actually want to be on this team and seem to genuinely like each other. Music to Jerry's ears.

(I also see more size and athleticism than I ever recall seeing on a Utah team, but I’ll save that for another post.)

It can be tough to separate fact from fiction in the world of blogs and internet bulletin boards, but from everything I gather, this team seems to be on the same page. The new guys are all saying the right things, and the “inside” scoop is that all the players are particularly high on Jefferson, Hayward, and 2nd-round pick, Jeremy Evans.

I’m not ready to make my season predictions yet (I’ll wait to watch a few preseason games before doing that), but I’m feeling optimistic. Jerry has a big job to do, but I think he’ll do it well. And I think he’ll enjoy it.

Utah Jazz Offseason Grade

2010-09-24T23:03:00.000-07:00

September 24, 2010 -
At one point during the first part of July, the Jazz appeared headed for disaster. They had lost four key contributors from the team that began the 2009-10 season (Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and Eric Maynor) and got no one back in return. Thanks to the Portland Trailblazers, who seem to have made it their mission to offer oversized, front-loaded contracts to all of Utah’s restricted free agents, the Jazz were on the verge of losing a fifth (Wesley Matthews). To make matters worse, Utah was still over the salary cap and therefore didn’t have the means to pursue any marquee free agents from other teams. The future looked bleak, raising fears that Deron Williams would soon want out. The logical next steps were for Sloan to announce his retirement, Nuskin to drop their sponsorship of the Jazz Dancers, and the ESA scoreboard to crash down on center court.

Just as the last glimmers of hope were flickering out, Kevin O’Connor ducked into a phone booth, exchanged his suit for some purple and green tights, and emerged as Super GM. (OK, that was lame, but KOC really did pull off a minor miracle when all seemed lost.) Over the remainder of the summer, the Jazz did more than just salvage their offseason—they somehow managed to actually improve their roster over last year.

It all started with a move that reminded me of the Lakers’ infamous “trade” with Memphis to acquire Pau Gasol for a ham sandwich and a bag of stale chips (about which I’ve always wondered who in the LA front office had incriminating photos of whom in the Memphis front office). The Jazz managed to steal Al Jefferson from Minnesota for Kosta Koufos, 2 protected 1st round draft picks, and a trade exception. Sucks to be a T-Wolves fan.

Jefferson is a beast. While it may take him a while to get comfortable with the new system, he should eventually have no trouble replacing Boozer’s scoring and rebounding. Plus he’s bigger and younger. This was a clear upgrade.

Next, the Jazz brought back Raja Bell on a free agent contract. Bell should be able to replace Matthews production for about a third of the price. He also brings leadership and toughness that the Jazz have been lacking in recent years.

After trading for Jefferson and signing Bell, I fully expected the Jazz to round out their roster with rookies and D-leaguers just to keep the tax bill to a minimum. But KOC wasn’t finished. First, he signed 7-footer Francisco Elson who will give the Jazz additional size and athleticism behind Jefferson at center. I don’t expect too much from Elson, but with Okur likely to miss the first part of the season, this was an important signing.

Finally, the Jazz shored up another weakness by signing Earl Watson to backup Williams at the point. I was actually thrilled with this move. Watson is a tough defender and can run an offense effectively. Though he won’t see much playing time behind Williams, he gives the Jazz exactly what they need—a savvy vet to prevent the game from slipping away while Deron gets a breather.

In my 20+ years as a Jazz fan, I don’t ever recall a roster makeover quite this drastic. I’ve been screaming for Utah to make some moves for a few years now, and they finally did it. I really like this team on paper. The Jazz definitely got bigger and tougher. The biggest question is how well will they jell together?

Training camp starts next week, so we'll find out soon enough. If this group can develop the right chemistry, they could really make some noise.

Additions: Al Jefferson (trade), Raja Bell (FA), Francisco Elson (FA), Earl Watson (FA), Gordon Hayward (draft), Jeremy Evans (draft)

Subtractions: Carlos Boozer (FA - Chicago), Wesley Matthews (FA - Portland), Kyle Korver (FA - Chicago), Ronnie Brewer (trade – Memphis), Eric Maynor (trade – OKC), Kosta Koufos (trade – Minny)

Offseason Grade: A-minus. They certainly exceeded my expectations and made the most of a potentially devastating situation. Had the Jazz managed to keep Wesley Matthews, they would have earned an A.

Jazz Aren't Title Contenders...Yet

2010-08-02T22:49:00.000-07:00

August 2, 2010 -
I was just about ready to throw in the towel on the Jazz front office, declaring them content to mire in mediocrity and unwilling to take the risks necessary to build a true title contender. Supporting my case was a mound of evidence compiled over the past 18 months in the form of trades that never happened, deals that occurred simply for financial reasons, and free agents lost for seemingly nothing.

The last month has changed things considerably and proven that Greg Miller is indeed committed to more than just frugality. He wants to win, and as a fan, that’s what I needed to know.

Trading for “Big Al” Jefferson and signing Raja Bell was a huge step in the right direction, but I’m not yet ready to declare the Jazz title contenders. Here is my assessment on the current team needs:

- Post defender / shot blocker (Can that be Fess?)
- Backup PG (If only we still had Eric Maynor…)
- Outside shooting (Can CJ step up? Is Hayward ready to replace Korver?)
- Wing scoring (Still looking for Hornacek’s replacement after all these years)

Here's how I see the minutes shaking out to start the season with the current roster (and assuming Memo is still injured):

DWill (38), Price (10)
Bell (32), CJ (16)
AK (24), CJ (12), Hayward (12)
Millsap (36), AK (12)
Jefferson (36), Fess (12)

That’s not a bad looking lineup. Depending on the team chemistry and whether or not individual guys play to their potential, they could be as good as most anyone in the West. Still, I think the Jazz could become the primary contender to the Lakers with one or two more moves. Let's breakdown the weaknesses:

Defensive C
While Jefferson should be an upgrade over Boozer, he’s definitely not known for his defense. The Jazz still lack an intimidating presence in the middle. The best solution would be for Fesenko to evolve into that player, but I don’t really expect that to happen.

The wild card here is Ante Tomic. How good do the Jazz think he will be, and will he come over for the 2011-12 season? I can see Utah being hesitant to trade for immediate help if they believe their center of the future is already in the organization and ready to contribute next year.

Backup PG
Price is OK, but there is usually a noticeable drop off when he comes in for Deron. I’m still sick about the Maynor trade, as the Jazz would be rock solid at the point if he were still on the team. As it stands, any extended injury to Williams would kill this team. If Utah could figure out how to add a vet like Earl Watson, they would be well served to make it happen.

Outside Shooting
On the bright side, at least Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko can’t start together on the wings. On the not-so-bright side, Utah lost the NBA’s best 3-point shooter in Korver. Fortunately, the additions of Bell and Hayward should help ease the blow. The key here, however, is CJ Miles. He has a sweet stroke but a surprisingly low shooting percentage from behind the arc (34%). If CJ and Bell can both shoot near 40% (Bell is a career 41% 3-pt shooter), and Deron and Memo maintain their previous levels, the Jazz should be fine from the outside. Unless an obvious deal presents itself, I wouldn’t prioritize bringing in another shooter right now.

Wing Scoring
Similar to outside shooting, CJ Miles may be the key here. If he can finally have that breakout year that we’ve all been waiting for, he might become the consistent 3rd-scoring option the Jazz have been lacking since Hornacek retired. The other possibility is Kirilenko. We know he has it in him, but can he stay healthy AND focused for an entire season? I don’t have faith that either of those will happen, let alone both. With that in mind (and assuming Hayward won’t be ready to make a meaningful contribution), if the Jazz have the opportunity to acquire a top-tier wing -- even at some sacrifice -- they should strongly consider it.

The million dollar question is which of Utah’s weaknesses can be improved from within, and which will require a move or two to remedy?

As much as Utah needs a defensive post presence, swapping Boozer for Jefferson and giving more minutes to Fesenko should yield an improvement. Couple that with the potential that Ante Tomic could join the team next year, and it might not make much sense to prioritize going after another center.

I honestly think the team’s biggest need right now is a consistent scoring threat on the wing. If Andrei Kirilenko returns to his all-star form of 6 years ago, the Jazz are an immediate title contender. There are few players in the league I would rather have than AK at his best. This is the guy who averaged over 16 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists to go with nearly 3 blocks, and 2 steals per game. He was amazing to watch.

Unfortunately I don’t believe we will ever see that Andrei again, at least for any extended period. He’s still a valuable player, but the Jazz need someone more consistent to anchor the wing and provide a third scoring option behind Deron and Al.

I don’t expect the Jazz to make another move this offseason, other than to round out the roster with minimum-salary players. But I do hope they keep their eyes open for someone like an Andre Iguodala who could be available at a discount. An all-star-caliber wing like that would give the Jazz a triple threat as good as any in the league.

Raja Bell Is Back

2010-07-22T22:17:00.000-07:00

July 22, 2010 -
I’m still bitter about losing Wesley Matthews to the Blazers, but learning that Raja Bell has decided to sign with the Jazz is a nice consolation prize. What makes it all the more sweet is the fact that in opting for Utah, Bell rejected a personal sales pitch from Kobe Bryant to join the Lakers.

If you want to know why Kobe wanted Raja on his team, just take a look at the picture. In reference to that incident, I would normally lose respect for a player who laid a clothesline on an opponent in the middle of a game. But since Bell did this to Kobe Bryant, I’m completely fine with it. In fact, I respect him more for it. (For those not familiar with the situation, Bell was heavily provoked by cheap elbows from Kobe throughout the entire series. And yes, Bell was ejected and suspended for the maneuver.)

I was sorely disappointed when Bell left the Jazz to sign with the Suns 5 years ago, and I’m thrilled to have him back now. With Matthews gone, the Jazz desperately need his defense. With Korver gone, the Jazz need his 3-point shooting. But most of all, the Jazz need his toughness. Welcome back, Raja.

Gotta hand it to Kevin O'Connor. He's taken what was shaping up to be a disastrous offseason and turned it into something pretty exciting.

A Rabbit Named Al Jefferson

2010-07-15T22:56:00.000-07:00

July 15, 2010 -
“Greg Miller and Kevin O’Connor had better pull a serious rabbit out of their collective hat, or they stand to lose a lot of fans this season.”

I posted that quote a few days ago in reference to the mass exodus of talent the Jazz have experienced in the past 12 months. Fortunately Miller and KOC managed to pull out a 6'10" 260-lb rabbit who has the potential to more than replace the productivity lost when Boozer left for Chicago. Hallelujah! The Jazz front office actually did something positive. They renewed my hope that they just might care about more than profitability.

While this move certainly atones for the failure to trade Boozer last season, it doesn't mean that all is entirely forgiven. It also does not make the Jazz immediate title contenders (though it puts them much closer than they were just a day ago). Utah still needs to make another move or two if they want to legitimately challenge the Lakers, not to mention the new Superfriends in Miami.

At least now I'm excited again. Can't wait to see what comes next!

Front Office Wakeup Call

2010-07-12T22:38:00.000-07:00

July 12, 2010 -
I try to give people the benefit of the doubt. I really do. As a businessman, I understand the strategy and perspective that goes into many decisions that may not be apparent from an outside perspective. In short, I realize that “good” decisions may look like “bad” decisions to the uninformed.

Conversely, my business experience has also shown me that smart, informed people sometimes make extremely poor decisions.

The Jazz front office has been pursuing a stay-the-course strategy for years now. News flash: It’s not working. Actually I should clarify that. If their goal is to always be a mid-tier playoff team without any real shot at winning a title, then the strategy is working fine. If they, like most of us fans, have championship aspirations, then they need to make some changes.

When the Jazz selected Gordon Hayward with the 9th pick, I was livid. I honestly felt like I had been punched in the stomach. I have since realized that my disappointment over that draft pick was really a culmination of frustration with management’s apparent unwillingness to be aggressive and take the necessary calculated risks to become a legitimate title contender. For the Jazz, it’s all about maintaining the status quo. They put out a winning product that makes the playoffs year after year. This allows them to sell enough tickets to turn a profit. That seems to be more important than winning a championship. As a business man, I get it. As a fan, I hate it.

Prior to the 2006 NBA draft, the Jazz, after dropping to the 6th spot thanks to lousy luck with the ping pong balls, made an aggressive move to trade up to #3 so they could select Deron Williams, giving up 3 first round picks in the process. It was a gamble that paid off, and the kind of risk that championship teams have to take.

In 2008, Utah traded an expiring contract (Gordan Giricek) and a future 1st-round pick (which ended up being #23 this year) for Kyle Korver. Another calculated risk that arguably paid off. The Jazz needed outside shooting, and they got one of the best. Unfortunately injuries marred his performance somewhat, but it was still a smart move designed to make the team better.

Since that time, however, the Jazz have retreated back to the ultra-conservative approach. This has been particularly manifest in the past 12 months. Need proof?

Exhibit 1: The Jazz trade Eric Maynor and Matt Harpring to OKC for nothing more than salary cap relief.

Exhibit 2: The Jazz trade Ronnie Brewer to Memphis for a conditional future 1st-round draft pick.

Exhibit 3: The Jazz DON’T trade Carlos Boozer before the 2010 trade deadline, failing to acquire any assets in exchange for an all-star whom they were likely to lose for nothing in free agency.

Exhibit 4: Jazz have thus far failed to trade Andrei Kirilenko and his valuable soon-to-be-expiring contract.

Exhibit 5: Jazz fail to move up in the 2010 draft to acquire a potential star (i.e. Turner, Favors, Cousins) despite the fact that Philly was supposedly willing to trade the #2 pick to a team that would take Elton Brand’s contract.

Exhibit 6: The Jazz NEVER acquire 1st-round picks for cash considerations. The Dallas Mavericks bought the #25 pick (Dominique Jones, a player I would have loved to see on the Jazz) for cash.

Exhibit 7: The Jazz fail to work a sign-and-trade for Boozer, losing him to Chicago for nothing but a trade exception.

Exhibit 8: The Jazz lose Kyle Korver (who, by the way, set the NBA record for 3-pt percentage last season) to Chicago for no compensation and reportedly didn’t even make him a respectable offer.

I won’t enter this as official evidence since the jury is still out, but the Jazz also appear to be on the verge of losing Wesley Matthews for no compensation, as Portland gave him a bigger offer than Utah expected.

I don’t recall ever feeling this frustrated with the Jazz organization, and I know many others who feel the same way. If Utah doesn’t match the offer to Matthews, they will have watched 5 key contributors from last season walk away with nothing to show for it but a lower payroll. How is Deron Williams going to respond to this?

Greg Miller and Kevin O’Connor had better pull a serious rabbit out of their collective hat (wanted to use another word there), or they stand to lose a lot of fans this season. Perhaps more importantly, they stand to lose their franchise point guard in two years.

Gordon Hayward - Second Impression

2010-07-11T22:49:00.000-07:00

July 11, 2010 -
If you read my last post, you know how I felt about the Utah Jazz drafting Gordon Hayward. Since then, I had the chance to catch a few of Utah’s games during the Orlando Summer League this past week. While I still feel the Jazz made a mistake in the draft, I did at least come away somewhat more encouraged about Hayward.

His stats weren’t exactly attention grabbing, but Hayward played solidly and efficiently. I definitely get the sense he will be a much better player when surrounded by other good players. He plays a team game that is not effectively showcased in the less-structured summer-league environment. To his credit, he didn’t resort to the selfish tactics displayed by some of his teammates and generally stayed within the offense. The unfortunate result is that he didn’t get nearly the amount of touches I would’ve hoped for from the 9th pick in the draft.

Here is my general assessment of Hayward’s performance in the three games I watched:

Positives

Poise and confidence – He played under control and didn’t seem intimidated (despite the fact that he looks like a boy among men)
Shooting – He definitely has a nice stroke, and he shot over 50% for the week
Basketball IQ – He seems to have a great understanding of the game and generally made smart, team-oriented plays
Ball Handling – He has a good handle for a 6’8” player and made a few nice moves with the ball

Cons

Strength – He appeared physically outmatched at times
Athleticism – I’m not sure he will be able to get to the hoop against most NBA wings
Upside – Tough to judge this from a handful of summer league games, but I just don’t see this kid ever being more than a decent NBA role player

Of the three games I watched, I was particularly interested in Utah’s matchup with Indiana. The Pacers had the 10th pick in the draft (immediately after the Jazz) and selected Paul George, the player I had hoped the Jazz would take. This was Hayward’s worst game of the summer league. He looked totally outmatched by George, who scored 15 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, and looked every bit the part of a solid NBA prospect.

As I said, I still believe Utah made a mistake drafting Gordon Hayward with the 9th pick. While my impression of Hayward has definitely improved, I’m afraid passing on Paul George will come back to haunt the Jazz.

Gordon, PLEASE prove me wrong.

NBA Draft Shock And Awe

2010-06-30T22:13:00.000-07:00

June 30, 2010 -
I’m writing this after having a couple of days to cool down. Had I written it right after the NBA Draft, it probably wouldn’t have made it through many content filters.

I was on a business trip in Madison, Wisconsin the night of the Draft. We were actually at dinner, and I was checking the ESPN Draft Tracker on my Blackberry. Picks 1-5 went exactly as I expected (Wall, Turner, Favors, Johnson, Cousins). I was both surprised and disappointed to see Golden State take Ekpe Udoh at #6, as I had really hoped the Jazz would land him. Greg Monroe (the other player I really wanted) went next to Detroit at #7, as expected. The Clippers then took Aminu at #8, leaving the Jazz their choice of Ed Davis, Paul George, and Luke Babbitt, with an outside shot they might take Xavier Henry or Cole Aldrich. Or so I thought.

The anticipation was killing me as I hit “refresh” again and again, waiting for Utah’s selection to show up. Finally it did. And then I wished it hadn't. One minute I'm enjoying a delicious steak. The next, I've literally lost my appetite.

Years of waiting for this draft pick, with aspirations it could yield the next Lebron James or Dwight Howard, all flowed rapidly down the drain as the name flashed back at me from my Blackberry screen.

The Jazz didn’t go with the raw but talented power forward from North Carolina. They didn’t go with the athletic wing from Fresno whom some analysts said has as much upside as anyone in the draft. They didn’t even make the “safe” pick by taking the shot-blocking center from Kansas to shore up a long-term need.

Nope. Instead, the Jazz picked Opie.

Honestly, I am still stunned. Gordon Hayward? Really? Of all the players projected to be taken within 5 or 6 spots of where the Jazz picked, he is literally the LAST guy I would have chosen. Sure, he had a great season leading the unheralded Butler Bulldogs to within a missed last-second shot of shocking Duke in the national title game. But still. The kid looks like he’s 12 years old. I’m not sure his skills will translate to the NBA. He really doesn’t fit a need for the Jazz. Did I mention that I am still stunned?

I’ve been wrong before, and I hope I’m wrong now, but I think the Jazz blew this draft. Hopefully Hayward will change my mind in Summer League.

Draft Wish List

2010-06-05T23:44:00.000-07:00

June 5, 2010 - While I’m not entirely over my disappointment of the Jazz' lack of lottery luck, I have at least come to terms with the reality of the situation and begun to research players potentially available in the #9 range. Actually it’s probably misleading to say “begun to research” since I’ve been studying up on the top draft prospects for about 4 months now…

Yes, I’m a draft geek. I fully admit it. I take pleasure in analyzing the prospects and determining who would be the best fit for the Jazz. Naturally the players I most covet will be long gone by the time the 9th pick rolls around. But with that said, here’s my current draft board. I’ll list my top-10 players, knowing that at least 2 of them will still be on the board at #9. Plus there is always the outside chance the Jazz will trade up in the draft, so let’s take it from the top:

1. John Wall (PG, Kentucky) - You just can't pass on him with the #1 pick, even with an all-star PG already on the team. He could be a superstar. Could he and Deron coexist? At worst, you trade him for someone lower on the board + other considerations.

2. Evan Turner (SG/SF, Ohio State) – Big combo guard who would make an awesome backcourt mate for Deron. Can do everything (score, rebound, pass, defend, handle) except shoot the 3 with consistency. He could even play the point if needed.

3. Derek Favors (PF/C, Georgia Tech) - Incredible athleticism and potential on both ends of the court. Could become a dominant post player but may need some time to develop. Should actually be a better NBA player than college, especially with a PG like Deron to set him up. Not as NBA ready as the two players I rate just below him, but his potential is too much to pass up.

4. Wesley Johnson (SF, Syracuse) - Prototype SF with good size and athleticism. Good 3-pt shooter, and he averages nearly 2 blocks and 2 steals per game. More of an off-the-ball player than Turner, and therefore may actually be a better fit for the Jazz. Plus it would be cool to have a Wesley at each wing position.

5. Greg Monroe (PF/C, Georgetown) – Skilled big man with a well-rounded game and nice intangibles. Seems like he would fit well in the Jazz system and be able to contribute right away. His passing ability is outstanding for a big.

6. DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C, Kentucky) - If not for his questionable character and mental issues, he would be much higher. The guy is huge and skilled, but he’s a risky pick with bust potential. Still, his size and talent are too enticing to pass on him here.

7. Ekpe Udoh (PF/C, Baylor) – He continues to climb up mock draft boards. He has a rare combination of size, athleticism, and skills. Posted nearly identical rebounding and shot-blocking numbers to Cole Aldrich (playing in the same conference), and he shows much more promise on offense. Also reputedly a good passer.

8. Al-Farouq Aminu (SF, Wake Forrest) - Excellent athlete with a pretty well-rounded game. Has been compared to Luol Deng. He could make a nice eventual replacement for AK. Doesn’t fill an immediate need, but he’s too talented to leave on the board at this spot.

9. Ed Davis (PF, North Carolina) – Long and athletic with considerable upside, though he didn’t exactly dominate in college. Excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Reputedly has high bball IQ, character, and work ethic. Needs to get stronger, but he could be a nice tandem at PF with Millsap.

10. Paul George (SG/SF, Fresno State) – Fantastic athlete with great size for a wing and nice range on his shot. Potential to be a lock-down defender. Failed to dominate subpar competition in college but showed flashes of brilliance. Apparently wowed scouts with his athleticism at the combine.

I'd actually be pretty happy with any of these top-10 guys (which means I should be satisfied with the draft unless the Jazz do something stupid). My real hope is that either Greg Monroe or Ekpe Udoh slips to #9 (or the Jazz trade up a few spots to get one of them). The team has a clear need in the middle, especially considering Boozer won't be back. Either way, they need a shot blocker. With so many good PF/C types on the board, it will be a little disappointing if they don't find a way to get one.

Unlucky In Lottery

2010-05-20T23:55:00.001-07:00

May 20, 2010 -
The Jazz have the 9th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. While that should be exciting considering the fact that they would normally be picking in the early 20s, I can’t help feeling a little like a kid on Christmas who tears open a package with great anticipation only to find a new sweater instead of the toy he really wanted. I should be grateful, but I’m just not.

I’ve been waiting for that unprotected New York draft pick for years, hoping it would eventually yield a future superstar. Thanks to a lack of lottery luck, the odds of that happening now are in roughly the same range as Jerry Sloan becoming a contestant on Dancing with the Stars.

I’ve decided to express my frustration in the form of thank you notes to the parties I feel are most responsible:

The Knicks – Thanks for winning a bunch of games down the stretch you had no business winning. You trade away half your roster to clear cap space for free agency this summer, yet you still manage to win. It’s a safe bet you would have gone into complete tank mode if the Jazz didn’t own your 1st-round pick.

The Wizards and Sixers – Thanks for completely tanking the last few months of your seasons and finishing with a worse record than the lowly Knicks despite the fact you have much better players.

Lottery Karma – Thanks for rewarding the Wizards and Sixers for tanking their seasons and failing to reward the Jazz despite the fact that you moved them down two spots the last time they stood to land a high pick. You suck at justice.

The Atlanta Hawks – Thanks for being the only team with a winning record to lose to the Knicks not once, not twice, but THREE TIMES! Had you done your job, the Jazz pick would have picked no worse than 6th.

The NBA Draft is coming up on June 24th. Once I get over my self-pity about the Jazz missing out on a top-3 pick, I'll try to rank my draft prospects and create my wish list of players who may still be around at #9.

Summing Up The Season

2010-05-15T23:00:00.000-07:00

May 15, 2010 -
Things got busy and I stopped posting for a while. Admittedly some of that stemmed from disillusionment, and I’ll get into that in a minute. Long story short, I’m back. Not sure how often I'll be posting, but we'll see how it goes.

I may just have a second career at the Psychic Friends Network. A quick review of my 2009-10 season preview article from last October proved that my predictions were pretty much right on the money. I forecasted a 54-28 record, good for 2nd in the Northwest, 4th in the West, with the Jazz losing to the Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals. In reality, the Jazz finished with a 53-29 record, good for 2nd in the Northwest Division and 5th in the West (they actually matched Denver for the 4th-best record but lost the head-to-head tie breaker). And yes, they lost to the hated Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals.

While I'm admittedly pretty impressed with my prophetic skills, the spirit of my prediction is where my disillusionment comes in. I knew before the season even started the Jazz would post a decent record but would not be legitimate title contenders unless they made some roster moves. They did make moves (trading away young talent like Maynor and Brewer for little more than cap relief), but obviously not the kind I was hoping for. The Jazz had a decent season and were right there in the mix in the West, but they had no shot at getting past the Lakers (though I did expect them to win at least one game…) Frustrating to say the least. At least they sent the Nuggets packing in the first round. That was a nice consolation prize.

In summary, this season was a disappointment. The Jazz played it conservative, as usual. And they were good but not great, as usual.

Here are my positives and negatives for the year:

Positives:
Deron Williams – He became the best point guard in the NBA this season. He just keeps getting better.

Paul Millsap – He made the Jazz look smart for matching his contract. His stats were held down by Boozer’s continued presence, but Sap had a strong year and continues to grow as a player.

Wesley Matthews – Where did this kid come from? I still can’t believe he was undrafted. I hope he stays a Jazzman for a long time.

CJ Miles – He stepped it up big time in the playoffs. CJ has teased us before, but hopefully this is truly a sign of things to come next season.

Negatives:
Carlos Boozer – He actually played well and rose above the ugliness of the previous offseason, but he missed the regular season finale – the game that could have propelled the Jazz to the 3rd seed and allowed them to avoid the Lakers until the conference finals. Typical Booz. The real negative is that the Jazz failed to trade him and get something of value in return. Now they will lose him for nothing this summer.

Andrei Kirilenko – He was having his best season in years until he got hurt. Seems like if his body is healthy, his mind isn’t, and vice versa. He just can’t get it together consistently, which is a huge shame.

Eric Maynor – I’m still sick the Jazz traded him, especially since they did nothing but pocket the money they saved. That kid will be good.

Kosta Koufos – I expected a breakout year from him, but it didn’t happen. Not sure if he’s going to make it.

Kyrylo Fesenko – He made an impact in the Denver series, but he still doesn’t really seem to get it. He has all the physical tools but seems to lack the mental capacity to be a good NBA player. He’ll probably get one more chance to get it together.

Bye Bye Brewer

2010-02-18T21:25:00.000-08:00

February 19, 2010 -
When I said the Jazz needed to make a deal, this was not what I had in mind. Shortly before Wednesday’s trade deadline, Utah shipped Ronnie Brewer off to Memphis for a protected 2011 1st round pick. Yup, another salary dump. I guess they answered my question as to whether they would be buyers or sellers in this market.

Before I go any further, I want to say that I actually don’t mind this trade. While I’ve always liked Brewer, he wasn’t having a particularly strong year. Most of us were expecting him to take another step forward in his progression this season, but if anything he seems to have gone backwards. The Jazz also had a logjam of players at the wing positions with Kirilenko, Korver, Miles, and Matthews all competing with Brewer for minutes. Particularly with the way Matthews has exceeded expectations, Brewer won’t be that difficult to replace...at least on the court. Ronnie was apparently well liked by his teammates, and I just hope this trade doesn’t do anything to adversely impact team chemistry.

The real reason I don’t mind this trade is that the Jazz likely would not have been able to keep Brewer this summer anyway. With so many teams projected to have cap space, Ronnie would have most surely received an offer that Utah would be unable (or unwilling) to match. With that in mind, they did well to get a 1st-round pick for him rather than watching him walk away for no compensation.

While I don’t mind this trade, I’m upset that it was the only move Utah made. I believe the Jazz missed a golden opportunity to improve their team, and that will be the topic of my next article.

I’ll miss Brewer. Aside from the fact that he couldn’t shoot to save his life, he was a fun player to watch. I wish him all the best in Memphis.

Andrei Kirilenko, Where Have You Been?

2010-02-03T22:27:00.001-08:00

February 3, 2010 -
I thought we’d never see you again. That guy who looks like you – the one who has been wearing your uniform and cashing your enormous paychecks for the past few seasons – had really worn out his welcome. I was getting sick of his antics. It’s not that he did anything blatantly wrong; he just wasn’t the guy who earned a max contract extension five years ago. Not even close. He didn’t play with the same energy, passion, or plain joy that you did before you disappeared.

Anyway, I don’t know where you’ve been hiding out since 2006, but it sure is nice to have you back.

With tonight’s victory over Portland, the Jazz have now won 11 of their previous 12 games, and Kirilenko’s play is probably the single-biggest reason why. Over that stretch he averaged 14 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 1.5 blocks while shooting an impressively efficient 62% from the field. It’s been a while since he has put up numbers like that for any consistent period of time.

But AK has been even more impressive in the last 7 games (all Jazz victories), during which he averaged 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and shot an absolutely ridiculous 72% from the field. He’s also back to doing a bunch of things that don’t show up in the stat sheet (deflections, altered shots, etc) but make the Jazz a much more difficult team to beat.

Perhaps most importantly, he looks like he’s having fun out there. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen that from him, and it’s a welcomed sight.

Not too many weeks ago, I was just about ready to give up on this season. The Jazz were underachieving, and they honestly weren’t much fun to watch. I’m not quite sure what got Kirilenko and the rest of the team back on track, but I sure hope they can stay there.

Welcome back, Andrei. Please stick around this time.

Buyers or Sellers?

2010-01-21T14:59:00.000-08:00

January 21, 2009 -
Fact: More millionaires are made during a recession than at any other time. Why? Because resources (stocks, real estate, materials, labor, etc.) are typically available at discounted prices, and those willing to take calculated risks have the potential to reap significant rewards.

Now replace “millionaire” with “title contender,” and let’s talk about the NBA. The weak economy has put a number of teams into a difficult financial position, so much so that premium talent is available at a discount. Other teams with deeper pockets are clearly looking to take advantage of the potential fire sales offered by their cash-strapped counterparts.

The Utah Jazz are at a major crossroads right now. The young team with a promising future that reached the Western Conference Finals in 2007 has actually regressed each season since. Greg Miller and the rest of the front office must decide whether they are gong to be buyers or seller in this market.

The Maynor/Harpring “trade” was a strong indication the Jazz are looking to sell. They gave up a promising young player for nothing more than financial relief. Considering how far above the luxury tax line the Jazz were, it’s easy to understand why management felt this was a necessary move. To a fan, however, it sends the message that winning is not the top priority. And fans are the ones who buy the tickets, memorabilia, etc that generate revenue. Alienate the fans, and you lose money.

The NBA is a business. I get that. But as with any business, focusing on short-term cost cutting can end up hurting your long-term profit potential. Conversely, absorbing some short-term risk/pain can pay huge dividends down the road. If you stop investing in the future of your business, the competition will eat you alive. The best thing the Jazz can do right now from both a basketball and a financial perspective is to buy aggressively.

The Jazz have an impressive collection of tradable assets in the form of all-star talent, expiring contracts, young players with upside, and even an unprotected 1st-round pick (likely to be in the top 10). They also have a number of roster defects they need to address. Only the most optimistic fan could believe that this team as currently constituted will ever win a title. One or two aggressive deals, however, could position Utah as a championship contender for at least the next three years.

A winning team is good for the bottom line.

Perhaps most importantly, the Jazz may be able to convince a certain Olympic point guard they are committed to winning so he doesn’t skip town three years from now. In case you're reading, Greg, his departure would be extraordinarily bad for the bottom line.

(P.S. I’m still working on my list of potential trades, but I’ve already come up with numerous “realistic” deals that would make the Jazz better.)

Jazz Need To Make A Deal

2010-01-14T22:06:00.000-08:00

January 14, 2009 -
When asked about the potential of the Jazz making a trade before the February deadline, Jerry Sloan recently said, “I’d rather keep guys together so you have better continuity.” While that sentiment is understandable and may actually be the best course of action much of the time, it feels a little narrow-minded at the moment. The problem here is the core of this Jazz team has now been together for four seasons...and they seem to be getting worse every year.

Continuity is great if you’re winning. The Jazz are not (at least not enough).

Albert Einstein once said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The Jazz organization may not have received a clinical diagnosis yet, but the neighbors are beginning to point and whisper.

So who to trade? Honestly, for the right deal I would part with anyone on the roster aside from Deron Williams. With any trade, however, I would expect Carlos Boozer to be the centerpiece.

Many NBA analysts feel the Jazz will keep Boozer for the remainder of the season. That would be an enormous mistake, in my humble opinion. Follow my logic here:

1. The Jazz have no shot at winning the NBA title this season. In fact they’re not even in the playoff picture right now.

2. Carlos Boozer will be gone this summer. The Jazz can’t afford to pay him what he wants, and unlike this past summer, there will be a number of interested teams with the cap room to sign him.

3. It would be incredibly short-sighted to keep a player you know isn’t part of the team’s future just to potentially win a few more games this season. If the Jazz were legitimate title contenders, it would be a different story.

4. Even if they can’t get fair market value for Boozer, the Jazz would be better off receiving some kind of asset in return rather than losing an all-star for nothing.

I refuse to accept excuses from Utah’s front office that they can’t find a trade for Boozer that makes sense. I’ve heard the argument from some fans that no team will give up anything of value for Boozer when they know they could just sign him as an unrestricted free agent this summer. Again, I don't buy it. The team that traded for Boozer would have his Bird rights and be able to offer him more money and a longer contract than any other team. At worst, they would have the ability to make a sign-and-trade or free up cap room to go after another free agent.

Rod Thorne, GM of the New Jersey Nets, recently said, "if you make a deal for an expiring free agent of the major variety, you’d have to feel your chances were very good to re-sign that player." Interesting comment, as I believe New Jersey could be a legitimate trading partner. I don't know Boozer personally, but he certainly seems to be motivate by money. Pay him, and he'll sign.

I could probably come up with at least 30 “realistic” potential Boozer trades that I would willingly accept. In fact I'll try to make good on that in my next post.

There Better Be A Second Act

2009-12-28T15:59:00.000-08:00

December 28, 2009 -
When I learned the Jazz had just traded away Eric Maynor (along with Matt Harpring’s contract) to the Oklahoma City Thunder for nothing more than cap relief and the rights to some former 2nd-round pick who will never play in the NBA, my first thought was, “This had better only be the first move.”

The Jazz wouldn’t really trade away their promising rookie 1st-round draft pick (who also happened to be the best backup point guard they’ve had in nearly a decade) just to save a few bucks… Would they? Teams committed to winning don’t just give away young talent without getting a quality asset in return. No, the Jazz must be clearing that cap space in preparation for a bigger deal that will bring in a true impact player...

Right?

In fairness to the Jazz front office, the “few bucks” they save is actually around $12 million when you combine the salary and luxury-tax impact from dumping Harpring’s contract. That’s a lot of dough, especially for a small-market team. Still, it doesn’t exactly send the message to your season ticket holders that you are committed to winning.

Back in June, I wrote an article entitled Five Mistakes the Jazz Could Make This Summer. With this trade, Utah has now made three of those five mistakes (although they waited until winter for this one). Fortunately it’s not too late for them to repent. With one aggressive deal, the Jazz could fix all three transgressions and land back on the path to salvation. The mulit-million-dollar question (literally) is will they have the stones to make it happen? I'm skeptical.

Farewell Eric, we barely knew thee. I was disappointed when the Jazz drafted you, but you managed to change my mind in only a few short months. Best of luck in OKC, and try not to make the Jazz look too foolish for giving you away.

In the meantime, I’ll sit here waiting and hoping for Act II.

First Quarter Season Update

2009-12-20T00:04:00.000-08:00

December 20, 2009 –
The 2009-10 NBA season is now more than one quarter of the way complete. I give the Jazz a B-minus for their performance thus far. Utah is 16-11, good for 2nd in the Midwest division and tied with Houston for 5th in the Western Conference. If you take the glass-is-half-full perspective, you can point to the rash of injuries the team faced as a legitimate reason they don’t have a better record. You can also bring up their 3-0 record against the Spurs, and other marquee wins against the Blazers, Lakers, and Magic as cause for optimism, proving the Jazz can beat the NBA’s elite (at least at home).

On the other side of the coin, you can point to complete meltdowns in the 4th quarter of close games against good teams (Lakers, Rockets, Nuggets, Mavs). Then there are the two inexplicable losses to the inept Minnesota Timeberwolves.

Speaking of, how in the world do the Jazz beat the Lakers and the Magic (2 of the 3 best teams in the league) in consecutive outings and then turn around and lose at home to the T-Wolves (the 2nd-worst team in the league) the very next game? As of that December 14th loss to Minnesota in Utah, half of the T-Wolves 4 victories had come against the Jazz. The silver lining here is that the Jazz only have one additional loss to a sub-500 team (Sacramento), and the Kings are actually surprisingly respectable with a 12-14 record.

One word basically sums up Utah's theme thus far – inconsistency. The Jazz have been pulling a Jekyll-and-Hyde act all season. You just never know which team is going to show up on a given night. In my 2009-10 Season Preview article, I noted a high level of uncertainty about how the Jazz would perform this year. The first quarter of the season has done nothing to change that opinion. Below are a few of my random observations:

Bright Spots:
- Deron Williams - DWill is playing great and has looked like a true superstar at times. It will be a true crime if he doesn't get his first all-star bid this season.
- Carlos Boozer – Booz has returned to his all-star form, has remained healthy, and is playing better defense than in previous seasons.

Disappointments:
- Kosta Koufos – I really expected him to have a breakout year, and he hasn’t even been able to get off the bench.
- Ronnie Brewer – He hasn’t played poorly, but his production is down over last season despite playing more minutes. I was hoping for further improvement, but he may have already peaked.

Surprises:
- Wesley Matthews – He may not have even made the roster had Korver and Miles not gotten injured in the preseason, yet he managed to win the starting SG position and has been hailed as the best defender on the team.
- Eric Maynor – I made no bones about my disappointment with Utah’s draft selection, but Maynor has shown solid potential and plays with poise beyond his years.

Things to watch:
- Minutes - How will Sloan integrate CJ Miles and Kyle Korver back into the lineup now that they are healthy? Will a full roster actually hurt the team since there will be fewer minutes to go around?
- Trades – Will the Jazz make a move before the February trade deadline? Should they? I’ll speculate/opine on that in my next update.

Lineupology

2009-12-08T21:53:00.000-08:00

December 8, 2009 -
The Utah Jazz didn’t exactly explode out of the blocks to start the 2009-10 season. While they are playing better now, it took them 13 games to get above .500 for the first time. Much of the slow start could be attributed (once again) to injuries. The absence of their two best shooters (Korver and Miles) really hurt them, as evidenced by the steady dose of zone defense they saw from opponents.

But the problems run deeper than that. Plain and simple, the Jazz have a flawed roster. The team has plenty of talent, but the players don’t complement each other particularly well. While the best long-term solution would be to make a trade or two (something I hope to see happen prior to the February deadline, but I’ll save those thoughts for another post), let’s assume for now that the roster remains the same. Sloan can still mitigate some of the problems by using the right mix of players together and avoiding certain problem combinations:

Problem Combo #1 – Boozer and Okur make possibly the weakest defensive frontcourt tandem in the entire league. While both are talented offensive players, neither is a shot blocker, neither is a strong individual defender, and both are horrible at help defense.

Problem Combo #2 – Brewer and Kirilenko make one of the worst-shooting wing tandems in the league. While both are athletic, exciting players, neither can stretch a defense nor be counted on as a consistent scoring threat.

Unfortunately, Jerry Sloan was playing both of these combinations together in the starting lineup of Williams, Brewer, Kirilenko, Boozer, and Okur at the beginning of the year. In fairness to Sloan, he has been somewhat limited by the numerous injuries and illnesses that have left the roster depleted all season. Ironically, it was injury and illness that basically forced Sloan into what I believe is the most effective starting lineup for the Jazz, which I’ll outline in a minute.

Since I know Sloan values my opinion, I’ve created a set of basic rules for him to use when determining his lineup combinations. They are as follows:

Rule #1 – Always have at least one shot blocker and one 3-point shooter on the floor at all times
Rule #2 – Avoid playing Boozer and Okur at the same time whenever possible
Rule #2A – When Booz and Memo do play together, Kirilenko should also be on the floor to ensure at least one shot blocker in the frontcourt
Rule #3 – Avoid playing Kirilenko and Brewer at the same time
Rule #3A – If AK and Brew must play together, Memo should also be on the court to ensure at least one 3-point shooter.

In my humble opinion, the best starting lineup for the Jazz right now is Williams (PG), Matthews (SG), Brewer (SF), Boozer (PF), and Fesenko (C), leaving Maynor (PG), Miles (SG), Kirilenko (SF), Millsap (PF) and Okur (C) coming off the bench. Minutes would be distributed as follows:

PG – Williams (38), Maynor (10)
SG – Matthews (24), Miles (24)
SF – Brewer (24), Kirilenko (24)
PF – Boozer (24), Millsap (24)
C – Fesenko (12), Okur (26), Boozer (10)

This distribution would severely limit the amount of time either of the aforementioned problem combos would need to be on the floor together. Minutes at the wing positions would essentially be up for grabs depending on matchups and who was playing better on a given night.

Sloan will have some tough choices to make when Korver and Price get healthy again, leaving a huge logjam in the backcourt. This is one reason why exploring a trade is still the best option. I’ll share my thoughts on that soon.

Blog Format Change

2009-12-02T12:27:00.000-08:00

December 2, 2009 -
With apologies to my loyal readers (I really appreciate both of you), I'm going to make a format change to my blog. While I had intended to provide a breif recap after each Jazz game, I just haven't been able to keep up. With my work and family schedule, I rarely get to watch the games live. Although my DVR (unquestionably one of the greatest inventions in the history of mankind) still makes it possible for me catch nearly every game, sometimes I don't watch them until a day or two after the fact. At that point, a game recap feels pretty dated.

With family in town for Thanksgiving, I've gotten way behind. Rather than trying to play catch up, I'm going to discontinue the regular game recaps. That will give me more time and flexibility to share my brilliant insight on topics and trends not specific to individual games. I may still do an occasional recap when I get the chance to watch a live game, but they will be the exception rather than the rule.

Thanks for understanding, and please keep the comments coming (or start them, as the case may be...)

Finally!

2009-11-20T22:09:00.000-08:00

November 20, 2009 -
For the first time in the 21st century, the Jazz actually won a game in San Antonio. I don’t even care that Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker both missed the game to injury. There is no asterisk on this game. It’s not like the Jazz weren’t depleted as well. Although Williams was back with the team (he returned Wednesday against the Raptors), Utah was without Mehmet Okur in addition to the already injured list of Korver, Miles, Price, and Harpring. Regardless, the Jazz won 90-83 to end a ten-year drought. Utah also beat Toronto on Wednesday, meaning the Jazz now have their first winning streak of the season.

Game ball goes to: Deron Williams. He returned without missing a beat, averaging 20.5 points (16 of 31 shooting including 5 of 8 from behind the arc), 9.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 1 steal. As good as Maynor has been, it was still nice to have DWill back.

Stat of the game(s): The Jazz had lost 23 consecutive games in San Antonio prior to Thursday’s win. Their last victory came on February 28, 1999.

Highlight: Despite struggling through the first 3 quarters, Carlos Boozer came alive in the 4th period, scoring a number of key baskets down the stretch to help the Jazz hold off the Spurs.

Lowlight: Mehmet Okur missed both games with flu-like symptoms. The Jazz just can’t get healthy.

Other items of note:
- Utah’s starting lineup the last time they won in San Antonio featured John Stockton, Karl Malone, Jeff Hornacek, Bryon Russell, and Greg Ostertag.

- Paul Millsap continued his recent strong play. He was a key factor in the victory against the Spurs, scoring 20 points off the bench on 8 of 12 shooting.

- Eric Maynor had another outstanding game against Toronto and played the entire 4th quarter paired in the backcourt with Williams. The experiment worked well, as the Jazz outscored the Raptors 26-16 in the period to put the game away. Maynor finished with 15 points and 6 assists in 23 minutes.

- The Jazz seem to have gotten past their early problem with 4th quarter meltdowns. They have done a nice job closing out the past 4 games, either by protecting / extending a lead (Philly, Toronto, San Antonio) or closing a gap to make a game competitive (Cleveland).

- Utah only dressed 9 players again against Toronto and San Antonio, making 4 consecutive games with less than 10 players available.

The Rookie Steps Up

2009-11-15T20:56:00.000-08:00

November 15, 2009 -
With Deron Williams away from the team to deal with a family medical issue, these two back-to-back games could have been extremely ugly. Compound Williams’ absence with the fact that Ronnie Price is injured, and the Jazz are only left with one available point guard—a rookie who had exactly 23 minutes of NBA experience heading into Friday night’s game.

Gotta hand it to Eric Maynor. He absolutely stepped up when his team needed him. I’m amazed at the poise and confidence he showed. He still has a lot to learn, but the kid has serious potential. We may have gotten a steal with the 19th pick.

Game ball goes to: Eric Maynor (as if there was any doubt after that lead in). The rookie formally announced his arrival on the NBA scene with 13 points and 11 assists in his first career start to help the Jazz beat the 76ers. He then dropped 24 points the following night at Cleveland in a narrow loss to the Cavs.

Stat of the game(s): The Jazz made 44 of 50 (88%) free throws over the two-game stretch. If only they could keep that up all season...

Highlight: Carlos Boozer seems to have found his game. He averaged 24.5 points (on 63% shooting), 12 rebounds, and 2 steals over the last two.

Lowlight: Despite losing in Cleveland, there wasn’t much to complain about during these two games. No one played particularly poorly, especially given the circumstances (i.e. back-to-back games on the road missing multiple key players)

Other items of note:
- Paul Millsap seems to have found his groove along with Boozer. He averaged 13 points (on 59% shooting), 5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks in 28 minutes off the bench. The power forward position is suddenly solid again.

- Wes Matthews continues to be somewhat of a savior. Considering he probably wouldn’t have made the roster had Miles and Korver not been injured, Matthews is proving he belongs in this league. He currently leads the Jazz in 3-pt shooting at 47% (7 of 15) and averaged 14.5 points in 36 minutes over the 76ers and Cavs games.

- The Jazz only dressed 9 players at Philly and Cleveland. Harpring, Korver, Miles, and Price are still out with injuries, while Williams missed for personal reasons.

Jazz Lose Ugly to Celtics

2009-11-12T21:24:00.000-08:00

November 12, 2009 -
The nice thing about being a blogger rather than a beat writer is that I can actually get disgusted and walk away. I don’t have to keep watching the game when it’s not worth watching. And that’s exactly what I did on Wednesday. I just couldn’t endure the ugliness any further after the Jazz allowed a manageable 10-point halftime deficit balloon to 19 less than 4 minutes into the 3rd quarter. Things didn't improve after I stopped watching, as the Jazz eventually lost 105-86.

The only real positive I take away from this game is that Sloan yanked Boozer early in the 1st and 3rd quarters when his pathetic defense became unbearable. I hope this signals Sloan’s awakening to the fact that his lineup combinations are not working. Boozer and Okur should never be on the court together for any significant stretch.

Game ball goes to: Deron Williams. He didn’t have a great game, but I give him props for just being out there, playing through painful back and calf injuries. (Plus no one else did much to deserve it.)

Stat of the game: Utah shot 0 for 10 from the 3-point line. Have I mentioned that they miss Korver and Miles?

Highlight: Kosta Koufos scored 6 points on 3 of 3 shooting and grabbed 4 rebounds in only 6 minutes of play. Of course this all happened in garbage time against the Celtics’ bench players, but in a game like this you take what you can get.

Lowlight: Not only was Boozer’s defense horrendous, the rest of his game was rather anemic as well. He only put up 10 points and 2 rebounds in 27 minutes. He also had 4 turnovers and 4 fouls.

Other items of note:
- Once again, the Jazz faced a considerable amount of zone defense. Once again, they failed to execute well against it.

- Though he didn’t have a great scoring night (9 points on 3 of 8 shooting), Paul Millsap was much more effective than Boozer. He grabbed 13 rebounds in 23 minutes, and he played much better defense.

- This game was the only one of Utah’s 5 losses so far in which they were essentially dominated from start to finish. The Jazz never led in the game.

- I mentioned earlier that I hope Sloan is getting the message on his lineup combinations and substitution patterns. I'll post my suggestions later.

Zoned Out

2009-11-10T20:57:00.000-08:00

November 10, 2009 -
Word has officially gotten out. The Jazz can’t play against a zone. Oh, and there’s no such thing as a safe lead for them. At least they managed to hang on for the victory this time, albeit just barely.

The Jazz led by as much as 21 points early in the 3rd quarter and held a 14-point advantage heading into the 4th, but once again blew their seemingly safe margin and almost choked away the game. New York rookie, Toney Douglas, missed a shot at the buzzer that would have forced overtime, and the Jazz held on to win 95-93.

Game ball goes to: Andrei Kirilenko. His 5 3-pointers were the only thing that kept the Jazz alive against the Knicks’ zone. If he doesn’t hit those shots, the Jazz lose. Andrei finished the game with 23 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, and a block.

Stat of the game: Utah had 19 turnovers against New York but only gave up 16 points as a result of those. The Knicks only coughed up 10 turnovers, but the Jazz managed to convert those into 16 points.

Highlight: Carlos Boozer had another nice outing, scoring 23 points on 10 of 14 shooting, and grabbing 14 rebounds. If he can keep doing this, he may actually develop some trade value…

Lowlight: Deron Williams and Ronnie Price were both injured in the game. Price sprained his big toe in the 2nd quarter and did not return. Williams hurt his back in the 2nd quarter and said he would have sat out had Price not already been injured. Deron was clearly in pain and only made 2 of 10 shots for 5 points. He did, however, dish out a season-high 16 assists. I hope he can play on Wednesday in Boston.

Other items of note:
- The Knicks played a zone defensealmost exclusively beginning part way through the 1st quarter. The Jazz shot 67% (8 of 12) prior to the zone, but only shot 42% from that point on. If I’m an opposing coach, I would play little else until the Jazz prove they can handle. So far, all they’ve managed to prove it something most of us already knew: this team desperately needs more shooters.

- Paul Millsap’s struggles continued, as he only managed 4 points on 1 of 5 shooting in 24 minutes of play. I'm not exactly sure what's wrong with Sap. Tought to say how much Boozer's unexpected presence is effecting him. I just hope he snaps out of it soon.

- Despite the frustration of another blown lead, this win was particularly sweet. My two favorite teams this season are the Jazz and whoever is playing the Knicks. Every New York loss brings the Jazz one step closer to a high lottery pick in next summer’s draft!

A Tale of Two Teams

2009-11-09T21:47:00.000-08:00

November 9, 2009 -
It’s not often that you would consider the 5th game of an 82-game season as a “must win.” But that’s exactly how I felt about Thursday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs. After back-to-back embarrassing losses to Houston and Dallas, the Jazz desperately needed to defend their home court.

This was the Jazz team I expected to see this season. They played hard, executed well, played tough-nosed team defense, and basically dominated the Spurs for four quarters, winning 113-99. Boozer had a breakout performance with 27 points and 14 rebounds, and the team seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. This was the turning point.

Well, at least until the next game…

Just when it seemed they might finally be on track, the Jazz turned around and lost to the lowly Sacramento Kings on Saturday night. In Utah. At least it wasn’t another 4th quarter meltdown. This time they started the process a lot earlier. The Jazz eventually lost 104-99, but it took a furious 4th quarter comeback to make it that close.

Game ball goes to: Deron Williams. He was the only player to show up strong for both games and did everything in his power to bring the Jazz back from a 17-point deficit in the 4th quarter against Sacramento. DWill averaged 28 points and 12 assists 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, over the two games.

Stat of the Game(s): The Jazz continue to lose the battle of the 3-point line. Against the Spurs, Utah only made 1 of 7 while the Spurs made 6 of 16. Against Sacramento, the Jazz sank 5 of 15 but allowed the Kings to make 11 of 19.

Highlight: For the first time this season, the Jazz played a full 48-minutes and outscored the Spurs in each quarter (well, technically they tied in the 2nd). The team showed what it’s capable of when everyone plays to their potential.

Lowlight: After building an 11-point lead at the end of the 1st period, the Jazz were outscored 66-38 over the 2nd and 3rd quarters by the Sacramento Kings – the team with the worst record in the NBA last season, who was missing its leading scorer. And this happened in Utah.

Other items of note:
- The Jazz continue to be a Jekyll-and-Hyde team, making it tough to know which personality will show up any given game. Seeing what they did against the Spurs just made the loss to the Kings even more frustrating.

- Sacramento went on a 26-2 run in the 3rd quarter against. I don’t ever remember the Jazz being dominated so soundly in their own arena. Hard to believe it happened against the Kings of all teams. The Jazz seem to be useless against a zone defense without Korver and Miles. Brewer and Kirilenko on the wings just won’t get it done.

- With Millsap continuing to disappoint, Wes Matthews has been the only silver lining on the Jazz bench. The undrafted rookie scored 23 points on 9 of 13 shooting and is playing with confidence.

Consecutive 4th Quarter Meltdowns

2009-11-04T21:06:00.000-08:00

November 4, 2009 -
I keep reminding myself that we’re only 4 games into an 82-game season, and there’s still PLENTY of time for the Jazz to figure things out. Still, watching them completely fall apart in the 4th quarter of consecutive games is disheartening to say the least.

With Utah trailing Houston by only 3 points at the end of the 3rd period, the Rockets outscored the Jazz 34-20 in the 4th to win easily, 113-96 on Monday night in Utah. On Tuesday, the Jazz took a seemingly safe 15-point lead into the 4th quarter in Dallas. They then proceeded to give up 29 points in the final quarter… to Dirk Nowitzki alone! As a team, the Mavericks outscored the Jazz 44-18 in the 4th to win 96-85.

Game ball goes to: No one. Seriously. Yes, this is me taking my ball and going home.

Stat of the game(s): The Jazz have now lost 3 of their first 4 games. In those 3 losses, they have been outscored in the 4th quarter by a combined total of 110-63. Ironically, the Jazz outscored their opponents by a combined 223-213 through the first 3 quarters of those games.

Highlight: Andrei Kirilenko averaged 15 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 2.5 steals in the games against Houston and Dallas. While he still seems out of sorts at times on offense, it’s good to see him putting up defensive numbers again.

Lowlight: Tough to choose between giving up 34 4th-quarter points and losing at home to a Rockets team that is playing without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, or blowing a 16-point 4th quarter lead in Dallas and allowing a single player to outscore your entire team by 9 points in that same period. Let's call them equally pathetic.

Other items of note:
- Utah’s interior defense is atrocious when Boozer and Okur are on the floor together. Either one of the two needs to be traded, or Sloan needs to change his substitution patterns. I’m honestly not sure which of those two scenarios is more likely.

- Heading into the season, power forward was the last position on the team I was concerned about. Unfortunately Boozer and Millsap have both been terrible. Boozer is shooting 35% from the field and has only scored more than 12 points once in the first 4 games. Millsap looked good in the first 2 games but was awful in the last 2, averaging 3.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5 fouls in 23 minutes. You would expect a little more from a PF combo making over $20M this season.

- The Jazz desperately miss the outside shooting of Kyle Korver and CJ Miles. When your center is the only player who can stretch the defense, you have issues.

- Deron Williams has been over dribbling and forcing a lot of shots the last couple of games. I’m sure this is partly due to the fact that he doesn’t have many other reliable scoring options. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of trust or chemistry on this team right now, offensively or defensively.

Jazz Win Home Opener 111-98

2009-11-01T20:45:00.000-08:00

November 1, 2009 –
I’m a little late getting this one posted (apologies to all three of my loyal readers), but the Jazz beat the Clippers 111-98 in their home opener on Friday. Utah used a 15-0 run at the beginning of the 4th quarter to put what had been a close game out of reach. It was eerily similar to what the Nuggets did to the Jazz last Wednesday, but this time the Jazz were the ones celebrating.

Game ball goes to: Paul Millsap. He scored 23 points on 9 of 12 shooting from the field and 5 for 5 from the free throw line in only 25 minutes. He also had 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, and a steal. Millsap’s offensive game seems more refined this season, and he is showing a nice shooting touch that I don’t remember seeing in previous years.

Stat of the game: The Jazz out rebounded the Clippers 48 to 35.

Highlight: Ronnie Brewer had a great all-around game and narrowly missed out on the coveted game-ball honors. He scored 17 points on 8 of 11 shooting. He also had 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal.

Lowlight: He looked good in preseason, but Eric Maynor has struggled in his first two regular season games. Against the Clippers, he had 2 turnovers and a foul in only 5 minutes of play. He did, however, score his first NBA points by sinking a pair of free throws.

Other items of note:
- Mehmet Okur sat out with a mild knee and ankle sprain sustained early in the Denver game. Kyrylo Fesenko started in his place and again looked good in limited minutes, scoring 10 points on 5 of 6 shooting. Fess and Kosta Koufos had a combined 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 33 minutes of play.

- Carlos Boozer bounced back from his abysmal performance against the Nuggets with a solid performance. He scored 20 points (9 of 22 shooting) to go with 12 rebounds, 7 assists, and a steal.

- Deron Williams narrowly missed another double-double, scoring 21 points and dishing out 9 assists.

- Ronnie Price had a sweet follow-up dunk off of a missed Williams jumpshot in the 4th quarter that brought the crowd to their feet.

- With Korver, Miles, Harpring, and Memo all out with injuries, he Jazz only dressed 10 players for the game.

- The Mormon Tabernacle Choir sang the pre-game National Anthem.

Jazz Fall to Nuggets in Season Opener

2009-10-29T22:01:00.000-07:00

October 24, 2009 -
The Jazz hung tough for 3 quarters but fell apart in the 4th, losing in Denver 114-105 to open the 2009-10 regular season. (Have I ever mentioned that I hate the Nuggets?)

Game ball goes to: Deron Williams. He scored 28 points on 9 of 15 shooting, including 2 of 3 from behind the arc and 8 for 8 from the free throw line. He also dished out 13 assists, grabbed 3 rebounds, and had 1 steal. His otherwise outstanding performance was somewhat marred by 5 turnovers and an ill-advised foul on Chauncey Billups’ 3-point attempt at the end of the 3rd quarter. Still, he was primary reason this game was even close.

Stat of the game: This was Jerry Sloan's 100th game coached against the Denver Nuggets. That’s well more than an entire season’s worth of games against one team!

Highlight: Kyrylo Fesenko looked great in 11 minutes, hitting all 3 of his shot attempts, grabbing 2 rebounds, and playing solid defense. Though he didn’t record a block, he definitely altered a few shots.

Lowlight: Although he had a hot hand during the preseason, Carlos Boozer was ice cold in Denver. He shot a dismal 3 for 14 from the field against the Nuggets and looked tentative most of the evening. Boozer was clearly bothered by the size and athleticism of Denver’s frontcourt, as most of his shots were high-arc fade-away jumpers.

Other items of note:
- Mehmet Okur was injured 24 seconds into the game trying to take a charge from Nene. After hurling a few jumbled expletives at the TV, I began to wonder what the Jazz had done to offend the injury gods. Fortunately Memo hobbled back out a few minutes later and went on to score 13 points in 31 minutes. He has mild knee and ankle sprains and is listed as questionable for Friday's home opener against the Clippers.

- Andrei Kirilenko played a nice game and was active on both ends of the court. He had 16 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 block. The Jazz need this kind of effort from him consistently for them to be successful this season.

- Jazz rookie Eric Maynor was outclassed by Denver rookie Ty Lawson, who got to the hoop easily and scored 7 quick points during critical stretch to start the 4th quarter with Deron Williams on the bench.

- This was the best I’ve ever seen Carmelo Anthony look. As much as I can’t stand him, he is turning into a superstar.

- Utah’s two largest weaknesses were clearly exposed by Denver in this game: outside shooting and interior defense. The Nuggets took it to the hoop repeatedly against Okur, Boozer, and Millsap, who could do little to stop them. On the other end, Denver was contesting every Utah shot in the paint. I was actually surprised when I read the box score and saw the Nuggets only had 6 blocks. It felt more like 16.

Utah Jazz Season Preview 2009-10

2009-10-27T22:22:00.000-07:00

October 27, 2009 -
With the Jazz set to open their season tomorrow night in Denver, it's time to publish my official 2009-10 preview. I haven't been this unsure about how the Jazz would perform since 2003-04, the year after Stockton retired and Malone left to chase that elusive title with the hated Lakers.

The range of possibilities is wide this season, but I'll gaze into the crystal ball as best I can. Here are my projections for the team, as well as individual players:

2008-09 Record: 48-34 (3rd in Northwest Division; 8th in Western Conference; Lost in 1st round of playoffs)

2008-09 Statistical Leaders:
Points: Deron Williams (19.4)
Rebounds: Carlos Boozer (10.4)
Assists: Deron Williams (10.7)
Steals: Ronnie Brewer (1.7)
Blocks: Andrei Kirilenko (1.1)
FG%: Paul Millsap (53.4%)
3Pt%: Mehmet Okur (44.6%)
FT%: Kyle Korver (88.2%)

Key Additions: Eric Maynor, Wes Matthews
Key Subtractions: Brevin Knight, Jarron Collins
(Obviously I use the word “key” rather loosely.)

Roster/Depth Chart
PG – Deron Williams, Ronnie Price, Eric Maynor
SG – Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Wes Matthews
SF – CJ Miles, Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring
PF – Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap
C – Mehmet Okur, Kosta Koufos, Kyrylo Fesenko

Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup:
Deron Williams (PG), Ronnie Brewer (SG), Andrei Kirilenko (SF), Carlos Boozer (PF), Mehmet Okur (C)

Strengths
Point guard play – Deron is a budding superstar and one of the top-2 players in the league at his position. He has improved each season, and this one should be no exception. With Deron’s leadership and clear competitive drive, the Jazz have an ideal floor general.

Depth – Utah has one of the deepest rosters in the league, with a second unit capable of holding its own against many starting squads. This can prove highly valuable over an 82-game season.

Balance – At least 8 players on this theam are capable of dropping 20 points on any given night. At least 4 are capable of dropping 30. The Jazz are not dependent on a single superstar for the bulk of their scoring, which makes them more difficult to defend.

Flexibility – With such a deep, versatile lineup, Sloan has the option to exploit matchups without sacrificing talent. Most everyone on the team can play two and in some cases three different positions.

Weaknesses
Outside shooting – Utah was one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams last season. Four of the top six players based on minutes played per game (Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko, and Brewer) are not consistent deep threats. Okur was the only player on the team to shoot over 40% from behind the arc. When your center is your best shooter, you have to worry a little bit.

Wing play – The Jazz lack a consistent scoring threat from the wing positions to take pressure off Williams and the post players. Brewer, Kirilenko, Korver, and Miles can all score effectively in spurts, but none can be counted on to consistently provide 15+ points per game or to create their own shots.

Interior defense – With Boozer and Okur together in the starting lineup, Utah lacks a shot-blocking presence in the frontcourt. This has been painfully apparent over the past couple of seasons, as opposing teams regularly take it to the hole without fear.

Toughness – Not an attribute you would expect to be missing on a Jerry Sloan-coached team, but the Jazz failed to show much toughness last season. This was evidenced by their dismal record on the road and in the second game of back to backs. Losing Harpring to injury (and possibly retirement) will not help in that category.

Wildcards
Health – The Jazz missed 149 man games to injury or illness last season. Not a single person on the roster played in all 82 games, and all of the top guys except Brewer missed significant action: Boozer (45 games), Kirilenko (15), Williams (14), Okur (10), Millsap (6). Simply keeping the team healthy should result in a higher win total than last season, but they are already off to a bad start. CJ Miles and Kyle Korver were both injured in the preseason, requiring surgery that will keep them out until at least December. Okur, Brewer, and Price also missed preseason games due to injury.

Centers – Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko are both young, intriguing big men with the physical tools necessary to become a serious presence in the post. Will either begin to realize that potential this season? If one of both can step up and become that enforcer the Jazz have been missing, it could make a huge difference.

Boozer – No one (himself included) expected Carlos Boozer to be in a Jazz uniform on opening day. But here he is. Boozer is in a contract year and will have every incentive to play his heart out this season. The question is, what kind of a team player will he be?

Worst-Case Scenario – On paper, this is essentially the same team that made the playoffs last season by the skin of its teeth, and then barely put up a fight against the Lakers in the first round. Particularly with some of the improvements to other Western Conference teams, it’s not that difficult to imagine the Jazz landing in the lottery.

Best-Case Scenario – This team actually has the talent to win the West and contend for a title. When healthy and playing on the same page, the Jazz can compete with anyone in the league. Unfortunately neither of those two things happened much last season. If all the pieces fall into place, Utah will give the Lakers and Spurs a run for their money. At very least, they will be a team no one wants to meet in the playoffs.

Predictions – The Jazz will improve over last season’s disappointing finish. They will continue to have one of the most efficient offenses in the league but will also continue to struggle stopping good teams down the stretch of close games. That said, the interior defense will be better than last season due in part to Boozer’s newly found (and contract-motivated) commitment.

Deron Williams will have a monster year and earn his first all-star invitation, increasing his scoring and assists totals, and improving his shooting percentage. The DWill vs. CP3 debate will rage on, as Deron closes the statistical gap and leads his team to a better record.

Ronnie Brewer will earn a contract extension with his improved defense and limited-but-efficient offensive game. He will play heavy minutes in the first part of the season while Miles and Korver rehab their injuries. His lack of shooting will hurt the Jazz in the short term (particularly when he’s on the court with Kirilenko), as teams will pack the paint to stop Boozer and Millsap.

Eric Maynor greatly exceeded expectations in the preseason and will see solid minutes backing up Williams, particularly with Price likely logging some time at SG. Maynor’s lack of strength will be a liability against bigger guards, but he has shown he can play at this level.

Mehmet Okur will increase his 3-point attempts to compensate for the lack of other outside shooters. He will miss a handful of games throughout the season with back problems but will prove an integral part of the team's success.

Paul Millsap will make the Jazz look smart for matching his contract offer this summer. His stats will be limited by Boozer’s continued presence (though Sloan will likely find him some minutes at SF) but his contribution will go beyond the box score.

Carlos Boozer will be the consummate professional and will post career numbers. He hurt his brand so badly over the summer that he will be in damage-control mode all year. The crystal ball is a little murky, but I think I see a different colored uniform in February...

CJ Miles was poised for a breakout year before tearing a tendon in his shooting hand. He likely won’t be back in the lineup until sometime in December, and it may be the all-star break by the time he is back to form. He will have some outstanding games but won’t achieve the consistency we’ve all been craving from him.

Kyle Korver finally got his wrist healthy before injuring his knee. Like CJ, he will miss the first part of the season and may not be back until January. When he does come back, however, he will likely return to form relatively quickly. His shooting off the bench will be key down the stretch.

Kosta Koufos didn’t show the improvement I had hoped to see from him during the preseason. He will likely spend some time in Orem but will still see some minutes with the Jazz. Kouf is a bright guy and a hard worker, so I expect him to earn more time as the season progresses. 2010-11 will be his breakout year.

Kyrylo Fesenko seems to be getting better, just not as quickly as I would like. Since he’s not eligible for Flash duty anymore, he will see his share of DNP-CDs unless the opposing team has a big, legitimate center. Unfortunately the light won't come on quickly enough for him, and this will be his last season with the team.

Andrei Kirilenko bulked up significantly during the offseason. This should make him more durable over the course of the season but won’t bring back the all-star who disappeared a few ago. AK will have the occasional brilliant game (i.e. 18 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 3 steals) but won’t do it consistently.

Ronnie Price will take full advantage of his additional minutes, providing energy and hustle off the bench. Sloan admitted his error in not playing Price enough last year and won’t duplicate the mistake. While Maynor may actually beat him out for backup PG by the end of the season, Ronnie will remain in the rotation.

Jerry Sloan will once again be snubbed for coach of the year despite overcoming the offseason Boozer drama to exceed expectations in leading his team to one of the top records in the conference.

Projected 2009-10 Record: 54-28
(2nd in Northwest Division, 4th in Western Conference, lose to Lakers in Western Conference Semifinals)

The Jazz are likely still a few pieces away from being a true title contender. This season will be a step in the right direction, but they won't quite get there.

Jazz Beat Kings to Finish Preseason

2009-10-24T22:15:00.000-07:00

October 24, 2009 –
The Utah Jazz closed out their preseason Friday night, beating the Sacramento Kings 95-85. The Jazz outscored the Kings 28-14 in the second quarter and never relinquished the lead.

Game ball goes to: Paul Millsap. Following a dreadful performance in Tuesday’s game against Portland, Sap scored 19 points on 9 of 16 shooting. He also had 7 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block in 33 minutes of play.

Stat of the game: Utah had 12 steals, with 7 Jazz players recording at least one.

Highlight: Eric Maynor had another solid outing and finally seemed to find his shooting stroke. He had 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting including 2 for 2 from behind the arc. Maynor also had 2 assists, 2 rebounds, and his usual 2 steals. (If you’ve been following my blog, you’ll know that Maynor recorded exactly 2 steals in all but 1 of Utah’s 8 preseason games.)

Lowlight: The Jazz were without their entire depth chart at shooting guard. Ronnie Brewer sat out with back spasms, while Kyle Korver (knee), Ronnie Price (hamstring), and CJ Miles (thumb surgery) were all still out with their respective injuries. While Brewer (and possibly Price) should be back for the regular season opener, Korver will apparently require surgery, leaving the Jazz extremely thin at the wing positions to start the season.

Other items of note:
- Deron Williams posted his first double-double of the preseason with 19 points and 11 assists.
- Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko both continued to struggle with fouls. Koufos fouled out in 22 minutes, while Fess was whistled for 5 in only 14 minutes. Mehmet Okur also had 4 fouls in 17 minutes, giving the Jazz 15 for the center position alone. Looks like the replacement refs were a little whistle happy in the post.
- Sacramneto rookie, Tyreke Evans, scored 21 points for the Kings. He also had 7 turnovers.
- The Jazz finished the postseason with a 6-2 record. They open the regular season on Wednesday at Denver.

Jazz Beat Blazers…Again

2009-10-21T22:51:00.000-07:00

October 21, 2009 –
For the second time in less than a week, the Jazz beat the Portland Trail Blazers with relative ease. Utah built an 11 point lead in the first quarter and never looked back, cruising to a 108-97 victory. The Jazz improved their record to 5-2 in the preseason.

Game ball goes to: Deron Williams. He scored 27 points on 8 of 12 shooting from the field, along with 9 of 10 from the free throw line. He only had 3 assists but obviously didn’t need more. Once again, Deron looked like the best player on the court.

Stat of the game: Utah was outrebounded by Portland (31-33), had fewer assists (15-18) and more turnovers (22-21), yet still managed to win easily. The Jazz shot 53% from the field while holding the Blazers to 41%.

Highlight: Kyrylo Fesenko had 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks in only 13 minutes. (If only he hadn’t committed 4 turnovers and fouled out during those same 13 minutes…)

Lowlight: Paul Millsap only scored 3 points on 0 of 6 shooting and fouled out in only 21 minutes of play. Not exactly the kind of performance to make Portland agonize over losing out on him this summer.

Other items of note:
- Carlos Boozer kept his hot hand, hitting 8 of 10 from the field. Booz has averaged 72% shooting over the past 3 games.

- Eric Maynor finally broke his streak of recording exactly two steals in each preseason game. He only had one on Tuesday.

- Ronnie Brewer continued to look impressive, putting in another solid if not spectacular performance on Tuesday. He scored 16 points on 6 of 8 shooting. He also had 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and a block.

- Mehmet Okur returned to the lineup after sitting out Sunday’s game with a sore back. He only scored 5 points on 1 of 6 shooting. Kyle Korver and Ronnie Price are still out. No word yet as to whether or not they will play on Friday.

Jazz Lose to Clips Saturday, Beat Bobcats Sunday

2009-10-19T22:15:00.001-07:00

October 19, 2009 -
It’s still preseason, so I’m going to be lazy and combine the recaps of Utah's two games over the weekend versus the Clippers and Bobcats. The Jazz lost to LA 103-96 on Saturday but then bounced back to beat Charlotte 110-103 the following night.

Game ball goes to: Carlos Boozer. He scored 42 points in only 45 minutes between the two games, shooting a combined 18 for 26 (69%) from the field. Boozer also looked much more active on defense than in previous years. He seems to be solidifying his starter status at PF.

Stat of the game(s): Eric Maynor continued a rather interesting streak by nabbing two steals against both the Clippers and the Bobcats. The rookie has recorded exactly two steals in each of Utah’s six preseason games thus far.

Highlight: Kirilenko returned from a two-game absence on Sunday, shaking off jetlag to post his best outing of the preseason with 18 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, a block and a steal.

Lowlight: The Jazz still can’t stay healthy. In addition to CJ Miles who will be out at least six weeks, Mehmet Okur (back), Kyle Korver (knee), and Ronnie Price (hamstring) all missed Sunday’s game with minor injuries.

Other items of note:
- Koufos and Fesenko both logged the most minutes they had seen all preseason, and both responded with their best games thus far. The pair has been relatively disappointing up to this point. The Jazz really need one or both of them to step up this season.

- Maynor continues to struggle with his shot (1 for 6 Saturday and 3 for 11 Sunday), but the rest of his game is definitely far ahead of what I expected. Looks like he will legitimately challenge Price for the backup PG role.

- Even though his preseason numbers haven’t been gaudy, Deron Williams routinely looks like the best player on the court.

Deron and Dwight

2009-10-18T22:49:00.000-07:00

October 18, 2009 -
OK, not really Dwight (from The Office), but Rainn Wilson, the actor who plays him. The two star together in a commercial for the NBA on TNT in which Deron is a passenger in Rainn's taxi cab. The whole bit is pretty entertaining, but Rainn (who is sporting a sweet mullet) has one classic line that absolutely cracked me up:

"Hey, you're from Utah. Great state. I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time."

Haven't we all.

Rainn has apparently filmed a whole series of these taxi commercials with various NBA stars. While I'm admittedly biased, I like Deron's the best. Check out the video below:

Maynor Shines in Jazz Victory Over Blazers

2009-10-16T23:20:00.001-07:00

October 16, 2009 -
The Utah Jazz beat the Portland Trail Blazers 99-96 on Thursday evening in Salt Lake City. This game wasn’t on TV, so I can’t make any personal observations. But based on the box score and recaps I read from some fans who watched the game in person (thanks Redneck, Maria, and Pater), here is my second-hand summary:

Game ball goes to: Eric Maynor. The rookie is starting to make me look bad for doubting the wisdom of drafting him. He easily had the best game of his short pro career with 15 points, 5 assists, and 2 steals in 23 minutes off the bench.

Stat of the game: Deron Williams had more rebounds (7) than three Jazz centers combined (6): Mehmet Okur (2), Kosta Koufos (2), Kyrylo Fesenko (2)

Highlight: Williams left the huddle during a timeout to launch t-shirts into the crowd using a giant slingshot.

Lowlight: Fesenko had 0 points, 4 fouls, and 3 turnovers in 11 minutes. In fairness, he did also block 2 shots.

Other items of note:
- Ronnie Price started at SG for the Jazz with Miles, Korver, and Kirilenko all out of the lineup. He had 10 points, 2 assists, and 1 block in 23 minutes.

- Long-time Jazzman, Jarron Collins, played for the Blazers. It must have been odd to see him in the opposing uniform. Even more odd, Collins recorded a blocked shot – something he rarely did while playing for Utah.

- The Jazz managed to win despite being outrebounded (36-47), committing more turnovers (16-15) and fouls (32-25), and dishing out fewer assists (20-24).

Kirilenko to Miss Two Preseason Games

2009-10-15T17:37:00.000-07:00

October 15, 2009 -
Fortunately he’s not injured. Aside from Deron Williams going down, the last thing the Jazz can afford right now is an injury to another wing player. With CJ Miles recovering from thumb surgery, Kyle Korver nursing a hurt knee, and Matt Harpring having likely played his last NBA game, the Jazz could ill afford to lose Kirilenko as well. No, Andrei is healthy but will be missing the next two games traveling to Russia for “personal reasons.” He is scheduled to return in time for Sunday’s game in Los Angeles.

Although details of AK’s absence have not been officially disclosed, a Russian poster on the JazzHoops message board said the Kirilenkos are in the process of adopting a child. In his words, “They are in adopting process and it is very complicating and long process. Both parents must be present in all interviews.”

If this is indeed the reason for his trip, then congrats to Andrei. I just hope his wife doesn’t make him get up in the middle of the night to feed the kid on game days.

Jazz Cruise Past Real Madrid

2009-10-11T23:05:00.000-07:00

October 11, 2009 -
Although the game was much closer than it should have been through the first quarter, the Jazz eventually proved too much for host Real Madrid on Thursday (yes, I’m a little late getting this posted), cruising to an easy 109-87 victory.

Game Ball Goes to: Paul Millsap. The clear MVP of the European trip, Sap scored 20 points on 9 of 10 shooting in only 22 minutes. He also had 3 boards, 2 steals, and a block. He’s making Utah look very smart for matching his contract offer from Portland this summer.

Stat of the Game: The Jazz had 8 turnovers in the 1st quarter and finished with 23 for the game.

Highlight: Eric Maynor hit a nice pull-up 3-pointer to beat the first-half buzzer.

Lowlight: Goran Suton had more combined turnovers and fouls (5) than points and rebounds (4). Odds of his making the roster are pretty slim.

Other items of note:
- Deron Williams had another solid if not spectacular outing. He just looks to be in a different league than his competition (although in this game, I guess he technically was.) I expect a monster year from him.

- Maynor is a playmaker. His shot still isn’t falling, but he had 7 assists and 2 steals in 24 minutes (Ronnie Price sat out with a minor injury). A couple of his assists were gorgeous. I’m feeling pretty good about the point guard position right now.

- Kyle Korver played for the first time this season, coming back from a minor knee sprain sustained in training camp. He didn’t do much, but it was good to see him out there.

- Daryl Dawkins (aka Chocolate Thunder) was in the stands, clad in a marvelously tacky yellow and black striped suit. The NBA TV announcers were cracking up.

- Boozer actually looked pretty good defensively, recording 3 steals in only 20 minutes. Too bad, because this game would have been the perfect opportunity to comment on his penchant for matador-style defense.

Jazz Lose to Bulls at Buzzer in London

2009-10-07T21:18:00.000-07:00

October 7, 2009 -
Maybe my standards are low since I haven’t seen an NBA game for a few months, but this was the most exciting exhibition game I ever remember watching. The fans in London were treated to a great show. In a back-and-forth contest that remained relatively close throughout, Chicago hit a shot at the buzzer to beat Utah 102-101, handing the Jazz their first loss of the preseason.

I won’t recap the game, but here are a few of my observations:

- The NBA TV announcers were terrible. They mentioned at least seven or eight times throughout the game that the Bulls were playing without Derrick Rose, John Salmons, and Tyrus Thomas. Just so happened that the Jazz were playing without CJ Miles, Kyle Korver, Matt Harpring, and Kyrolo Fesenko, but at the beginning of the game the announcers stated that the Jazz were essentially at full strength. It was actually funny, because the ticker on the bottom of the screen was mentioning CJ Miles’ finger injury and pending surgery right about the time they made the "full strength" comment. Someone must have called their attention to it later, because they finally acknowledged CJ and his injury just before halftime. It was the 4th quarter before they also commented that Kyle Kover was not playing due to knee inflammation. They never said a word (at least that I heard) about Harpring or Fesenko.

- The announcers also referred to Kosta Koufos multiple times as a rookie. C'mon guys, this is your profession. Do a little homework.

- Millsap looked outstanding. He scored inside and out, rebounded, blocked a shot, had a steal, took a charge, and just played aggressively. He had one strong driving layup going to his left that really impressed me. I don’t remember seeing that from him last season. Boozer by contrast was a complete non factor. If this game were an audition for starting PF, Millsap won the job.

- The Jazz missed Korver and CJ. The lack of an outside threat made things much more difficult for the offense. Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirlenko each airballed a 3-point attempt in the first half.

- Airball aside, Brewer looked great. I expect further improvement from him this season.

- Despite the fact that neither could hit a shot, Ronnie Price and Eric Maynor both looked good backing up DWill at the point. They both ran the offense, found open teammates, and played solid defense. Maynor showed a lot of poise for a rookie and could end up earning some minutes this season.

- At one point in the 3rd quarter, Williams fell awkwardly when running out to defend Hinrich. My heart sank as I flashed back to last year’s preseason game against the Bulls when he rolled his ankle on Derrick Rose's foot and ended up missing the first part of the season. Fortunately Deron got up and seemed fine.

- This game was my first chance to see the 2009-10 version of AK. Not sure what’s up with the hair (although I could say that every year), but his new build is legit. He apparently gained 20 pounds of muscle over the summer, and it shows. Fortunately it didn’t appear to affect his quickness on defense, as he had 2 blocks and 2 steals in only 19 minutes.

- Chicago has some good rookies. Taj Gibson was one of two players available at #19 that I had hoped the Jazz would select in this year’s draft (the other was Sam Young, and he didn’t get picked until the 2nd round). The Bulls took Gibson at #26, and I think they got a steal. They also selected James Johnson at #16 (I hoped he would slip to the Jazz but didn’t expect it), and he looked outstanding yesterday. He hit the winning shot at the buzzer to cap an 18-point outing that also included 8 rebounds and 2 blocks.

Injury Bug Already Biting Jazz - Updated

2009-10-06T13:59:00.000-07:00

October 6, 2009 -
Poor CJ. Just when it looked like things were lining up for him to have a breakout year, Miles injured his shooting hand on Monday during practice in London. The injury was diagnosed as a ruptured tendon and will require surgery. No official timeline has been given for his return, but conventional thinking is around two months.

I seriously feel bad for the kid. Miles had apparently trained pretty hard during the offseason and was down to 4 percent body fat. He had an outstanding game against Denver in the Jazz' preseason opener last Thursday and really seemed to be a transformed player. I wish him a speedy return and hope he doesn't lose everything he gained this summer during the recovery.

While I'm wishhing, how 'bout immunity for the Jazz from any further injuries this year?

Jazz Beat Nuggets to Open NBA Preseason

2009-10-01T11:18:00.000-07:00

October 2, 2009 -
It’s only preseason, but I’ll take any opportunity to see the Jazz beat the Nuggets, who rank just behind the Lakers for the coveted title of my most hated team in the NBA. The Jazz opened their 2009-10 campaign with a 103-87 victory over Denver.

The game wasn’t televised here in Arizona, so I didn’t get to watch. My schedule didn’t allow me to catch a radio feed on the internet either, so this review will be based on the box score and commentary from a few fans who attended the game in SLC (thanks Pater, Redneck, and Genki from JazzHoops). From what I gather, there were reasons for Jazz fans to be encouraged. Here are a few of the highlights:

- CJ Miles scored 16 points on 5 of 7 shooting including 2 for 2 from behind the arc. He also had 3 steals and the team’s only block.
- Carlos Boozer received a mixed welcome from fans, but there were more cheers than boos (not to be confused with Booz-es). He appeared to be putting in real effort on defense, which we can only hope continues throughout the season.
- Deron Williams had 16 points and 6 assists in 21 minutes and looked like he could do anything he wanted on the court.
- Kosta Koufos had a rough outing, going 1 for 8 from the field.
- Brewer, Millsap, Price, Okur, and Maynor all looked solid.

On a lighter note, the rookies apparently got their official welcome to the NBA when Maynor led the team out on the court, followed by two other roster hopefuls. Problem was nobody else joined them, so those three stood there in the layup line waiting for the rest of the team. Maynor had a big grin when he figured out they had just been tricked.

In summary, the team appeared to be in great shape, putting forth improved effort on defense, and running the offense with precision. You can’t read much into a preseason game, but you also couldn’t hope for a much better start for the Jazz.

Injury Bug Already Biting Jazz

2009-09-30T18:47:00.000-07:00

September 30, 2009 -
CJ Miles looks like he’s praying in this picture. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be working.

Are you kidding me? After last season’s hospital ward disguised as a basketball team missed a combined total of 149 man games to injury, I was hoping the Jazz had gotten their bad luck out of the way. Apparently not. Andrei Kirilenko, Kyle Korver, and CJ Miles all managed to injure themselves in only the second day of training camp (Sunday).

Fortunately none of the three seem to be seriously hurt. Kirilenko (strained quadriceps), Korver (inflamed knee), and Miles (strained hip) all participated in warm-up and shooting drills on Tuesday morning after missing Monday’s sessions. It’s still unknown whether any of them will play in the preseason opener tomorrow against the Denver Nuggets. Not exactly the smooth start I was hoping for.

Carlos Boozer Faces the Utah Media

2009-09-27T21:51:00.000-07:00

September 27, 2009 -
Friday was media day for the Utah Jazz. Ross Siler, Jazz beat writer for the Salt Lake Tribune, began his media day blog entry by saying, “It was difficult to listen to Carlos Boozer on Friday and not come away convinced that a trade would be in the best interests of both the Jazz and Boozer.” I couldn’t agree more. I’ve felt that way all summer, and Boozer’s media-day Q&A session did nothing to change my opinion. Let’s just say my BS meter was tripped on more than one occasion.

I almost felt sorry for Boozer as he was peppered with questions about his behavior during the offseason. Almost… But not really. Carlos brought this whole situation on himself by essentially begging Chicago and Miami to trade for him this summer. Actually it started back in December when he declared to ESPN that he would opt out of the final year of his Jazz contract by saying, “No matter what, I'm going to get a raise regardless." Not exactly an endearing comment under any circumstances, but the fact that it came when he had missed the previous 15 games with a knee injury and with Millsap playing amazingly in his absence made it all the more, well, stupid.

I’m sure there are NBA players who are worse at the PR game than Boozer, but no one immediately comes to mind.

On a more positive note, it was exciting to hear some of the other interviews during media day. Despite the fact that this summer didn’t turn out as I had hoped or expected, I’m still optimistic about the upcoming season. When asked about the shape of his players, Jerry Sloan said, “These guys look pretty good.” For the always-understated Sloan, that’s some seriously lavish praise. Hopefully we'll see the results on the court.

Jazz Training Camp Starts This Week

2009-09-22T22:28:00.000-07:00

September 22, 2009 -
First of all, Hallelujah! We’re finally just a few days away from Jazz basketball. Is it just me, or did this summer seem to last forever? (That last sentence sounded suspiciously like a Bryan Adams song.) I guess getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs does actually make the offseason longer.

Barring a surprise eleventh-hour deal, the Jazz will begin training camp this weekend with essentially the same roster they finished with last season. I don’t know anyone who expected that to happen. If we want to get technical, the Jazz did make a few trivial changes. They drafted Eric Maynor and Goran Suton, but neither should see significant playing time this year (and Suton may not even make the roster). They also elected not to bring back Morris Almond, Brevin Knight, or Jarron Collins from last year’s squad. Still, these moves amount to the equivalent of replacing the floor mats rather than overhauling the engine. I was at least hoping for some new custom rims.

The pessimist in me is frustrated and concerned that the Jazz did nothing to address obvious deficiencies like their lack of interior defense and outside shooting. I also worry about the impact Carlos Boozer’s unanticipated return will have on team chemistry. That said, there is cause to be optimistic as well:

• Deron Williams is arguably the best PG in the league and will be vying for his first all-star invitation
• The much-maligned Boozer will be highly motivated to perform in a contract year
• Kosta Koufos is poised for a big improvement after showing promise as a rookie
• Paul Millsap will be out to prove he is worthy of his new contract
• CJ Miles is rumored to have worked extremely hard in the offseason and may finally be ready for a breakout year
• Kyle Korver is healthy after wrist surgery and may show the deadly shooting touch we know he is capable of
• Memo and AK both opted out of international play to rest and prepare for the season

Just a sec while I remove my rose-colored glasses…

The Jazz could easily once again find themselves fighting for the final playoff spot in the West this season. Conversely, if everything falls into place they could push the Lakers and Spurs for the top record in the conference. I’ll reserve my official prediction until after training camp. At this point, I’m just ready for the season…come what may.

Deron Williams, Two-Sport Athlete

2009-09-18T13:16:00.001-07:00

September 18, 2009 -
Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders both played Major League Baseball and NFL Football simultaneously. Charlie Ward won the Heisman Trophy and then played point guard for the New York Knicks. Danny Ainge played baseball for the Toronto Blue Jays before beginning his NBA career with the Boston Celtics.

If the whole NBA thing doesn't pan out for Deron Williams, he might be able to fall back on his dodge ball skills. Let's hope so, because based on this picture I don't think he has a promising career in the fashion industry. (Speaking of this picture, it was posted on a JazzHoops message board by a fellow fan, and I thought it was too good not to share.)

DWill and Kyle Korver recently co-hosted a charity doge ball tournament to raise money for The Christmas Box House shelters for children. I give them full props for doing this and love seeing NBA players giving back to the community in more than just a “take my picture with this little kid for some good PR, and then get me the heck outta’ here” kind of way. Williams and Korver both do a lot of good things for charity and seem committed to being good citizens in addition to good basketball players. Nice when you don’t have to choose one or the other.

John Stockton, NBA Hall of Famer

2009-09-13T23:32:00.000-07:00

September 13, 2009 -
John Stockton is my favorite basketball player of all time. He is the reason I became a Jazz fan. I was 14 years old when the Jazz took the heavily favored (and much hated) Lakers to 7 games in the 1988 Western Conference Semifinals. My family had moved to Utah a couple of years earlier, but I had not particularly embraced the home team up until that point.

By the end of that incredible series, I was hooked. Although the Jazz eventually lost, Stockton turned in one of the most remarkable performances I’ve ever witnessed. He set the NBA playoff series record for assists (115) and steals (28). He was particularly dominant in the decisive game 7, when he scored 29 points and dished 20 assists in a losing effort. I recall being amazed that a guy who was roughly my size and didn't appear extraordinarly athletic could do what he did.

Fast forward 9 years… I still remember vividly where I was when Stockton hit “the shot” against Houston in Game 6 of the 1997 Western Conference Finals, sending the Utah Jazz to the NBA Finals for the first time. The ensuing celebration is by far the most emotion I’ve ever seen from Stockton or Jerry Sloan and was so much fun to watch.

Fast forward another 12 years… I still get chills every time I see that video clip.

It’s somewhat ironic that Stockton was enshrined in the Hall of Fame this weekend at the same time as the man primarily responsible for his never winning an NBA title -- the sole blemish on an otherwise perfect resume. Stockton is certainly not the only hall-of-famer to be denied a championship by Michael Jordan, but I digress...

While I’m not an advocate of short shorts for men, I love how Stockton shunned the hip-hop culture that overtook the NBA and remained true to himself throughout his career. Stock stood as an enigma in a league where showboating, trash talking, and self-glorification became the norm. He carried himself with a quiet confidence but was as selfless off the court as we was on it. He never sought the spotlight and was always quick to deflect credit or praise to his teammates.

I feel safe saying that there will never be another player quite like Stockton. His career record for assists has about as much chance of ever being broken as I have of being the one to break it. His career record for steals is only slightly less safe. He played 19 NBA seasons and only missed 22 games over that span. Benearth that choir-boy exterior was a true warrior.

I don’t pretend to be an objective audience, but John Stockton was the greatest point guard ever to play the game.

Players I'd Like to See in a Jazz Uniform

2009-09-07T09:18:00.000-07:00

September 7, 2009 -
Occasionally when watching other teams I’ll think to myself, “Man, I’d like to see that guy in a Jazz uniform.” I remember always feeling that way about Jeff Hornacek when he was on the Phoenix Suns and would regularly torch the Jazz with a barrage of 3s whenever the two teams played. I was absolutely ecstatic the day I heard that Utah had traded for him.

With three weeks remaining until the start of training camp and nothing happening on the free agent or trade front, this seems like as good a time as any to list my top-3 potentially attainable players at each position that I would like to see the Jazz pursue. I use the “potentially attainable” disclaimer because as much as I would love to have LeBron or Dwight Howard on the Jazz, I’m not quite delusional enough to think that could ever happen.

Point Guard – This is the one position on the Jazz where the starting job is completely set in stone. On the other hand, backup point guard has been a revolving door of sub-par talent for years. Rather than scraping the bottom of the barrel for a decent PG content to play 10 minutes a game, I would prefer to see the Jazz pick up a combo guard who could give Deron some quality rest and also effectively play beside him in certain lineups.

1. Jason Terry – Explosive scorer and quick defender. Not likely that Dallas would let him go for anything Utah would be willing to offer, but you never know.
2. Kirk Hinrich – Good shooter, strong defender, and heady player. He is a little overpaid, but his skill set would be a great fit for the Jazz.
3. Mo Williams – The one that got away... and I’d love to have him back. I still can’t believe the Jazz failed to match his offer from Milwaukee a few years ago.

Shooting Guard – This position has been a continual weakness since Hornacek retired. Brewer has made nice progress recently but is really more suited as a small forward considering his lack of outside shooting. The Jazz need an SG who plays tough D, scores consistently, and can hit the three.

1. Eric Gordon – Young, explosive guard with a decent stroke who can also get to the rim. Undersized for a 2, but still a good perimeter defender. Tons of upside.
2. Rip Hamilton – Great shooter and solid defender. Would be great coming off screens in the Jazz offense. Not sure how much he has left, but I’d like to find out.
3. Courtney Lee – Really came on strong at the end of his rookie season. I just like his game. He’s a great shooter and excellent on-the-ball defender. The kid has star potential.

Small Forward – Not long ago, this was the strongest position on the team. In a few short years, however, Harpring’s health and Kirilenko’s productivity both took a nose dive. Depending on who they play beside on the wing, the Jazz need a small forward who’s a disruptive defender and can either get to the hoop or hit outside jumpers.

1. Caron Butler – Does most everything well. Not a great 3-pt shooter, but
deadly from mid-range. He’s also a good defender and passer.
2. Gerald Wallace – He’s like a mesh between Brewer and Kirilenko, but with a better offensive game. Need to pair him with a great shooter.
3. Shane Battier and Tayshaun Prince (tie) – Neither of these guys has gaudy statistics, but they are both great defenders and team players who can knock down open shots.

Power Forward – Now that Millsap has been signed, the Jazz could use a taller, athletic player behind him who can provide energy, rebounding, and shot blocking.

1. Josh Smith – Young and incredibly athletic. He would vastly improve the Jazz’ interior defense. He’s also quick enough to play SF, helping to ensure him starter minutes.
2. Tyrus Thomas – Rumored to be a bit of a head case, he appears to have matured this past season. He’s the athletic shot blocker the Jazz have been longing for, and he still has upside.
3. Rony Turiaf – He’s a pure energy player and outstanding shot blocker with a limited offensive game.

Center – With Millsap undersized at PF and Okur playing small for a 7-footer, the Jazz need more size up front. If they go after a center rather than trusting Koufos to develop, I’d like to see them acquire a legitimate 7-footer who can be a defensive presence in the middle.

1. Andrew Bogut – Not a prolific shot blocker, but he has a nice, well-rounded game and would definitely improve the center position.
2. Tyson Chandler – Athletic rebounder, shot blocker, and alley-oop recipient. Seems like an ideal complement to Memo.
3. Joel Pryzbilla – Good rebounder, shot blocker, and weak-side help defender. Not much of a scorer, but he’s definitely tough.

Utah Jazz Offseason a Major...?

2009-08-31T14:00:00.000-07:00

August 31, 2009 -
Not quite sure how to finish that sentence. Success? Bust? Disappointment? Guess it all depends on your perspective. At this point, the only word I can really settle on is Bore.

So what happened to the most exciting summer in Jazz history? With eight free agents including four of the team’s key players (Boozer, Memo, Millsap, and Korver), we were guaranteed to see some major movement. The Jazz had everything you need to pull off a blockbuster: expiring contracts, all-star talent, young players with upside, and the highly coveted NY 2010 draft pick. All we fans had to do was grab some popcorn, pull up a chair, and watch the events unfold…

This summer has been like meeting a hot girl who flirts with you but then stands you up for the date.

Did you know the Jazz are the only team in the entire NBA who have not either added a new player to their roster (aside from their draft picks) or had another team sign away one of their free agents? In the meantime, the majority of contenders in the West have made at least one significant move to improve their team. Check out this list based on 2009 playoff seeds:

1. Lakers – Signed Ron Artest
2. Nuggets – A few minor deals, but no major changes
3. Spurs – Traded for Richard Jefferson; signed Antonio McDyess
4. Houston – Signed Tervor Ariza (but lost Artest to the Lakers and Yao to injury)
5. Portland – Signed Andre Miller
6. Dallas – Traded for Shawn Marion; signed Drew Gooden
7. Hornets – Traded for Emeka Okafor
8. Jazz – I heard they added a new towel boy for home games

Clearly five of the teams ahead of the Jazz in last season’s standings pulled off deals that make them stronger, at least on paper. You never know how it will translate on the court, but the West definitely looks tougher than ever.

Training camp doesn’t start for another month, so things could still change between now and then. I’m holding out hope that KOC has a few tricks up his sleeve, because it will be a major letdown to start the season with the same cast that barely made the playoffs last year. For now, the Jazz offseason remains an unanswered question.

Boozer Makes a Top-10 List

2009-08-23T22:12:00.000-07:00

August 23, 2009 -
I had to laugh when I came across an article today on FOXSports.com by John Galisnsky highlighting the NBA's top-10 stat stuffers, which he defines as "players who put up big numbers but aren't as valuable as their stats suggest." Guess who was #7 on the list? I'll give you a hint: His last name rhymes with Loozer...

I couldn't disagree with anything Galinsky said about Boozer:

"Why have most Utah fans soured on Boozer despite his big numbers and two All-Star Game selections over the past five years? Because he hasn't been durable, missing 134 games in that span. Because he's a lousy team leader. Because of his matador defense. And most of all, because he's greedy. Boozer planned to opt out of the last year of his Jazz contract before he realized he wouldn't get more than $12.6 million elsewhere. Even now he's trying to force a trade, but the league-wide consensus is clear: He's not as good as he thinks he is. You can bet he won't be on Team USA in 2012."

It's a shame the national media caught on to Booz before the Jazz were able to trade him. He could still be an extremely valuable player in the right situation, but his recent antics (and articles like this) have really hurt his brand.

3-Team Trade Idea

2009-08-07T22:48:00.000-07:00

August 7, 2009 -
Following up on my August 25th thought, I came up with a 3-team trade idea involving both New Jersey and Golden State. A fellow Jazz fan in the Bay Area tipped me off to the notion that GS has interest in Yi Jianlian based on the area's significant Asian population and the fact that Yi's game fits the Warrior's offense. With that in mind, here's my proposal:

Utah sends Boozer & CJ to New Jersey
Golden State sends Kalena Azubuike to New Jersey and Brandan Wright, Speedy Claxton, & Acie Law to Utah
New Jersey sends Courtney Lee to Utah and Yi Jianlian & Bobby Simmons to Golden State

Here's the breakdown for each team:

New Jersey - They get the low-post scorer and rebounder they desperately need. Boozer could actually be a great fit playing next to Brook Lopez and would likely sign an extension if the Nets wanted to keep him. NJ also gets Azubuike and CJ to replace Lee and Simmons at the wings. New lineup:

PG - Harris, Alston, Dooling
SG - Azubuike, Terrance Williams
SF - CJ, CDR, Hayes
PF - Boozer, Sean Williams
C - Lopez, Boone, Battie

Golden State - They give up two bench players and two expiring contracts in exchange for a 7-ft shooting PF they apparently covet, along with a tall, 3-pt shooting wing with a large expiring contract. Both players seem like they would fit well in GS. New lineup:

PG - Ellis, Curry
SG - Jackson, Morrow
SF - Maggette, Simmons, George
PF - Randolph, Yi
C - Biedrins, Turiaf

Utah - They dump Boozer and CJ in exchange for two young, talented players and cap relief. Lee and Wright both have great potential and should be immediate rotation players. The Jazz also take back $6M less in salary than they send out, resulting in a $12M combined luxury tax savings this season. They may also be able to save more by buying out Claxton and/or Law. New lineup:

PG - Deron, Price, Maynor
SG - Lee, Korver
SF - AK, Brewer
PF - Millsap, Wright
C - Memo, Koufos, Fess

I think this is a trade that actually benefits all three teams. If I had KOC's number, his phone would be ringing right now.

August 25th

2009-08-06T16:29:00.000-07:00

August 6, 2009 -
This is the next potential date of interest in the ongoing Boozer trade saga. It represents the point at which a handful of players moved in previous deals this summer are eliigible to be traded again. According to ESPN.com:

"If a team is over the cap and receives a player in a trade or claims a player off waivers, they cannot trade the player in combination with other players for two months. The player can be traded by himself."

Under this rule, the following players will be avaialbe to trade again after August 25th:

New Jersey: Courtney Lee, Tony Battie, Rafer Alston
Golden State: Speedy Claxton, Acie Law

Both NJ and GS have been mentioned previously in Boozer rumors, and they both have a combination of young talent and expiring contracts to offer. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to learn that KOC is waiting until the 25th to pull the trigger on a deal with one (or both) of these teams.

3 Teams, 20 Boozer Trade Ideas

2009-07-28T22:19:00.000-07:00

July 28, 2009 -
I've been playing around on ESPN Trade Machine to see how many plausable trade scenarios I could come up with for the teams rumored to want Boozer. I intentionally did not include NY because I just can't imagine the Jazz will do a deal with them, and they really don't have any players I want.

While some of these trades would obviously make me happier than others, I only listed deals that I would actually do (assuming no better offers were on the table). Seems like KOC should be able to make at least one of these happen:

Miami
Boozer for Beasley and Haslem
Boozer for Chalmers, Cook, Blount, and 2010 1st-round pick
Boozer and Kirilenko for Beasley and O’Neal
Boozer and CJ for Beasley, Blount, and Cook
Boozer and CJ for Beasley, Haslem, and Cook
Boozer for Haslem, Wright, and Cook + CJ for Chalmers (separate transaction to take advantage of trade exception)
Boozer, CJ, and Harpring for Beasley, Haslem, and Blount

Summary: Any Miami trade must include either Beasley or both Chalmers and Cook.

New Jersey
Boozer for Lee and Simmons
Boozer for Lee, Battie, and Dooling
Boozer for Lee, Battie, and Yi
Boozer and CJ for Lee, Simmons, and Boone
Boozer and Harpring for Lee, Simmons, and Dooling
Boozer, CJ, and Harpring for Lee, Simmons, and Battie

Summary: Any NJ trade must include Courtney Lee (unless of course Brook Lopez is available...)

Chicago
Boozer for Thomas and James
Boozer for Hinrich and Noah
Boozer and Fess for Salmons and James
Boozer and CJ for Hinrich and Thomas
Boozer and CJ for Hinrich, James, and 2010 1st-round pick
Boozer and Harpring for Thomas and Miller
Boozer, Kirilenko, and CJ for Hinrich, Thomas, Deng, and James

Summary: There are a bunch of Chicago players I would happily take back for Boozer

Millsap Matched

2009-07-17T16:31:00.000-07:00

July 17, 2009 –
If I had any doubt about Jazz ownership’s commitment to building a title contender rather than saving a buck, those fears have been put to rest. By matching Portland’s “toxic” offer sheet to Paul Millsap, Greg Miller convinced me that he wants to win.

I’m thrilled that Millsap will remain a Jazzman. While I always believed the Jazz would be true to their word and match any reasonable offer he received, there was enough subjectivity in the term “reasonable” to leave them an out had they chosen to go the financially conservative route. Instead, they will pay Paul a boatload of money upfront and then have him locked to an extremely reasonable contract for the next four years.

(I promise not to use the word “reasonable” for the remainder of this post.)

Now things get interesting. This move obviously makes Boozer’s imminent departure appear to be more of a foregone conclusion than it already was. The question is does it hurt Utah’s leverage now that other teams know the Jazz are deep in luxury tax territory and may therefore be much more motivated to trade Boozer for some salary relief?

I don’t believe the Jazz will deal Boozer for nothing more than cap relief, and I sincerely hope I’m not proven wrong. It just wouldn’t be reason… uh… I mean, "sensible" to do so.

Top Five Wishes for the Rest of the Offseason

2009-07-13T11:54:00.000-07:00

July 13, 2009 -
1. Jazz match Millsap -- He needs to be a Jazzman. We don't have enough tough, hustle players, and Sap actually has skill and upside to go along with it. It will be a sad day if he becomes a Blazer.

2. Jazz trade Boozer without involving Portland -- I don't want to see them benefit in any way from signing Millsap to a "toxic" offer sheet, even if it does allow the Jazz to shed more salary. I just want the Jazz to get something of value back for Booz, not just expiring contracts.

3. Jazz trade small and/or expiring contracts for a single wing upgrade -- I would like to see any combination of Harp, CJ, Korver, Fess, and Brewer traded for someone like Caron Butler, Gerald Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Kevin Martin, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, John Salmons, Tayshaun Prince, etc. (Probably dreaming here, but if San Antonio can get Richard Jefferson for their leftovers, there's always a chance...)

4. Andre Miller re-signs with Philly (and therefore not Portland or NY) -- Miller makes the players around him better, and for obvious reasons I don't want to see either of those two teams improve.

5. Lamar Odom signs with anyone but Portland -- Again, no interest in seeing Portland add a player who could make them better. I can't figure out why they haven't pursued Odom aggressively, as he seems like a great fit for them at both forward spots.

So how many of the five will actually happen? Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Boozer Trade Ideas Revisited

2009-07-02T11:48:00.000-07:00

July 2, 2009 -
Now that the free-agent opt-out decisions have been made and the landscape is a little clearer, it’s a great time to revisit possible trade destinations for Boozer. Let’s face it; the majority of Jazz fans will be sorely disappointed if he’s a member of the team when training camp begins. While there are numerous potential trade scenarios involving Boozer, I’ll focus on what I believe are the top-5 most likely:

(Note: I had to change this article at the last minute to remove Detroit, as their recent signing of Villenueva makes it highly unlikely they would trade for Boozer)

Chicago
Best realistic deal: Boozer, Brewer, and CJ for Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons.
Alternate deal: Boozer and CJ for Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas

I love the idea of Hinrich on the Jazz as a quality backup for Deron and solid option at the two. But can the Jazz really afford $9M a year for a backcourt role player? He still has three years left on his contract, so it’s a bit risky. If he can provide some consistent shooting and defense from the SG position, it might be worth it.

Salmons would be perfect for the Jazz, giving them a solid defender and true scoring option capable of playing either wing position. He also has a cheap contract ($6M for the next two years). I believe this is a trade that would make both teams better.

The alternate deal with Tyrus Thomas is not quite as attractive, but still a decent option.

Here's how the new Jazz would look under the better scenario, with my best guess at minutes distribution:

PG – Deron (36), Hinrich (12), Maynor
SG – Hinrich (20), Korver (28)
SF – Salmons (36), AK (12), Harpring
PF – Millsap (32), AK (16)
C – Memo (30), Koufos (18), Fess
Projected 2009-10 Salary: $79M

Golden State
Best realistic deal: Boozer, CJ, and Fess for Rony Turiaf, Brandan Wright, Kalena Azubuike, Speedy Claxton (to be waived), and a 2010 1st round pick (top-10 protected).
Alternate deal: Boozer, CJ, and Fess for Andris Biedrins, Anthony Morrow, Wright, Claxton, and the 2010 1st rounder.

Nellie has already made it known that he will not trade Anthony Randolph or Steph Curry. Otherwise those two would headline the list. The Jazz don’t get equal value in this trade, but they do acquire a bunch of young talent and would still be able to put a competitive team on the floor in 2009. If nothing else, they improve their shot blocking and 3-pt shooting. They also get an additional pick in the deep 2010 draft.

This trade is similar to the rumored deal with Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire that has apparently fallen apart. Boozer should fit in well in GS since they don’t play defense.

PG – Deron (36), Price (12), Maynor
SG – Azubuike (20), Korver (20), Brewer (8)
SF – AK (28), Brewer (20), Harpring
PF – Millsap (30), Wright (12), Turiaf (6)
C – Memo (30), Koufos (12), Turiaf (6)
Projected 2009-10 Salary: $82M

Houston
Best realistic deal: Boozer and CJ for Shane Battier, Luis Scola, and Brian Cook (to be waived)
Alternate deal: Boozer for Artest (sign and trade) and Scola

Houston desperately needs scoring with Yao out and McGrady likely missing much of the season. Boozer would give them that. Battier and Scola would both be great additions to the Jazz, although they are clearly role players. This team would be competitive (and much improved defensively) but would still lack a go-to scorer outside of Deron.

The alternate deal involving Artest would be intriguing, but would he come to Utah, and would the Jazz really want him to?

PG – Deron (36), Price (12), Maynor
SG – Brewer (28), Korver (20)
SF – Battier (28), AK (20), Harpring
PF – Millsap (28), Scola (20)
C – Memo (30), Koufos (18), Fess
Projected 2009-10 Salary: $80M

Charlotte
Best realistic deal: Boozer and CJ for Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell
Alternate deal: Boozer for Emeka Okafor

The Bobcats are losing money and desperate to dump salary. Boozer is an expiring contract but could also be a local draw since he played at Duke. Wallace is reportedly available and would be a nice addition to the Jazz, bringing athleticism, defense and the ability to get to the line. Bell would add outside shooting and defensive toughness. This move would give the Jazz a serious logjam at the wing, so they would likely need to make a subsequent trade.

The Bobcats would really have to be desperate to unload Okafor after consecutive seasons in which he played all 82 games, but who knows?

PG – Deron (36), Price (12), Maynor
SG – Bell (24), Brewer (12), Korver (12)
SF – Wallace (32), Brewer (16), Harpring
PF – Millsap (30), AK (18)
C – Memo (30), Koufos (18), Fess
Projected 2009-10 Salary: $82M

New Jersey
Best realistic deal: Boozer and CJ for Bobby Simmons, Courtney Lee, and Kenyon Dooling

This is another deal in which the Jazz clearly don’t get equal value immediately, but they do get some young talent and fill some needs. Courtney Lee had a strong rookie season and could make it much easier to let Korver go next year. Dooling is a combo guard who plays tough D and can hit the three. Simmons makes the deal work with his large expiring contract ($10M), but he's also a good defender and great 3-pt shooter from the corner. As with the Charlotte trade, this would leave the Jazz with a glut of wing players, so an additional trade would make sense.

PG – Deron (36), Dooling (12), Maynor
SG – Lee (24), Korver (18), Dooling (6)
SF – Brewer (30), Simmons (10), Harpring
PF – Millsap (30), AK (18)
C – Memo (30), Koufos (18), Fess
Projected 2009-10 Salary: $81M

Of the deals above, I like the Chicago trade the best. As you can see, all of these place the Jazz well into luxury tax territory for the 2009-10 season, but that seems a foregone conclusion at this point. These scenarios all assume that Millsap returns to Utah (I used a starting salary of $8M for my assumptions). If he gets an offer sheet that the Jazz feel they can’t match, that could change the landscape considerably. Should that happen, I’ll update the trade scenarios

Jazz Draft Recap

2009-06-25T21:31:00.000-07:00

June 25, 2009 -
Wow, this was an incredibly anti-climactic draft. I'm not exactly sure what I expected to happen, but it didn't. No trades, no drama, no nothing. The Jazz took Eric Maynor from VCU with the 20th pick. Chances are he'll spend most of the year in Orem with the Flash. How exciting.

Maynor may end up being a great pick. I was just disappointed the Jazz passed on Sam Young. Then again so did a lot of teams, so maybe they know something I don't? Young just seemed like the exact kind of player the Jazz needed coming off the bench. I viewed him as the perfect replacement for Harpring, who may have played his last NBA game. He's a tough guy, and the Jazz could sure use a few more of those.

I'm still dumbfounded by the Suton selection in the second round. I'll be shocked if he ever sees a minute on the floor for the Jazz. I was hoping they would take Nando de Colo, whom the Spurs selected three picks later. Considering the Spurs are ususally smarter than every other team when it comes to the draft, he'll probably end up being a star.

Now we wait a few days to see what Boozer, Okur, and Korver do with their contract options. I predict Kyle and Memo will opt in, and Boozer will opt out to sign with the Pistons.

Five Mistakes the Jazz Could Make This Summer

2009-06-01T23:41:00.000-07:00

June 1, 2009 -
I’ve been speculating heavily in recent weeks about what moves the Jazz will make this summer. Unfortunately, there are too many factors beyond the team’s control at this point for them to do much more than theoretical planning. The decisions the front office makes this summer (and potentially up to next season’s trade deadline) will have a profound impact on the future success of this team. The Jazz have enough talent and resources to transform themselves into immediate title contenders with a few key moves. Conversely, they could also condemn themselves to years of mediocrity with a few key blunders.

With that in mind, I have identified five major mistakes the Jazz must not make this summer:

Mistake #1: Overpay for Boozer – The Jazz should be all too familiar with the perils of bad contracts. Perennial underachiever, Greg Ostertag, was overpaid for years, and his contract prevented the Jazz from acquiring additional talent that could have helped bring a title to Utah. Andrei Kirilenko is the most recent example of an overpaid underachiever. His max deal has two years left and represents a huge burden to the team’s current financial flexibility.

On one hand, Carlos Boozer is a two-time NBA all-star and Olympic gold medalist. He is one of only a handful of players capable of averaging 20 points and 10 boards over the course of a season. On the other hand, Boozer missed one third of his possible games over the past four years, with three separate “major” injuries. He also disappeared for critical stretches, including the 2008 Playoffs. His defense is dismal, and his character, leadership, and desire have all come under legitimate question.

Paul Millsap is not as talented a scorer, but he’s a comparable rebounder and much better defender than Boozer. He is also younger, more durable, and will come significantly cheaper. Millsap is a Jerry Sloan-type player who brings it every night. You can’t ask for a much better contingency plan should Boozer leave.

Let’s cut to the chase. Considering that the salary cap is shrinking, the Jazz should not offer Boozer that raise he so brashly predicted. If he can find a team willing to give him one, more power to him. Utah should then explore sign-and-trade opportunities with that team, assuming they have assets the Jazz would want in return.

If that doesn’t work, just let him walk.

Yes, I just suggested letting an all-star walk out the door. While it would hurt to lose Boozer for nothing, the alternative of being saddled by a terrible contract attached to a player who will never deliver a title would be even more painful.

Mistake #2: Keep Boozer and Okur together – The sample size is now officially large enough to draw a solid conclusion: Booz and Memo are the weakest defensive frontcourt tandem in the league. Champions play tough D, and these two either can’t or won’t. It’s a shame, because they actually complement each other nicely on offense.

Bottom line: if one stays, the other must go. Personally I would prefer to keep Okur for a number of reasons (this argument could command a separate article), but I could live with either scenario so long as one of them is replaced by a defensive stalwart. I can’t stomach another season of opposing teams taking it to the hole without fear or retribution.

Mistake #3: Trade the 2010 Knicks’ pick without getting an all-star in return – Thanks to the brilliant business mind of Isiah Thomas, the Jazz own New York’s 2010 first-round draft pick, completely unprotected. This pick could range anywhere from the mid-teens all the way up to number one. Based on the Knicks’ performance last season, it will most likely be in the 6-10 range. The 2010 draft is supposed to be one of the strongest in recent years, making this pick an even more coveted prize.

The Jazz can approach this asset a couple of different ways. They can hold on to it, hope the Knicks have another poor season, and pray for lottery luck. Or they could trade the pick to improve the team right away with a known commodity. They could also use it to entice another team to take bad contracts (i.e. Kirilenko), and this is what scares me.

This pick is far too valuable to be used for anything less than significantly improving the team. Sure, it could end up being a bust, but it could also land a franchise player. The Jazz should entertain trade offers for the pick during the upcoming year, but only if they receive all-star talent in return. Simply using it to dump salary would be inexcusable.

Mistake #4: Take a passive approach – The Jazz are traditionally a conservative organization, not exactly known for shaking things up. (How often have you heard the terms “Utah Jazz” and “blockbuster trade” in the same sentence?) In recent years, the Jazz have employed a stay-the-course strategy, making minor adjustments in hopes that this young team would evolve into a title contender. Injuries aside, I think the past season proved that strategy to be flawed. This team has too many serious weaknesses (defense, 3-pt shooting, athleticism, toughness, wing scoring, etc.) to address them with a little tweaking.

Fortunately the Jazz have a number of valuable resources at their disposal to orchestrate trades including all-star talent (Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko), expiring contracts (Harpring, Brewer), young players with upside (Millsap, Brewer, Miles, Koufos, Fessenko), and the aforementioned NY draft pick. Kevin O’Connor needs to use these resources aggressively to address key weaknesses. The Jazz need to make at least one, if not two major deals this summer.

Deron Williams is the team’s franchise player. He is untouchable (unless of course the Cavs are shopping LeBron). Everyone else is fair game. The goal should be to surround Williams with the best possible cast, even if that means shipping away two or three of the current core. Swapping Brevin Knight for Kenyon Dooling won’t cut it.

Mistake #5: Focus on cutting costs – In the current economic recession, many teams around the league are hurting financially. With owners and GMs looking to cut costs, good talent will be available at deep discounts. Mark my words: the teams that are aggressive during this period will be the big winners over the next decade. Of course the Jazz need to be prudent with their finances, but if they get too conservative and prioritize cost cutting above talent acquisition, they will miss a golden opportunity to improve the team. Sure, that’s easy for me to say when I don’t have to pay the bills, but a winning team equates to winning ticket and merchandise sales. The same principle holds true for a mediocre team.

A little short-term financial pain over the next year or two could equate to serious long-term gain and potentially reward the franchise with that first elusive title.

At the end of the summer, I'll revisit this topic and grade the performance.

Who Wants Boozer?

2009-05-08T16:57:00.000-07:00

May 8, 2009 -
Despite the fact that most of us are down on Boozer, he is a proven 20/10 guy when healthy, and there just aren’t many of those in the league. For that reason, I believe a number of teams would be highly interested in acquiring him, and possibly willing to give up good players to make it happen. The most logical destination for Booz is a team with a strong defensive front-court presence that needs more scoring and rebounding.

I’ve gone through all 29 teams and grouped them into 3 categories with respect to their potential interest level in Boozer:

LITTLE TO NONE
Boston – They have KG.
Dallas – They have Dirk.
LA Clippers – Boozer is too similar to Randolph.
LA Lakers – They need a PG, not a PF.
Minnesota – They have Al Jefferson.
New Orleans – They have David West.
OKC – They have Jeff Green.
Orlando – They have Rashard Lewis.
Philly – They have Brand.
Phoenix – They have Amare.
Portland – They have Aldridge.

MODERATE
Cleveland – They are dominating right now. Why mess that up? And would they want Booz after he screwed them?
Denver – Moot point, as the Jazz would never trade Boozer within the division.
Houston – The Rockets wouldn’t want a third injury-prone all-star.
Indiana – Murphy had a nice year for them and is cheaper.
Miami – Rumored to be interested, but the Jermaine O’Neil trade pretty much killed that prospect.
New York – Might want Booz if they don’t keep David Lee, but they have no shot blockers.
San Antonio – Boozer would actually be great next to Duncan, but the Spurs would have to give up Parker or Ginobli to make it work. Not gonna happen.
Toronto – Only makes sense if they think Bosh will bolt.

That leaves us with 10 teams who could/have legitimate interest in acquiring Boozer:

HIGH
Atlanta – They have Horford, Pachulia, and Josh Smith – all decent defenders, but none of them are prolific scorers. Booz could be a missing piece for this mid-tier playoff team.
Charlotte – They don’t have a true PF and could really use one. Okafor is a good defender and shot blocker to compensate for Boozer’s weakness. This one makes a lot of sense.
Chicago – They have Noah, Brad Miller, and Tyrus Thomas. All can defend, but none can score or rebound like Boozer. He could take a lot of pressure off their backcourt.
Detroit – They are in rebuilding mode and apparently have interest in Boozer. They could sign him outright but might consider a sign-and-trade to save cap space.
Golden State – Most of their points come from the perimeter. They could definitely use the post scoring and rebounding Boozer would bring.
Memphis – They have good prospects at most every position, except PF. They also have the cap space to sign Boozer outright.
Milwaukee – Boozer would be a big upgrade over Villanueva at PF, and a nice complement to Bogut.
New Jersey – Their backcourt is strong, but the frontcourt lacks scoring punch. They do have a number of young shot blockers that Booz could play beside.
Sacramento – They need everything except a shooting guard (KMart). Their frontcourt is young and could use a veteran scorer and rebounder.
Washington – They have shot-blocking centers and good wings, but no real low post threat (Jamison is more a perimeter forward). Plus they are awful and need to make changes.

Next, the challenge becomes identifying realistic sign-and-trade possibilities for each of these teams that both sides would be happy with. Here’s my best shot:

Atlanta – Boozer for Josh Smith + filler
Jazz could certainly use his athleticism and shot blocking. I would actually prefer Joe Johnson, but I doubt Atlanta would part with him unless they don’t expect him to re-sign. Al Horford and Marvin Williams could also work.

Charlotte – Boozer and Brewer for Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell
This deal would greatly improve Utah’s defense and wing scoring. Okafor is another possibility but would be risky with his big contract (2014) and injury history.

Chicago – Boozer for Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas
Hinrich would be an ideal combo guard for the Jazz, and Thomas is an athletic shot blocker. There are actually a number of potential trades that could work with the Bulls that include a combination of Hinrich, Thomas, Gordon, Salmons, Noah, etc. The perfect deal for the Jazz would be Booz and CJ for Hinrich and Salmons, but I doubt the Bulls would do it. If they would, I couldn't sign that contract fast enough.

Detroit – Boozer for Rip Hamilton
I would also love Tayshaun Prince, but that doesn’t make as much sense unless the Jazz move AK. Rip would bring shooting and defense, two things the Jazz could sure use.

Golden State – Boozer and CJ for Jamal Crawford, Rony Turiaf, Kalenna Azubuike, and a 1st round pick
This would net the Jazz an explosive combo guard, a 3-point threat, and a great shot blocker. As with the Bulls, there are a number of potential trades that could work involving a combination of Crawford, Turiaf, Maggette, Biedrins, Wright, etc. That said, I would prefer to include AK in a deal with GS since they are a team that might want him.

Memphis – No deal
They probably wouldn’t give up Gay, Mayo, or Gasol considering they don’t need a sign-and-trade to get Boozer. Darrell Arthur is likely the best the Jazz could do.

Milwaukee – Boozer for Richard Jefferson
I’d like to see the Jazz to get Bogut, but the more I think about it, the Bucks would have an incredibly small frontcourt without him. I doubt they let him go. Jefferson would provide a nice scoring upgrade at the wing, but he’s expensive.

New Jersey – Boozer for Brook Lopez and Bobby Simmons (filler + expiring contract)
Jersey only does this if they are trying to win now (i.e. while Vince Carter is still playing at a high level). Otherwise, there’s no way they let go of Lopez after his impressive rookie campaign.

Sacramento - Boozer and CJ for Francisco Garcia, Jason Thompson, and Kenny Thomas (filler + expiring contract), and a 1st round pick
Since Boozer can’t be traded until the free-agent signing period begins, lottery and draft results could impact the Kings’ interest. If they get Griffin, they won’t want Boozer. Cisco would be a big upgrade over CJ, and Thompson showed nice potential in his rookie season.

Washington – Boozer and CJ for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood
This deal makes the Jazz bigger and tougher. Butler brings a true scoring threat and tough defense from the wing. Haywood is a big shot blocker. As with Sacramento, draft results will likely impact Washington’s interest.

Obviously these trade scenarios will be heavily influenced by whether or not Boozer opts out of the final year of his contract as he indicated he would. I'll post an update after the beginning of free agency when the landscape should be a little more clear.

Blueprint for KOC

2009-04-20T23:18:00.000-07:00

April 20, 2009 -
I realize the playoffs just started, but this season is as good as over. Had the Jazz managed to move up to the 6th or 7th seed, I would have held out hope they could pull together and possibly win a series or two… But not against the Lakers. The Jazz are in complete disarray at the moment and are now facing the best team in the West, against whom they match up poorly under the best of circumstances. They will be lucky to win a single game.

With that rosy picture as our backdrop, time to focus on what must happen for the future. To break up the negativity, I’ll actually start with the positives of the current team:

PG play – Deron is arguably the best in the league at his position and should be for years to come.
Depth – Top to bottom, I can't think of a team with a more talented roster.
Youth – The entire squad is under 30 with the exception of Harpring, Knight, and Collins
Passing – The Jazz led the league in assists, and not just because of Deron

Now for the “areas of opportunity.” Here’s where the Jazz need some serious improvement:

Defense – Hard to imagine a Jerry Sloan team giving up 110 points on average over the last 12 games of the season, but it happened. The perimeter defense is weak, but the interior is disgraceful.
Toughness – This team is just too soft. Harpring, Millsap, Collins, and Williams are tough. Anyone else?
Wing scoring – The Jazz lack a wing player who can put up points in bunches and really forces a defense to focus on stopping him.
Rebounding – After leading the league in 2006-07, the team’s rebounding has regressed considerably over the past two seasons.
Cap relief – Without making some moves, the Jazz will be well over the luxury tax next season.

I’m going to break up the current roster into three categories, and then make my specific recommendations for KOC’s course of action:

Keep:
Deron Williams – He is the franchise player and only untouchable on the team (unless Lebron James or Dwight Howard is available…)
Paul Millsap – Showed great potential with his amazing double-double streak. He works hard, plays defense, still has upside, and will be much more affordable than Boozer
Kyle Korver – Much-needed sharpshooter, defense stretcher, and chick magnet.
Mehmet Okur – His post play is improved, and so is his 3-point shooting. He’s a tough mismatch for opposing teams, and the Jazz would struggle to replace what he brings.
Kosta Koufos – D-League numbers don’t mean much, but he could become the complete package at center with his size, athleticism, and work ethic.

Dump:
Carlos Boozer – His welcome is officially worn out. Too soft, too injury prone, and too invisible on defense.
Andrei Kirilenko – I love him, but he just can’t seem to keep it together as a role player and is nowhere near worth his contract.
CJ Miles – Experiment failed.
Jarron Collins – Expiring contract that should not be re-signed (unless the team has an open roster spot and he’ll take the league minimum).
Morris Almond – Jazz already made this decision when they declined his option.

Indifferent:
Ronnie Brewer – Young, athletic, and consistently improving. But isn't your shooting guard supposed to be able to shoot?
Matt Harpring – Jazz could use his toughness, but he’s over the hill and overpaid.
Ronnie Price – Great energy guy who is nice to have at the end of the bench.
Kyrylo Fessenko – Big potential that likely won’t be realized, but he’s a cheap 7-footer.
Brevin Knight – Not a terrible option if the Jazz can’t find anyone better, but he'll have to take a pay cut.

Here are my attempts at realistic proposals for moves the Jazz should make during the off season. I made some similar suggestions in a post a few months back, but these have been refreshed:

Move #1: Re-sign Millsap, Price, and Fess

Sign Millsap for $28M over 4 years – He's worth this money and won’t likely get a better offer in the current economy.
Sign Price for $2.4M over 2 years – Reasonable contract for a 3rd PG who knows the system and plays hard.
Pick up Fess’ option for $870K – Cheap contract for a young big with upside.

Move #2: Trade Boozer and Brewer to Charlotte for Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell

Why Charlotte does this: They were reportedly shopping Wallace at the trade deadline, so this should not be a stretch. Bobcats need a post scoring threat, and Boozer would actually be a great frontcourt complement to Diaw and Okafor, who can make up for his defensive deficiencies. If it doesn’t work out, they get cap space for 2010. Brewer is younger, cheaper, and has more upside than Bell.

Why Utah does this: Boozer needs to go. He is a defensive liability and cannot coexist with Okur. Millsap is at the very least a solid PF replacement at a much lower cost. Wallace gives the Jazz a desperately needed wing scoring threat while also providing rebounding and excellent perimeter defense. I don’t want to give up Brewer, but Wallace replaces his athleticism. Bell plays tough defense, can hit the three, and brings a little nastiness. He’s a better fit along side Wallace.

Move #3 (realistic): Trade AK, CJ, and Hapring to Oklahoma City for Earl Watson, Nick Collison, and Damien Wilkins (this trade would have to occur after Jul 27 due to CJ signing OKC’s offer sheet last summer)

Why OKC does this: They have cap space -- the key component here since salaries don't match -- but may have trouble attracting a top-tier free agent. This trade gives them two starter-caliber players (one of which they obviously wanted last summer) and a tough vet in exchange for three backups. AK could thrive in this system playing along side younger players. Additionally, the Thunder should still have enough cap space to go after a free agent in 2010 since Harpring’s contract is expring.

Why Utah does this: Despite the occasional great game, AK has sufficiently proven he will never match the level of play that earned him a max contract. He just doesn’t seem to be able to find his groove with this team. While clearly lopsided from a talent perspective, this trade gives the Jazz cap relief and provides solid backups at PG and PF in Watson and Collison, who are both tough defenders. It won't be easy to find a team willing to take AK's contract, so this may be the best they can do.

Those moves would leave the Jazz with the following roster (along with my guesstimate at the distribution of minutes):

PG – Williams (36), Watson (12)
SG – Bell (32), Korver (16)
SF – Wallace (36), Korver (12)
PF – Millsap (32), Collison (16)
C – Memo (32), Koufos (16)
Garbage/injury time: Fess, Price, Wilkins, Draft Pick(s)
2009/10 Total Salary: $71.4 MM

You never know how well a team will mesh together until you see them on the court, but I like this lineup on paper. I really believe Charlotte would do the Boozer/Wallace trade, and I think it’s a win for both teams. The big question is could the Jazz get more for AK, CJ and Harp than the proposed OKC deal? Here are a few slightly more “optimistic” scenarios:

Move #3a (optimistic): Jazz trade AK to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas
Move #3b - Trade CJ and Harpring to OKC (or any team with cap space) for a 2nd round pick

Why Chicago does this: They have a logjam in the backcourt with Hinrich, Rose, and Gordon. Hinrich still has 3 years on his contract, and $9M is a lot to pay a guard who is only getting 26 minutes a game. AK could start at PF and give them a veteran presence with a much more comlete game than Thomas. His contract is a year shorter than Hinrich’s.

Why Utah does this: Again, it’s about getting the most value in return for AK. Hinrich would give the Jazz their best backup PG since Stockton played behind Ricky Green. He could also play SG along side Deron in a small backcourt. He’s a good 3-pt shooter and a great defender. Tyrus Thomas is a bit of a wild card, but he’s the athletic post defender the Jazz have needed for years.

PG – Williams (36), Hinrich (12)
SG – Bell (26), Korver (12), Hinrich (10)
SF – Wallace (36), Korver (12)
PF – Millsap (32), Thomas (16)
C – Memo (32), Koufos (16)
Garbage/injury time: Fess, Price, Draft Pick(s)
2009/10 Total Salary: $70.3 MM

And here's one more (my ideal scenario):

Move #3a (ideal) - Trade AK and the NYC pick to LA Clippers for Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon, and Ricky Davis (filler -- to be waived)
Move #3b - Trade CJ and Harpring to OKC (or any team with cap space) for a 2nd round pick

Why LAC does this: The Clippers are terrible and likely looking to make changes. Kaman has been injured quite a bit, still has 3 years on his contract, and was actually playing behind Camby at the end of the season. They won't want to give up Gordon after a strong rookie year, but the unprotected NYC pick might entice them just enough. AK would give them a good veteren who could start at either SF or PF, or he could be a sixth man behind Thornton and Randolph at both spots.

Why Utah does this: Kaman would give the Jazz a legit traditional center and good frontcourt depth along with Memo, Millsap, and Koufos. Gordon provides the explosive SG the Jazz lack who can score from the perimeter, get to the line, and play tough D. Plus he is young and inexpensive. Giving up the NYC pick is a gamble, but they would be lucky to get a player as good as Gordon in the draft, and he would still be a couple of years away from contributing.

PG – Williams (36), Price (12)
SG – Gordon (30), Bell (18)
SF – Wallace (32), Korver (16)
PF – Millsap (32), Koufos (16)
C – Kaman (24), Memo (24)
Garbage/injury time: Fess, Draft Pick(s)
2009/10 Total Salary: $70.9 MM

This accomplishes everything the Jazz need:

Improved toughness – Losing Boozer, CJ, and AK is addition by subtraction in this category. Wallace, Bell, and Kaman all seem sufficiently tough.
Better rebounding – A front line of Wallace, Millsap, and Kaman would be outstanding on the boards.
Interior defense – Kaman, Koufos, Millsap and Wallace are all shot blockers.
Perimeter defense – Wallace, Gordon, and Bell are all strong defenders and an upgrade to the CJ - Brewer - Kirilenko trio.
Wing scoring threat – Gordon and Wallace are much better scorers than CJ and AK.
Avoid luxury tax – This lineup actually comes in below the tax threshold, and that even includes the signing of two draft picks.

If KOC can pull this off, he will be GM of the year and -- more importantly -- my hero. This lineup would be championship ready. In fact, if KOC could pull off any of the three scenarios I outlined above, I think the Jazz could be serious contenders next season (and I would expect an honorary position in the organization).

Salary Cap Concerns

2009-01-21T12:27:00.000-08:00

January 21, 2009 -
Reading the recent WSJ interview with Greg Miller got me thinking about the tough decisions the Jazz will face with free agency this summer. Greg reiterated the statement that the Jazz will not go over the luxury tax threshold. If we take him at his word, that means there is no realistic way to keep Williams, Boozer, Memo, and AK. At least one of those players will have to go before the trade deadline next year.

The salary cap and luxury tax threshold for the 2008-09 season are $58.7M and $71.2M respectively. For the sake of argument, let’s assume those numbers remain the same next year (normally they increase annually as league revenues continue to grow, but the down economy will likely have an impact, and they could actually drop).

If no one opts out, the core of Williams, AK, Booz, and Memo will make a combined $51.9M, leaving just under $20M to round out the roster. Other guaranteed contracts (Brewer, CJ, Fess, Harp, Korver, and Koufos) total $20.3M, already putting the Jazz over the luxury tax limit and still needing to sign 3 additional players just to meet the roster minimum of 13.

I haven’t even mentioned Millsap yet. He is playing for $797K this season and will likely get offers from other teams in the $6-10M range, despite the fact that he is an RFA. Even if no team wants to use their cap space this summer (something I don’t expect to happen), at bare minimum he will get full mid-level offers (currently $5.6M). The Jazz would be stupid to let him go for nothing, and I can’t imagine they would.

The way I see it, the Jazz have two primary options to avoid the luxury tax while keeping the majority of the core intact for a championship run. One is to trade Boozer, and the other is to trade AK. We’ll come back to that in a minute.

In addition to moving AK or Booz, the Jazz must do a few more things to stay under the tax threshold:

Dump Harpring’s $6M salary – Although I hate to lose his toughness and leadership, Harp’s salary is far too high for his level of contribution. The ideal situation would be to trade him for a 2nd-round pick to a team that needed him. Worst case would be to include a draft pick to convince another team to take him.

Sign Millsap for less than $8M – Since he is an RFA and not many teams are projected to have cap space this summer, the Jazz should be able to re-sign Sap for less than he might otherwise command. While I’m sure they will match any reasonable offer he receives, the Jazz need to keep his first year in the $7M+ range to avoid luxury tax problems.

Sign Knight and/or Price for less than $3M combined – Both players will be unrestricted FAs this summer. If the Jazz want to bring both of them back, they need to keep the combined deals under $3M. Otherwise, they need to choose one and then plan to sign a 3rd PG for the minimum.

Now back to the tough decisions. As I mentioned in my opening paragraph, the Jazz simply can’t afford to keep DWill, Memo, Booz, and AK at their current salaries. Williams is the franchise player, so he is untouchable. End of discussion. Memo (unless he demands a serious raise this summer) is a great value, and I wouldn’t let him go either. With his size, shooting ability, and clutch play, he can do too many things that Jazz would really struggle to replace if he were gone. Memo’s limitation is on defense, which leads us to Boozer…

While a great complementary combo on offense, Boozer and Memo are just too weak defensively as a PF/C tandem for the Jazz to win the title. Neither is a shot blocker or good help defender, and this leaves the middle too wide open. Championship teams play tough defense, and I just don’t see that happening with the existing frontcourt.

Boozer can score and rebound with he best in the league. Guys who can put up 20 points and grab 10 boards on a consistent basis are extremely tough to come by. Fortunately for the Jazz, they happen to have another one already on the roster who, by the way, also plays great defense, blocks shots, hustles on every play, has proven quite durable, is younger, and will probably be $5-10M per year less expensive.

If we look at the 22 games that Millsap has started in Boozer’s absence and remove the 2 where he played limited minutes due to injury (Detroit and Dallas), his averages over the remaining 20 games are as follows:

Millsap – 19.5 pts, 12.3 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 blks, 1.6 stls, 55.6% FG, 71.6% FT, 37.1 mins

Compare those with Boozer’s averages for the 12 games he played prior to his injury (a relatively small sample size, but they are close enough to his complete 2007-08 stats to make for a valid comparison):

Boozer – 20.5 pts, 11.7 rbs, 2.7 asts, 0.3 blks, 0.9 stls, 55.9% FG, 72.7% FT, 33.8 mins

Millsap is in a virtual statistical dead heat with Boozer in every category except blocks and steals, where he is far superior. Looking at these numbers and considering Millsap is only in his third season makes the potential loss of Boozer much more palatable.

If the Jazz believe that Boozer – defensive deficiencies be damned – must be retained at all costs, the other alternative is to trade Kirilenko. AK is a unique talent who can change a game by himself, but he’s far too inconsistent for his monster salary. Unfortunately, this makes him more difficult to move considering his deal goes through 2011.

Deciding who to trade may well come down to how much the Jazz can get in return. So what should they try to get back in exchange for one of their top players? This is the easy part. The Jazz desperately need consistent scoring and perimeter defense from the wing positions. Brewer, CJ, Korver, and Kirilenko, can all look brilliant at times, but none of them command a double team or require a defense to focus on stopping them. Inserting an all-star-caliber shooting guard or small forward into this team makes them immediate contenders. On my next entry, I’ll outline some trades I would seriously pursue.

About This Site

2009-01-01T23:25:00.000-08:00

Welcome to UTJazzBlog.com.

This site is a constructive way for me to channel my fanatical Jazz fanhood without boring my wife to death.

By way of introduction, I'm a former Utah Jazz season ticket holder who now lives in the Phoenix area. While I've grown to like the Suns, I'll always be a Jazz fan at heart. Fortunately with the help of NBA League Pass, a DVR, and a patient wife, I'm still able to catch most games each year.

I have no connections with the Jazz front office, no access to players, and no media credentials. I'm just a passionate fan with a decent knowledge of the game and extremely remedial HTML skills, who would love to have Kevin O'Connor's job someday.

You can generally expect me to post updated content at least once a week, and more frequently during the season. I hope you enjoy my thoughts, analysis, speculation, and occasional feature articles. I welcome your feedback on my posts, and you're welcome to disagree with my opinions -- so long as you are OK with being wrong. :)

Thanks for visiting my site, and please let me know if you have any suggestions. Go Jazz!

-Clint Lowry

One housekeeping rule: If you choose to leave comments, please keep them clean. My family reads this (or at least they pretend to).

Terms of Use

2009-01-01T14:19:00.000-08:00

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